Xác định các quy trình và lĩnh vực chính trong tương tác giữa khí hậu và hệ thống kinh tế xã hội: một bài tổng quan hướng tới việc tích hợp hệ thống Trái đất – con người

Progress in Earth and Planetary Science - Tập 8 - Trang 1-23 - 2021
Kaoru Tachiiri1, Xuanming Su1, Ken’ichi Matsumoto1,2
1Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
2Faculty of Economics, Toyo University, Tokyo, Japan

Tóm tắt

Để xác định các quy trình và lĩnh vực chính liên quan đến sự tương tác giữa Trái đất và hệ thống kinh tế xã hội, chúng tôi xem xét các nghiên cứu hiện có về các quy trình/lĩnh vực mà qua đó khí hậu ảnh hưởng tới hệ thống kinh tế xã hội, từ đó ảnh hưởng trở lại đến khí hậu. Đối với mỗi quy trình/lĩnh vực, chúng tôi xem xét các tác động vật lý và sinh thái trực tiếp và, nếu có, tác động đến kinh tế và phát thải khí nhà kính (GHG). Dựa trên bài tổng quan này, lĩnh vực đất được xác định là quy trình có tác động đáng kể nhất đến phát thải GHG, trong khi năng suất lao động có tác động lớn nhất đến tổng sản phẩm quốc nội (GDP). Mặt khác, lĩnh vực năng lượng, do sự gia tăng nhu cầu về làm mát, sẽ có tác động làm tăng phát thải GHG. Tài nguyên nước, sự gia tăng mực nước biển, thảm họa thiên nhiên, các dịch vụ hệ sinh thái, và các bệnh tật cũng cho thấy tiềm năng có ảnh hưởng đáng kể đến phát thải GHG và GDP, mặc dù đối với hầu hết các yếu tố này, một tác động lớn chỉ được báo cáo bởi một số lượng nghiên cứu hạn chế. Vì vậy, cần có thêm nhiều nghiên cứu để xác minh ảnh hưởng của chúng từ góc độ phản hồi đến khí hậu. Ngoài ra, mặc dù thiệt hại kinh tế phát sinh từ di cư và xung đột là không chắc chắn, nhưng chúng nên được coi là những quy trình có thể gây hại.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

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