Impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: new evidence from the autoregressive distributed lag approach

Mohammad Azhar Ud Din1, Shaukat Haseen1
1Department of Economics, AMU, Aligarh, India

Tóm tắt

Climate change constitutes one of the most critical challenges of the contemporary period and can affect various sectors of economies across the globe, the agricultural sector is not an exception. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on India’s agricultural sector from 1980 to 2020. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach was utilized to determine the short-run and long-run relationships between variables such as carbon dioxide emissions, temperature, energy utilization, and fertilizer consumption. The ARDL method and the Johansen and Juselius cointegration test both supported the existence of a significant and long relationship among the selected variables. The estimated short- and long-run findings showed that carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), temperature, and energy consumption affect agricultural yield positively and significantly. These findings have several implications for the Indian economy. With a large population dependent on agriculture, improved productivity can directly impact food security and rural income, consequently leading to the country’s overall economic development. Enhanced agricultural output due to these factors may potentially lead to surplus production, allowing India to export more agricultural produce. This can positively impact the country’s trade balance and generate revenue through exports.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Adams RM, Hurd BH, Lenhart S, Leary N (1998) Effects of global climate change on agriculture: an interpretative review. Climate Res 11(1):19–30 Adamu MK, Negeso KD (2020) Effect of climate change on agricultural output in Ethiopia. J Eco Dev Environ People 9(3):6 Agba DZ, Adewara SO, Adama JI, Adzer KT, Atoyebi GO (2017) Analysis of the effects of climate change on crop output in Nigeria. Am J Climate Change 6(3):554–571. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2017.63028 Ahsan F, Chandio AA, Fang W (2020) Climate change impacts on cereal crops production in Pakistan: evidence from cointegration analysis. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 12(2):257–269. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2019-0020 Almazroui M, Saeed S, Saeed F, Islam MN, Ismail M (2020) Projections of precipitation and temperature over the South Asian countries in CMIP6. Earth Systems and Environment 4(2):297–320 Amponsah L, Kofi Hoggar G, Yeboah Asuamah S (2015) Climate change and agriculture: modelling the impact of carbon dioxide emission on cereal yield in Ghana. Agric Food Sci Res 2(2):32–38 Baig IA, Chandio AA, Ozturk I, Kumar P, Khan ZA, Salam MdA (2022) Assessing the long- and short-run asymmetrical effects of climate change on rice production: empirical evidence from India. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29(23):34209–34230. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-18014 Bandara JS, Cai Y (2014) The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia. Economic Analysis and Policy 44(4):451–465. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2014.09.005 Barnwal P, Kotani K (2013) Climatic impacts across agricultural crop yield distributions: an application of quantile regression on rice crops in Andhra Pradesh, India. Ecol Econ 87:95–109 Ben Zaied Y, Ben Cheikh N (2015) Long-run versus short-run analysis of climate change impacts on agricultural crops. Environ Model Assess 20(3):259–271. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-014-9432-4 Birthal PS, Khan T, Negi DS, Agarwal S (2014) Impact of climate change on yields of major food crops in India: implications for food security. Agric Econ Res Rev 27(2):145–155 Bouznit M, Aïssaoui R (2023) The impacts of climate change factors and innovative capabilities on food production in Algeria: evidence from ARDL model. Environ Dev Sustain. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03627-w Brown RL, Durbin J, Evans JM (1975) Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. J Roy Stat Soc: Ser B (methodol) 37(2):149–163 Ceesay EK, Ben Omar Ndiaye M (2022) Climate change, food security and economic growth nexus in the Gambia: evidence from an econometrics analysis. Research in Globalization 5:100089. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2022.100089 Chandio AA, Jiang Y, Rehman A, Rauf A (2020a) Short and long-run impacts of climate change on agriculture: an empirical evidence from China. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 12(2):201–221. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-05-2019-0026 Chandio AA, Magsi H, Ozturk I (2020b) Examining the effects of climate change on rice production: case study of Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27(8):7812–7822. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-07486-9 Chandio AA, Ozturk I, Akram W, Ahmad F, Mirani AA (2020c) Empirical analysis of climate change factors affecting cereal yield: evidence from Turkey. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27(11):11944–11957. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-07739-y Chandio AA, Jiang Y, Fatima T, Ahmad F, Ahmad M, Li J (2022) Assessing the impacts of climate change on cereal production in Bangladesh: evidence from ARDL modeling approach. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management. 14(2):125–147 Deressa T, Hassan R, Poonyth D (2005) Measuring the impact of climate change on South African agriculture: the case of sugarcane growing regions. Agrekon 44(4):524–542 Dickey DA, Fuller WA (1981) Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica J Econometric Soc 49(4):1057–1072 Dumrul Y, Kilicaslan Z (2017) Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: empirical evidence from ARDL approach for Turkey. Journal of Business Economics and Finance 6(4):336–347 Eckstein D, Künzel V, Schäfer L (2021) The Global Climate Risk Index 2021. Germanwatch, Bonn Edoja PE, Aye GC, Abu O (2016) Dynamic relationship among CO2 emission, agricultural productivity and food security in Nigeria. Cogent Economics & Finance 4(1):1204809. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2016.1204809 Engle RF, Granger CW (1987) Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica 55(2):251–276 Eregha PB, Babatolu JS, Akinnubi RT (2014) Climate change and crop production in Nigeria: an error correction modelling approach. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 4(2):297–311 Eshete ZS, Mulatu DW, Gatiso TG (2020) CO2 emissions, agricultural productivity and welfare in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 12(5):687–704. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-07-2019-0046 Gul A, Xiumin W, Chandio AA, Rehman A, Siyal SA, Asare I (2022) Tracking the effect of climatic and non-climatic elements on rice production in Pakistan using the ARDL approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29(21):31886–31900 Guntukula R (2020) Assessing the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: EVIDENCE from major crop yields. J Public Aff 20(1):e2040. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2040 Gupta A, Pathak H (2016). Climate change and Indian Agriculture: A Thematic Report of National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change (NMSKCC) under National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)—Google Search (n.d.). Retrieved12 Jan 2023 from Google Janjua PZ, Samad G, Khan N (2014) Climate change and wheat production in Pakistan: an autoregressive distributed lag approach. NJAS Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences 68:13–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.njas.2013.11.002 Johansen S (1988) Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. J Econ Dyn Control 12(2/3):231–254 Johansen S, Juselius K (1990) Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bull Econ Stat 52(2):169–210 Kaufmann RK, Snell SE (1997) A biophysical model of corn yield: integrating climatic and social determinants. Am J Agr Econ 79(1):178–190. https://doi.org/10.2307/1243952 Li X, Takahashi T, Suzuki N, Kaiser HM (2011) The impact of climate change on maize yields in the United States and China. Agric Syst 104(4):348–353. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2010.12.006 Lili H, Shuwen N, Li M, Jing Q (2011) The empirical analysis of the relationship between agricultural economic growth and energy consumption in regions of China, computer distributed control and intelligent environmental monitoring (CDCIEM). 2011 International Conference on IEEE, pp 1418–1426 Mishra D, Sahu NC (2014) Economic impact of climate change on agriculture sector of coastal Odisha. APCBEE Proc 10:241–245 Nasrullah M, Rizwanullah M, Yu X, Jo H, Sohail MT, Liang L (2021) Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to study the impact of climate change and other factors on rice production in South Korea. Journal of Water and Climate Change 12(6):2256–2270. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.030 Nath PK, Behera B (2011) A critical review of impact of and adaptation to climate change in developed and developing economies. Environ Dev Sustain 13(1):141–162. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-010-9253-9 Noorunnahar M, Mila FA, Ila Haque FT (2023) Does the supply response of maize suffer from climate change in Bangladesh? Empirical evidence using ARDL approach. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research 14:100667. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2023.100667 Pesaran MH, Shin Y (1998) An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Econom Soc Monogr 31:371–413 Pesaran MH, Shin Y, Smith RJ (2001) Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J Appl Economet 16(3):289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616 Phillips PC, Perron P (1988) Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika 75(2):335–346 Praveen B, Sharma P (2020) Climate change and its impacts on Indian agriculture: an econometric analysis. J Public Aff 20(1):e1972. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.1972 Raeeni AAG, Hosseini S, Moghaddasi R (2019) How energy consumption is related to agricultural growth and export: an econometric analysis on Iranian data. Energy Rep 5:50–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2018.11.005 Raju G, Phanindra G (2018) Climate sensitivity on rice yield: evidence from Telangana. India 31:199 Rehman A, Chandio AA, Hussain I, Jingdong L (2019) Fertilizer consumption, water availability and credit distribution: major factors affecting agricultural productivity in Pakistan. J Saudi Soc Agric Sci 18(3):269–274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jssas.2017.08.002 Swart R, Robinson J, Cohen S (2003) Climate change and sustainable development: expanding the options. Climate Policy 3(sup1):S19–S40 Van Huong N, Minh Nguyet BT, Van Hung H, Minh Duc H, Van Chuong N, Do Tri M, Van Hien D, Van Hien P (2022) Economic impact of climate change on agriculture: a case of Vietnam. AgBioforum 24(1):1–12 Wang J, Vanga SK, Saxena R, Orsat V, Raghavan V (2018) Effect of climate change on the yield of cereal crops: a review. Climate 6(2):41 Warrick RA (1988) Carbon dioxide, climatic change and agriculture. Geogr J 154(2):221–233. https://doi.org/10.2307/633848 Warsame AA, Sheik-Ali IA, Ali AO, Sarkodie SA (2021) Climate change and crop production nexus in Somalia: an empirical evidence from ARDL technique. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28(16):19838–19850. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-11739-3 World Bank (2020) World development indicators. The World Bank Group, Washington, DC Xiang X, Solaymani S (2022) Change in cereal production caused by climate change in Malaysia. Eco Inform 70:101741. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101741 Xiang H, Ch P, Nawaz MA, Chupradit S, Fatima A, Sadiq M (2021) Integration and economic viability of fueling the future with green hydrogen: an integration of its determinants from renewable economics. Int J Hydrogen Energy 46(77):38145–38162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2021.09.067 Yawson DO, Mulholland BJ, Ball T, Adu MO, Mohan S, White PJ (2017) Effect of climate and agricultural land use changes on UK feed barley production and food security to the 2050s. Land 6(4):74 Zhai S, Song G, Qin Y, Ye X, Lee J (2017) Modeling the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield in inland China: an autoregressive distributed lag approach. PLoS ONE 12(9):e0184474