Hysteresis and irreversibility of global extreme precipitation to anthropogenic CO2 emission

Alexander, 2006, Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res., 111, 10.1029/2005JD006290 An, 2021, Global cooling hiatus driven by an AMOC overshoot in a carbon dioxide removal scenario, Earth's Future, 9, 10.1029/2021EF002165 An, 2021, Rate‐dependent hysteresis of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation system and its asymmetric loop, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, 10.1029/2020GL090132 An, 2022, General circulation and global heat transport in a quadrupling CO2 pulse experiment, Sci. Rep., 12, 10.1038/s41598-022-15905-0 Armstrong McKay, 2022, Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, 10.1126/science.abn7950 Ayugi, 2022, East African population exposure to precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming levels based on CMIP6 models, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5d9d Boucher, 2012, Reversibility in an Earth System model in response to CO 2 concentration changes, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024013 Cai, 2019, The social cost of carbon with economic and climate risks, J. Polit. Econ., 127, 2684, 10.1086/701890 Caldeira, 2013, Projections of the pace of warming following an abrupt increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034039 Cao, 2011, Why is there a short-term increase in global precipitation in response to diminished CO 2 forcing?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, 10.1029/2011GL046713 Carleton, 2016, Social and economic impacts of climate, Science, 353, 10.1126/science.aad9837 Ceola, 2014, Satellite nighttime lights reveal increasing human exposure to floods worldwide, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7184, 10.1002/2014GL061859 Chadwick, 2013, Asymmetries in tropical rainfall and circulation patterns in idealised CO2 removal experiments, Clim. Dynam., 40, 295, 10.1007/s00382-012-1287-2 Chen, 2021, Significant increase of the global population exposure to increased precipitation extremes in the future, Earth's Future, 9, 10.1029/2020EF001941 Chen, 2020, Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 10.1088/1748-9326/ab751f Donat, 2016, More extreme precipitation in the world's dry and wet regions, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 508, 10.1038/nclimate2941 2012 Fischer, 2013, Simulated and projected climate extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin, South China, using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 2988, 10.1002/joc.3643 Gao, 2020 Garbe, 2020, The hysteresis of the antarctic ice sheet, Nature, 585, 538, 10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5 Hawkins, 2011, Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, 10.1029/2011GL047208 Hunke, 2010, 76pp Hurrell, 2013, The community earth system model: a framework for collaborative research, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1339, 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1 2013, 1535 2018, Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways 2021, Summary for policymakers Jo, 2022, Hysteresis behaviors in East Asian extreme precipitation frequency to CO 2 pathway, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, 10.1029/2022GL099814 Jones, 2015, Future population exposure to US heat extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 652, 10.1038/nclimate2631 Keller, 2018, The carbon dioxide removal model intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev. (GMD), 11, 1133, 10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018 Kim, 2022, Widespread irreversible changes in surface temperature and precipitation in response to CO2 forcing, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 834, 10.1038/s41558-022-01452-z Kug, 2022, Hysteresis of the intertropical convergence zone to CO2 forcing, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 47, 10.1038/s41558-021-01211-6 Lawrence, 2011, Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in version 4 of the community land model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 3, 10.1029/2011MS000045 Liu, 2020, Global socioeconomic risk of precipitation extremes under climate change, Earth's Future, 8, 10.1029/2019EF001331 Lu, 2010, Quantifying contributions to polar warming amplification in an idealized coupled general circulation model, Clim. Dynam., 34, 669, 10.1007/s00382-009-0673-x MacDougall, 2013, Reversing climate warming by artificial atmospheric carbon-dioxide removal: can a Holocene-like climate be restored?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5480, 10.1002/2013GL057467 Mertz, 2009, Adaptation to climate change in developing countries, Environ. Manag., 43, 743, 10.1007/s00267-008-9259-3 Mondal, 2021, Doubling of the population exposed to drought over South Asia: CMIP6 multi-model-based analysis, Sci. Total Environ., 771, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145186 Mondal, 2022, Projected urban exposure to extreme precipitation over South Asia, Sci. Total Environ., 822, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153664 Neale, 2010, Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 5.0), Tech. Note NCAR/TN- 486+STR, Natl. Cent. for Atmos. Oh, 2022, Contrasting hysteresis behaviors of northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation to CO 2 pathways, Earth's Future, 10, 10.1029/2021EF002623 Ohba, 2014, Statistical parameterization expressing ENSO variability and reversibility in response to CO2 concentration changes, J. Clim., 27, 398, 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00279.1 O'Neill, 2014, A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways, Clim. Change, 122, 387, 10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2 Paik, 2020, Determining the anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to the observed intensification of extreme precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, 10.1029/2019GL086875 Peng, 2020, Observationally constrained projection of the reduced intensification of extreme climate events in Central Asia from 0.5 °C less global warming, Clim. Dynam., 54, 543, 10.1007/s00382-019-05014-6 Pinskwar, 2019, Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991-2015 versus 1961-1990, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 135, 773, 10.1007/s00704-018-2372-1 Pollard, 2005, Hysteresis in cenozoic antarctic ice-sheet variations, Global Planet. Change, 45, 9, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.09.011 Rahmstorf, 2005, Thermohaline circulation hysteresis: a model intercomparison, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, 10.1029/2005GL023655 Shen, 2022, Changes in population exposure to extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Delta, China, Climate Services, 27, 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100317 Shi, 2021, Impacts and socioeconomic exposures of global extreme precipitation events in 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer climates, Sci. Total Environ., 766, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142665 Skific, 2009, Attribution of projected changes in atmospheric moisture transport in the arctic: a self-organizing map perspective, J. Clim., 22, 4135, 10.1175/2009JCLI2645.1 Smith, 2010, 1 Song, 2022, Asymmetrical response of summer rainfall in East Asia to CO2 forcing, Sci. Bull., 67, 213, 10.1016/j.scib.2021.08.013 Trenberth, 2007, Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change Trenberth, 2011, Changes in precipitation with climate change, Clim. Res., 47, 123, 10.3354/cr00953 2017 Westra, 2013, Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation, J. Clim., 26, 3904, 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1 Wu, 2010, Temporary acceleration of the hydrological cycle in response to a CO 2 rampdown, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, 10.1029/2010GL043730 Yeh, 2021, Contrasting response of hydrological cycle over land and ocean to a changing CO2 pathway, NPJ Climate Atmosphere Sci., 4, 53, 10.1038/s41612-021-00206-6 Zhan, 2019, Observed exposure of population and gross domestic product to extreme precipitation events in the poyang lake basin, China, Atmosphere, 10, 817, 10.3390/atmos10120817 Zhang, 2019, Significant increases in extreme precipitation and the associations with global warming over the global land monsoon regions, J. Clim., 32, 8465, 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0662.1 Zhang, 2020, Increasing impacts from extreme precipitation on population over China with global warming, Sci. Bull., 65, 243, 10.1016/j.scib.2019.12.002 Zhang, 2018, Reduced exposure to extreme precipitation from 0.5 °C less warming in global land monsoon regions, Nat. Commun., 9, 3153, 10.1038/s41467-018-05633-3 Zhao, 2021, Population exposure to precipitation extremes in the Indus River Basin at 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C warming levels, Adv. Clim. Change Res., 12, 199, 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.005 Zickfeld, 2016, On the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO 2 emissions during periods of net negative CO 2 emissions, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055006