How much can electric aircraft contribute to reaching the Flightpath 2050 CO2 emissions goal? A system dynamics approach for european short haul flights

Journal of Air Transport Management - Tập 112 - Trang 102455 - 2023
Chetan Talwar1,2, Imke Joormann1,2, Raphael Ginster2, Thomas Stefan Spengler1,2
1Cluster of Excellence SE2A - Sustainable and Energy Efficient Aviation, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Germany
2Institute of Automotive Management and Industrial Production, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Mühlenpfordtstraße 23, 38106 Braunschweig, Germany

Tài liệu tham khảo

2020 Agora Verkehrswende, 2017 Airbus, 2019 Alonso, 2014, Investigations on the distribution of air transport traffic and CO2 emissions within the European Union, J. Air Transport. Manag., 36, 85, 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2013.12.019 2018 2020 Avinor, 2018 Badkook, 2016, Study to determine the aircraft on ground (AOG) cost of the boeing 777 fleet at X airline, Am. Sci. Res. J. Eng. Technol. Sci., 25, 51 Bauhaus Luftfahrt, 2021 Bock, 2019, Contrail cirrus radiative forcing for future air traffic, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8163, 10.5194/acp-19-8163-2019 Bourjade, 2017, Leasing and profitability: empirical evidence from the airline industry, Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract., 97, 30, 10.1016/j.tra.2017.01.001 Chapman, 2007, Transport and climate change: a review, J. Transport Geogr., 15, 354, 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2006.11.008 Chen, 2018, A mathematical programming model for aircraft leasing decisions, J. Air Transport. Manag., 69, 15, 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2018.01.005 Csala, 2013, Modeling dynamic transitions in the global air transportation system Dagens industri, 2022 Dray, 2014, Airline fleet replacement funded by a carbon tax: an integrated assessment, Transport Pol., 34, 75, 10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.02.021 Duffner, 2021, Post-lithium-ion battery cell production and its compatibility with lithium-ion cell production infrastructure, Nat. Energy, 6, 123, 10.1038/s41560-020-00748-8 2019 2020 Espinoza, 2017, Sustainability assessment to support governmental biodiesel policy in Colombia: a system dynamics model, J. Clean. Prod., 141, 1145, 10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.09.168 Etminan, 2016, Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: a significant revision of the methane radiative forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43 Eurocontrol, 2018 Eurocontrol, 2019 2017 2021 Faber, 2018 Falk, 2019, Short-run impact of the flight departure tax on air travel, Int. J. Tourism Res., 21, 37, 10.1002/jtr.2239 Forrester, 1980, Tests for building confidence in system dynamics models, 209 Fossilfritt Sverige, 2021 Fukui, 2017, The impact of aviation fuel tax on fuel consumption and carbon emissions: the case of the US airline industry, Transport. Res. Transport Environ., 50, 234, 10.1016/j.trd.2016.10.015 Ghaffarzadegan, 2011, How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process, Syst. Dynam. Rev., 27, 22, 10.1002/sdr.442 Gnadt, 2019, Technical and environmental assessment of all-electric 180-passenger commercial aircraft, Prog. Aero. Sci., 105, 1, 10.1016/j.paerosci.2018.11.002 Goetz, 2004, Air transport globalization, liberalization and sustainability: post-2001 policy dynamics in the United States and Europe, J. Transport Geogr., 12, 265, 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2004.08.007 González, 2016, Environmental impact of aircraft emissions and aviation fuel tax in Japan, J. Air Transport. Manag., 57, 234, 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.08.006 Gössling, 2021, Transition policies for climatically sustainable aviation, Transport Rev., 41, 643, 10.1080/01441647.2021.1938284 Grimme, 2018, Towards more sustainability? – The development of aviation emissions from Germany between 1995 and 2016 Gudmundsson, 2021, Forecasting temporal world recovery in air transport markets in the presence of large economic shocks: the case of COVID-19, J. Air Transport. Manag., 91, 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.102007 Hornung, 2013, Ce-liner - case study for eMobility in air transportation Hou, 2021 2013 2019 2019 Isikveren, 2014 Jin, 2009, Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: incorporating system dynamics into the Ecological Footprint, Ecol. Econ., 68, 2938, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.06.010 Kapmeier, 2018, Wasted paradise? Policies for Small Island States to manage tourism-driven growth while controlling waste generation: the case of the Maldives, Syst. Dynam. Rev., 34, 172, 10.1002/sdr.1607 Karpuk, 2021, Influence of novel airframe technologies on the feasibility of fully-electric regional aviation, Aerospace, 8, 163, 10.3390/aerospace8060163 Kieckhäfer, 2018, Simulation-based analysis of the potential of alternative fuels towards reducing CO2 emissions from aviation, Energies, 11, 186, 10.3390/en11010186 Kim, 2008, Distributed turboelectric propulsion for hybrid wing body aircraft Krenek, 2016, Sustainability-oriented EU Taxes: the Example of a European Carbon-Based Flight Ticket Tax, Empirica, 44, 665, 10.1007/s10663-017-9381-7 Larsson, 2019, International and national climate policies for aviation: a review, Clim. Pol., 19, 787, 10.1080/14693062.2018.1562871 Liehr, 2001, Cycles in the sky: understanding and managing business cycles in the airline market, Syst. Dynam. Rev., 17, 311, 10.1002/sdr.226 Lyneis, 2000, System dynamics for market forecasting and structural analysis, Syst. Dynam. Rev., 16, 3, 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1727(200021)16:1<3::AID-SDR183>3.0.CO;2-5 Mauler, 2021, Battery cost forecasting: a review of methods and results with an outlook to 2050, Energy Environ. Sci., 14, 4712, 10.1039/D1EE01530C Mayor, 2007, The impact of the UK aviation tax on carbon dioxide emissions and visitor numbers, Transport Pol., 14, 507, 10.1016/j.tranpol.2007.07.002 Mckinsey, 2020 Mock, 2014 2008 2017 Pierson, 2013, Cyclical dynamics of airline industry earnings, Syst. Dynam. Rev., 29, 129, 10.1002/sdr.1501 Placke, 2017, Lithium ion, lithium metal, and alternative rechargeable battery technologies: the odyssey for high energy density, J. Solid State Electrochem., 21, 1939, 10.1007/s10008-017-3610-7 Ploetner, 2013, Operating cost estimation for electric-powered transport aircraft Posada, 2017 Qiu, 2020, Carbon tax incentive policy towards air passenger transport carbon emissions reduction, Transport. Res. Transport Environ., 85 2011 Rogge, 2016, Policy mixes for sustainability transitions: an extended concept and framework for analysis, Res. Policy, 45, 1620, 10.1016/j.respol.2016.04.004 Rozman, 2013, System dynamics model for policy scenarios of organic farming development, Organizacija, 45, 212, 10.2478/v10051-012-0016-2 Samara, 2012, The impact of innovation policies on the performance of national innovation systems: a system dynamics analysis, Technovation, 32, 624, 10.1016/j.technovation.2012.06.002 Schäfer, 2019, Technological, economic and environmental prospects of all-electric aircraft, Nat. Energy, 4, 160, 10.1038/s41560-018-0294-x Schmidt, 2014, Implications of aircraft concepts using alternative energy on ground operation Schmitt, 2016 Sgouridis, 2011, Air transportation in a carbon constrained world: long-term dynamics of policies and strategies for mitigating the carbon footprint of commercial aviation, Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract., 45, 1077, 10.1016/j.tra.2010.03.019 Sterman, 2000 Talwar, 2021 Talwar, 2021, A System Dynamics Model of the Air Transport System, (Braunschweig, Germany) The Economist, 2020 Theil, 1966 Trainelli, 2021, Optimal sizing and operation of airport infrastructures in support of electric-powered aviation, Aerospace, 8, 40, 10.3390/aerospace8020040 Umweltbundesamt, 2018 Umweltbundesamt, 2019 Vespermann, 2011, Much ado about nothing? - an analysis of economic impacts and ecologic effects of the EU-emission trading scheme in the aviation industry, Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract., 45, 1066, 10.1016/j.tra.2010.03.005 Von Drachenfels, 2021, Scale-up of pilot line battery cell manufacturing life cycle inventory models for life cycle assessment, Procedia CIRP, 98, 13, 10.1016/j.procir.2020.12.002 yle, 2022