Impact of soil erosion on production in cropping systems .I. Development and validation of a simulation model

A computer simulation model to analyse risks of soil erosion to long-term crop production is described. The model, called PERFECT, simulates interactions between soil type, climate, fallow management strategy and crop sequence. It contains six main modules; data input, water balance, crop growth, crop residue, erosion and model output. Modules are arranged in a framework that allows alternative modules to be used as required for the potential range of applications. The model contains dynamic crop growth models for wheat, sorghum and sunflower. Validation of PERFECT against small catchment and contour bay data collected throughout Queensland showed that PERFECT explained up to 84% of the variation in total available soil water, 89% of the variation in daily runoff, and up to 75% of the variation in grain yield. Average annual soil erosion was accurately predicted but daily erosion totals were less accurate due to the exclusion of rainfall intensity in erosion prediction. Variability in climate dominates agricultural production in the subtropical region of Australia. The validated model can be coupled with long-term climate and soils databases to simulate probabilities of production and erosion risks due to climatic variability. It provides a method to determine the impact of soil erosion on long-term productivity.