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Phương pháp thông minh lai cho phân tích độ tin cậy mờ của các ống thép X100 bị ăn mòn
Tóm tắt
Các bất định nhận thức là rất quan trọng cho thiết kế đáng tin cậy của các ống bị ăn mòn làm từ thép có cấp độ cường độ cao. Trong công trình này, hình dạng của các khuyết tật do ăn mòn và áp suất hoạt động được xem như là các bất định nhận thức trong phân tích độ tin cậy. Một khung phương pháp dựa trên vòng lặp lặp lại hai chiều được trình bày cho phân tích độ tin cậy mờ (FRA) của các ống dẫn bị ăn mòn để đánh giá chỉ số độ tin cậy mờ dựa trên các biến ngẫu nhiên mờ (FRVs) khác nhau. Trong vòng lặp bên trong, phương pháp độ tin cậy bậc nhất liên hợp sử dụng kích thước bước thích ứng được áp dụng để thực hiện phân tích độ tin cậy. Vòng lặp bên ngoài được cấu trúc dựa trên phân tích mờ tương ứng với một tối ưu hóa bầy đàn hạt được điều chỉnh làm công cụ thông minh. Kích thước bước liên hợp tinh chỉnh thích ứng được tính toán một cách động để điều chỉnh vectơ độ nhạy liên hợp trong vòng lặp độ tin cậy. Điều kiện giảm đủ được thỏa mãn dựa trên phương pháp độ tin cậy bậc nhất liên hợp ba điều. Hàm hiệu suất của các ống dẫn bị ăn mòn được xác định dựa trên lý thuyết dòng chảy nhựa dựa trên ứng suất cắt trung bình, yếu tố sức mạnh còn lại và áp suất hoạt động. Hai ví dụ áp dụng về các ống dẫn bị ăn mòn làm từ thép X100 được đưa ra để minh họa tác động của các bất định nhận thức dưới các khuyết tật do ăn mòn. Việc điều tra kết quả đã chỉ ra rằng việc mô hình hóa bất định nhận thức trong phân tích độ tin cậy của các ống dẫn thép cấp cao có thể tạo ra các chỉ số độ tin cậy hợp lý hơn. Thêm vào đó, các kết quả cho thấy rằng các FRVs có ảnh hưởng đáng kể đến việc tính toán chỉ số độ tin cậy mờ, đặc biệt là độ sâu khuyết tật do ăn mòn và áp suất hoạt động (như FRVs). Biện pháp độ nhạy của FRA thể hiện rằng chỉ số độ tin cậy mờ của các ống thép X100 bị ăn mòn nhạy cảm hơn với các phương tiện FRVs.
Từ khóa
#bất định nhận thức #phân tích độ tin cậy mờ #ống thép X100 #khuyết tật do ăn mòn #biến ngẫu nhiên mờTài liệu tham khảo
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