Hydro-economic modelling in an uncertain world: Integrating costs and benefits of water quality management

Global Water Partnership. 2000. Integrated Water Resources Management, Global Water Partnership, Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), Stockholm Harou, 2009, Hydro-economic models: concepts, design, applications, and future prospects, J. Hydrol., 375, 627, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.037 Pulido-Velazquez, 2008, Hydro-economic river basin modelling: the application of a holistic surface-groundwater model to assess opportunity costs of water use in Spain, Ecol. Econ., 66, 51, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.12.016 Andreu, 1996, AQUATOOL, a generalized decision-support system for water-resources planning and operational management, J. Hydrol., 177, 269, 10.1016/0022-1694(95)02963-X Rosegrant, 2000, Integrated economic-hydrologic water modeling at the basin scale: the Maipo river basin, Agric. Econ., 24, 33 Ahrends, 2008, Coupled hydrological-economic modelling for optimised irrigated cultivation in a semi-arid catchment of West Africa, Environ. Model. Softw., 23, 385, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.08.002 Volk, 2008, Integrated ecological-economic modelling of water pollution abatement management options in the Upper Ems River Basin, Ecol. Econ., 66, 66, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.01.016 Medellín-Azuara, 2009, Virtues of simple hydro-economic optimization: Baja California, Mexico, J. Environ. Manage., 90, 3470, 10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.05.032 Cools, 2011, Coupling a hydrological water quality model and an economic optimization model to set up a cost-effective emission reduction scenario for nitrogen, Environ. Model. Softw., 26, 44, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.04.017 George, 2011, An integrated hydro-economic modelling framework to evaluate water allocation strategies II: Scenario assessment, Agric. Water Manage., 98, 747, 10.1016/j.agwat.2010.12.005 Ward, 2006, Integrated economic, hydrologic, and institutional analysis of policy responses to mitigate drought impacts in Rio Grande Basin, J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage., 132, 488, 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2006)132:6(488) Heinz, 2007, Hydro-economic modeling in River Basin management: implications and applications for the European water framework directive, Water Resour. Manage., 21, 1103, 10.1007/s11269-006-9101-8 McKinney, 1999 Brouwer, 2008, Integrated hydro-economic modelling: approaches, key issues and future research directions, Ecol. Econ., 66, 16, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.02.009 Cai, 2008, Implementation of holistic water resources-economic optimization models for river basin management—reflective experiences, Environ. Model. Softw., 23, 2, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.03.005 Kragt, 2010, 5 Grové, 2011, Review of whole-farm economic modelling for irrigation farming, Water SA, 37, 789 Cai, 2003, An integrated hydrologic−agronomic−economic model for River Basin management, J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage., 129, 4, 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2003)129:1(4) Varis, 1999, Learning Bayesian decision analysis by doing: lessons from environmental and natural resources management, Ecol. Model., 119, 177, 10.1016/S0304-3800(99)00061-7 Borsuk, 2004, A Bayesian network of eutrophication models for synthesis, prediction, and uncertainty analysis, Ecol. Model., 173, 219, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2003.08.020 McCann, 2006, Bayesian belief networks: applications in ecology and natural resource management, Can. J. For. Res., 36, 3053, 10.1139/x06-238 Landuyt, 2012, 1 Y. Fujita, P. de Ruiter, G.W. Heil. 2007. Integrated eco-hydrological modeling of fens: a brief review and future perspectives, in: Presented at Wetlands: Monitoring, Modelling and Management. Proceedings of the International Conference on Wetlands W3M. London, UK. Zhou, 2008, Integrated ecological assessment of biophysical wetland habitat in water catchments: linking hydro-ecological modelling with geo-information techniques, Ecol. Model., 214, 411, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.03.014 Brouwer, 2004, Integrated ecological, economic and social impact assessment of alternative flood control policies in the Netherlands, Ecol. Econ., 50, 1, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.01.020 Moxey, 1995, The economic component of NELUP, J. Environ. Plan. Manage., 38, 21, 10.1080/09640569513093 Rushton, 1995, The ecological modelling system of NELUP, J. Environ. Plan. Manage., 38, 35, 10.1080/09640569513101 Hanley, 2009, Pricing nature Shabman, 2000, Environmental valuation and its economic critics, J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage., 126, 382, 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2000)126:6(382) Ticehurst, 2007, A Bayesian network approach for assessing the sustainability of coastal lakes in New South Wales, Australia, Environ. Model. Softw., 22, 1129, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.03.003 Barton, 2008, Bayesian belief networks as a meta-modelling tool in integrated river basin management—pros and cons in evaluating nutrient abatement decisions under uncertainty in a Norwegian river basin, Ecol. Econ., 66, 91, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.02.012 Bateman, 2006, Analysing the agricultural costs and non-market benefits of implementing the water framework directive, J. Agric. Econ., 57, 221, 10.1111/j.1477-9552.2006.00049.x I.J Bateman, R. Brouwer, H. Davies, B.H. Day, A. Deflandre, S. Di Falco, S. Georgiou, D. Hadley, M. Hutchins, A.P. Jones, D. Kay, G. Leeks, M. Lewis, A.A. Lovett, C. Neal, P. Posen, D. Rigby, E. Sheldon, D. Turnbull, R.K. Turner. 2006. Catchment Hydrology, Resources, Economic And Management (ChREAM): Integrated Modelling of Rural Land Use & Farm Income Impacts of the WFD and its Potential Non-Market Benefits. In CSERGE Working Paper EDM 06-05, IIED: London, UK. pp. Bateman, 2009, Reducing gain–loss asymmetry: a virtual reality choice experiment valuing land use change, J. Environ. Econ. Manage., 58, 106, 10.1016/j.jeem.2008.05.003 I.J. Bateman, A. Binner, E. Coombes, B. Day, S. Ferrini, C. Fezzi, M. Hutchins,P. Posen. 2010. Integrated and spatially explicit modelling of the economic value of complex environmental change and its knock-on effects, in: Fourth World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists, Montreal, Canada, June 28-July 2 2010. Kragt, 2011, An integrated approach to linking economic valuation and catchment modelling, Environ. Model. Softw., 26, 92, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.04.002 DHHS. 2008. Triennial Data Review for the Moulting Bay Growing Area, Tasmanian Shellfish Quality Assurance Program, Department of Health and Human Services, Hobart, Tasmania ABS. 2011 Census. 2012; Available from: 〈http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au〉. North, 2008 N.R.M. North. Our Region's Priorities: 〈http://www.nrmtas.org/regions/north/ourpriorities.shtml〉. 2008 [cited 2008 21 Nov 208]; Available from: 〈http://www.nrmtas.org/regions/north/waterPriority.shtml〉 〈http://www.nrmtas.org/regions/north/ourpriorities.shtml〉. Newham, 2004, A framework for integrated hydrologic, sediment and nutrient export modelling for catchment-scale management, Environ. Model. Softw., 19, 1029, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2003.11.006 I.J. Drewry, L.T.H. Newham, R.S.B. Greene, A.J. Jakeman,B.F.W. Croke. 2005. An Approach To Assess And Manage Nutrient Loads In Two Coastal Catchments Of The Eurobodalla Region, NSW, Australia. Presented at MODSIM 2005, International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Melbourne, 12–15 December 2005 L.T.H. Newham, R.A. Letcher, A.J. Jakeman, A.L. Heathwaite, C.J. Smith,D. Large. 2002. Integrated water quality modelling Ben Chifley dam catchment, Australia, in: Presented at Proceedings of the First Biennial meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs). Integrated Assessment and Decision Support. Lugano, Switzerland, 24–27 June O. Vigiak, L.T.H. Newham, J. Whitford, A. Melland,L. Borselli. 2009. Comparison of landscape approaches to define spatial patterns of hillslope-scale sediment delivery ratio, in MODSIM 2009, International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Cairns, 13-17 July 2009: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand. pp. BOM. Climate Statistics for Australian Locations. 〈http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/index.shtml〉 2012 [cited 2012 viewed: 22-08-2012]; Available from: 〈http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/ca_tas_names.shtml〉 (st Helens) 〈http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_010035.shtml〉 (Cunderdin) 〈http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_010582.shtml〉 (Kojonup). BRS. 2003. Land Use, Tasmania. Version 5. ed. H Department of Primary Industries and Water, TAS, Canberra: Bureau of Rural Sciences: Department of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry, Australia. pp. Map accurate in March 2003. DPIW. TASVEG, the Tasmanian Vegetation Map. 2005. Renard, 1997 Kragt, 2009 Norsys. Netica. 2005. Castelletti, 2007, Bayesian Networks and participatory modelling in water resource management, Environ. Model. Softw., 22, 1075, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.06.003 Beresniak, 2012, A Bayesian network approach to the study of historical epidemiological databases: modelling meningitis outbreaks in the Niger, Bull. World Health Org., 90, 412, 10.2471/BLT.11.086009 Pearl, 1988, 552 Jensen, 1996 Barton, 2012, Bayesian networks in environmental and resource management, Integr. Environ. Assess. Manage., 8, 418, 10.1002/ieam.1327 Pollino, 2007, Parameterisation and evaluation of a Bayesian network for use in an ecological risk assessment, Environ. Model. Softw., 22, 1140, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.03.006 Ticehurst, 2008, Evolution of an approach to integrated adaptive management: the Coastal Lake Assessment and Management (CLAM) tool, Ocean Coast. Manage., 51, 645, 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2008.06.005 Ticehurst, 2008, Integration modelling and decision support: a case study of the Coastal Lake Assessment and Management (CLAM) tool, Math. Comput. Simul., 78, 435, 10.1016/j.matcom.2008.01.024 B. Bryan, Garrod. 2006. Combining Rapid Field Assessment with a Bayesian Network to Prioritise Investment in Watercourse Protection. CSIRO Land and Water Science Report 10/06, CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra. Henriksen, 2008, Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management, J. Environ. Manag., 88, 1025, 10.1016/j.jenvman.2007.05.009 Molina, 2013, Stochastic hydro-economic model for groundwater quality management using Bayesian networks, Water Sci. Technol., 67, 579, 10.2166/wst.2012.598 Carmona, 2011, The use of participatory object-oriented Bayesian networks and agro-economic models for groundwater management in Spain, Water Resour. Manage., 25, 1509, 10.1007/s11269-010-9757-y Dorner, 2007, Multi-objective modelling and decision support using a Bayesian network approximation to a non-point source pollution model, Environ. Model. Softw., 22, 211, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.07.020 Birol, 2009, Optimal management of wetlands: quantifying trade-offs between flood risks, recreation, and biodiversity conservation, Water Resour. Res., 45 Brouwer, 2010, Spatial preference heterogeneity: a choice experiment, Land Econ., 86, 552, 10.3368/le.86.3.552 Beville, 2012, Valuing impacts of the invasive alga Didymosphenia geminata on recreational angling, Ecol. Econ., 82, 1, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.08.004 Kragt, 2011, Using choice experiments to value catchment and estuary health in Tasmania with individual preference heterogeneity, Aust. J. Agric. Resour. Econ., 55, 159, 10.1111/j.1467-8489.2011.00533.x DPIW. 2005. The Conservation of Freshwater Ecosystem Values Data Layers. Hobart: Department of Primary Industries and Water, Water Assessment Branch. pp. Kragt, 2012, Lessons from integrated bio-economic modelling in the Georges catchment, Tasmania DPIW. Natural Values Atlas. 〈http://www.naturalvaluesatlas.dpiw.tas.gov.au〉 2008 [cited 2008 28 August 2008]. R. Mount, C. Crawford, C. Veal, C. White. 2005. Bringing Back the Bay—Marine Habitats and Water Quality in Georges Bay, Break O'Day Natural Resource Management Strategy, Hobart M. Baird, S. Walker, B. Wallace, P. Sakov, J. Parslow, J. Waring. 2002. Simple Estuarine Response Model. In 〈http://www.per.marine.csiro.au/serm/〉, viewed 08-12–2007: CSIRO. pp. Merritt, 2006, Coastal lake assessment and management (CLAM) tool: user guide Kragt, 2012, Attribute framing in choice experiments: how do attribute level descriptions affect value estimates?, Environ. Resour. Econ., 51, 43, 10.1007/s10640-011-9487-5 Kragt, 2013, The effects of changing cost vectors on choices and scale heterogeneity, Environ. Resour. Econ., 54, 201, 10.1007/s10640-012-9587-x Voinov, 2010, Model integration and the role of data, Environ. Model. Softw., 25, 965, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.02.005 Freeman, B.,R. Dumsday. 2003. Evaluation of Environmental Services Provided by Farm Forestry—A Discussion Paper, URS Australia Pty Ltd. FPA. 2007. State of the Forests Tasmania 2006, Forest Practices Authority, Hobart ABARE. 2009. Australian Forest and Wood Products Statistics, September and December quarters 2008, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Canberra NLWRA. Australian Natural Resources Atlas. 〈http://www.anra.gov.au/〉 2000 [cited 2008. ABS. Agricultural State Profile, Tasmania, 2004-05. Australian Bureau of Statistics 2006. G. Lliff, 2002. George River Catchment: Plan for Rivercare Works for the Upper Catchment, North George and South George Rivers, George River Catchment Coordinator, 2002, St Helens. Sprod, 2003 Tourism Tasmania. 2008. Tasmanian Visitor Survey, 〈www.tourismtasmania.com.au〉, viewed 24 Dec 2009, Hobart Dyack, 2007 Morrison, 2000, Aggregation biases in stated preference studies, Aust. Econ. Pap., 39, 215, 10.1111/1467-8454.00087 Barton, 2002, The transferability of benefit transfer: contingent valuation of water quality improvements in Costa Rica, Ecol. Econ., 42, 147, 10.1016/S0921-8009(02)00044-7 Uusitalo, 2007, Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling, Ecol. Model., 203, 312, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.11.033