Di cư, điều kiện kinh tế - xã hội và tội phạm: góc nhìn theo chiều ngang so với mô hình chuỗi thời gian theo chiều ngang

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 52 - Trang 1779-1805 - 2017
Luigi M. Solivetti1
1Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy

Tóm tắt

Mục đích của nghiên cứu này là để xác minh xem có mối liên hệ giữa di cư nước ngoài và tội phạm hay không. Trong quá trình này, nghiên cứu cũng xem xét một số khía cạnh vệ tinh xoay quanh mối liên hệ khả dĩ này: phạm vi các hành vi phạm tội bị ảnh hưởng bởi di cư, mối quan hệ giữa tội phạm của người nhập cư và tội phạm của người bản địa, cũng như việc tác động của di cư đến tội phạm là trực tiếp hay gián tiếp. Nghiên cứu hiện tại đã giải quyết những vấn đề này bằng cả phân tích theo chiều ngang và phân tích dài hạn, trong đó phân tích dài hạn bao gồm một công cụ. Nghiên cứu dựa trên dữ liệu của các tỉnh ở Ý. Ý là một trường hợp quan trọng để nghiên cứu mối quan hệ giữa di cư và tội phạm, vì ở quốc gia này, sự gia tăng di cư nước ngoài diễn ra nhanh chóng và với nhịp độ khá sốt sắng. Những phát hiện từ phân tích theo chiều ngang cho thấy cường độ tội phạm bị ảnh hưởng bởi các yếu tố không thay đổi theo thời gian và chỉ bị ảnh hưởng một phần bởi di cư. Ngược lại, phân tích theo chiều dài cho thấy sự thay đổi trong di cư có tác động tích cực đến cả các tội phạm nghiêm trọng nhất và phổ biến nhất, đối với tội phạm tài sản cũng như tội phạm bạo lực. Không có bằng chứng nào về tác động gián tiếp của di cư đối với tội phạm hay mối liên hệ với tội phạm của người bản địa. Trái ngược với những tài liệu trước đây liên quan đến Hoa Kỳ, Canada và Australia, những kết quả này gợi ý rằng một làn sóng di cư gia tăng có thể ảnh hưởng đến tội phạm. Về phương pháp, những phát hiện này cho thấy rằng các mô hình phân tích đồng thời tiêu chuẩn có thể bị thiên lệch do các yếu tố không được quan sát và vì vậy các mô hình chuỗi thời gian theo chiều ngang có thể cung cấp những lợi ích đáng kể.

Từ khóa

#di cư #tội phạm #phân tích theo chiều ngang #phân tích dài hạn #điều kiện xã hội - kinh tế

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