How long will it take? Conceptualizing the temporal dynamics of energy transitions
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Riahi, 2012, Energy pathways for sustainable development. In global energy assessment: toward a sustainable future, 1203
Arnulf, 2012, Energy transitions research insights and cautionary tales, Energy Policy, 50, 8
Miller, 2013, The social dimensions of energy transitions, Sci. Cult., 22, 135, 10.1080/09505431.2013.786989
Fri, 2014, Rethinking energy innovation and social science, Energy Res. Soc. Sci., 1, 183, 10.1016/j.erss.2014.03.010
Sovacool, 2009, Rejecting renewables: the socio-technical impediments to renewable electricity in the United States, Energy Policy, 37, 4500, 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.05.073
Painuly, 2001, Barriers to renewable energy penetration; a framework for analysis, Renew. Energ., 24, 73, 10.1016/S0960-1481(00)00186-5
Sovacool, 2009, Beyond batteries: an examination of the benefits and barriers to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and a vehicle-to-grid (V2G) transition, Energy Policy, 37, 1095, 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.005
Nielsen, 2015, Of ‘White Crows’ and ‘Cash Savers:’ A qualitative study of travel behavior and perceptions of ridesharing in Denmark, Transp. Res. Part A, 78, 113
Giddens, 2009
Parag, 2014, More than filler: middle actors and socio-technical change in the energy system from the middle-out, Energy Res. Soc. Sci., 3, 102, 10.1016/j.erss.2014.07.011
Jefferson, 2014, Closing the gap between energy research and modelling, the social sciences, and modern realities, Energy Res. Soc. Sci., 4, 42, 10.1016/j.erss.2014.08.006
Di Lucia, 2014, Low-carbon district heating in Sweden–Examining a successful energy transition, Energy Res. Soc. Sci., 4, 10, 10.1016/j.erss.2014.08.005
Josef Schubert, 2015, Does political and social feasibility matter in energy scenarios?, Energy Res. Soc. Sci., 7, 43, 10.1016/j.erss.2015.03.003
Laird, 2013, Against transitions? uncovering conflicts in changing energy systems, Sci. Cult., 22, 149, 10.1080/09505431.2013.786992
Hirsh, 2014, History's contributions to energy research and policy, Energy Res. Soc. Sci., 1, 106, 10.1016/j.erss.2014.02.010
Araújo, 2014, The emerging field of energy transitions: progress, challenges, and opportunities, Energy Res. Soc. Sci., 1, 112, 10.1016/j.erss.2014.03.002
Martin, 2010, Energy transitions in historical perspective, 45
Riahi, 2012
Miller, 2013, The social dimensions of energy transitions, Sci. Cult., 22, 135, 10.1080/09505431.2013.786989
Friedrichs, 2013
Hirsh, 2014, History's contributions to energy research and policy, Energy Res. Soc. Sci., 1, 106, 10.1016/j.erss.2014.02.010
Miller, 2015, Socio-energy systems design: a policy framework for energy transitions, Energy Res. Soc. Sci., 6, 29, 10.1016/j.erss.2014.11.004
Peter A. O'Connor, Energy Transitions (The Pardee Papers/No. 12/November 2010).
Fouquet, 2012, Past and prospective energy transitions: Insights from history, Energy Policy, 50, 1, 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.08.014
Smil, 2010, 136
Grubler, 2012, Grand Designs: historical patterns and future scenarios of energy technological change. historical case studies of energy technology innovation chapter 24
Peter A. O'Connor, Energy Transitions (The Pardee Papers/No. 12/November 2010).
Geels, 2005, The dynamics of transitions in socio-technical systems: a multi-level analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860–1930), Technol. Anal. Strat. Manage., 17, 445, 10.1080/09537320500357319
Smil, 2010
Nordhaus, 1996, Do real-output and real-wage measures capture reality?, 27
Pratt, 1981, The Ascent of Oil: The Transition from Coal to Oil in Early Twentieth-Century America, 9
Stern, 1984
National Academy of Engineering, 2013
Arnulf, 1996, Time for a change: on the patterns of diffusion of innovation, Daedalus, 125, 19
Arnulf, 1991, Long waves, technology diffusion, and substitution, Review, 14, 313
Arnulf, 2012, Energy transitions research insights and cautionary tales, Energy Policy, 50, 8
Wilson, 2009
Wilson, 2011, Lessons from the history of technological change for clean energy scenarios and policies, Nat. Resour. Forum, 35, 165, 10.1111/j.1477-8947.2011.01386.x
Thomas, 1983
Hughes, 1987, 51
Knox-Hayes, 2012, Negotiating climate legislation: policy path dependence and coalition stabilization, Regul. Govern., 6, 545, 10.1111/j.1748-5991.2012.01138.x
Lund, 2006, Market penetration rates of new energy technologies, Energy Policy, 34, 3317, 10.1016/j.enpol.2005.07.002
Byrne, 1983, Energy Markets and Energy Myths: The Political Economy of Energy Transitions, 124
Allen Black, 2004, The cure for deadly patent practices: preventing technology suppression and patent shelving in the life sciences, Albany Law J. Sci. Technol., 14, 398
M. Saunder, 2002, Patent nonuse and the role of public interest as a deterrent to technology suppression, Harv. J. Law Technol., 15, 389
M. Saunder, 2004, Better, faster cheaper—later: what happens when technologies are suppressed, Mich. Telecommun. Technol. Law Rev., 11, 23
Sovacool, 2008, Placing a glove on the invisible hand: how intellectual property rights may impede innovation in energy research and development (R&D), Albany Law J. Sci. Technol., 18, 381
Stirling, 2014, Transforming power: social science and the politics of energy choices, Energy Res. Social Sci., 1, 83, 10.1016/j.erss.2014.02.001
Stirling, 2011, Pluralising progress: from integrative transitions to transformative diversity, Environ. Innov. Soc. Transit., 1, 82, 10.1016/j.eist.2011.03.005
Geels, 2002, Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study, Res. Policy, 31, 1257, 10.1016/S0048-7333(02)00062-8
Geels, 2004, From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems: insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory, Res. Policy, 33, 897, 10.1016/j.respol.2004.01.015
Schot, 2008, Strategic niche management and sustainable innovation journeys: theory, findings, research agenda, and policy, Technol. Anal. Strat. Manage., 20, 537, 10.1080/09537320802292651
Geels, 2012, A socio-technical analysis of low-carbon transitions: introducing the multi-level perspective into transport studies, J. Transp. Geogr., 24, 471, 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2012.01.021
van Bree, 2010, A multi-level perspective on the introduction of hydrogen and battery-electric vehicles, Technol. Forecast. Social Change, 77, 529, 10.1016/j.techfore.2009.12.005
Geels, 2007, Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways, Res. Policy, 36, 399, 10.1016/j.respol.2007.01.003
Smith, 2010, Innovation studies and sustainability transitions: the allure of the multi-level perspective and its challenges, Res. Policy, 39, 435, 10.1016/j.respol.2010.01.023
Kern, 2012, Using the multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions to assess innovation policy, Technol. Forecast. Social Change, 79, 298, 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.004
Hajer, 1995
Buttel, 2000, Ecological modernization as social theory, Geoforum, 31, 57, 10.1016/S0016-7185(99)00044-5
York, 2003, Key challenges to ecological modernization theory, Organiz. Enviorn., 16, 273, 10.1177/1086026603256299
York, 1992, A cultural model of household energy consumption, Energy, 7, 47
Lutzenhiser, 1993, Social and behavioral aspects of energy use, Ann. Rev. Energy Environ., 18, 247, 10.1146/annurev.eg.18.110193.001335
Shove, 2003
Walker, 2014, The dynamics of energy demand: change, rhythm and synchronicity, Energy Res. Social Sci., 1, 49, 10.1016/j.erss.2014.03.012
Wallenborn, 2014, Rethinking embodied knowledge and household consumption, Energy Res. Social Sci., 1, 56, 10.1016/j.erss.2014.03.009
Kern, 2014, Measuring and explaining policy paradigm change: the case of UK energy policy, Policy Politics, 42, 513, 10.1332/030557312X655765
Harvey, 2003
Bridge, 2008, Global production networks and the extractive sector: governing resource-based development, J. Econ. Geogr., 8, 389, 10.1093/jeg/lbn009
Robbins, 2012
Sovacool, 2015, The political economy of climate adaptation, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 616, 10.1038/nclimate2665
Meadowcroft, 2009, What about the politics? Sustainable development, transition management, and long term energy transitions, Policy Sci., 42, 323, 10.1007/s11077-009-9097-z
Smits, 2015
Stephen Lacey, Why the Energy Transition is Longer Than We Admit, Renewable Energy World, April 22, 2010
British Petroleum BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011
Smil, 2010, p150
Fouquet, 2010, The slow search for solutions: Lessons from historical energy transitions by sector and service, Energy Policy, 38, 6586, 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.06.029
Lund, 2006, Market penetration rates of new energy technologies, Energy Policy, 34, 3317, 10.1016/j.enpol.2005.07.002
Edmonds, Jae 2001, The Science of Climate Change. Testimony Before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, [online] http://www.pnl.gov/news/testimony/climate62801edmonds.stm, accessed July 2006.
Gorte, Julie Fox, Kaarsberg, Tina 2001, Electricity Restructuring, Innovation, and Efficiency, [online] http://www.nemw.org/ER_ERIE.htm, accessed July 2006.
Smil, 2010, 140
Fouqet, 2012, Past and prospective energy transitions: insights from history, Energy Policy, 50, 1, 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.08.014
Arnulf, 2012, Energy transitions research insights and cautionary tales, Energy Policy, 50, 8
Fouqet, 2012, Past and prospective energy transitions: insights from history, Energy Policy, 50, 1, 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.08.014
GEA, 2012
Myhrvold, 2012, Greenhouse gases, climate change and the transition from coal to low-carbon electricitynhouse gases, climate change and the transition from coal to low-carbon electricity, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 014019, 10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014019
Michael Grubb, Jean-Charles Hourcade, Karsten Neuhoff, The Three Domains structure of energy-climate transitions, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, in press, Corrected Proof, Available online 17 June 2015.
Allen, 2012, Backward into the future: the shift to coal and implications for the next energy transition, Energy Policy, 50, 17, 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.03.020
Rubio, 2012, Will small energy consumers be faster in transition? Evidence from the early shift from coal to oil in Latin America, Energy Policy, 50, 50, 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.03.054
Kathleen M. Araujo, Energy at the Frontier: Low Carbon Energy System Transitions and Innovation in Four Prime Mover Countries (MIT: PhD Dissertation, February, 2013).
Lund, 2007, Effectiveness of policy measures in transforming the energy system, Energy Policy, 35, 627, 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.01.008
Alan Ottossen and Staffan Stillesjo, Procurement and demonstration of lighting technologies for the efficient use of electricity (Stockholm: Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden, and NUTEK, 1996).
Lund, 2007, Effectiveness of policy measures in transforming the energy system, Energy Policy, 35, 627, 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.01.008
Smith, 1993, One hundred million improved cookstoves in China: how was it done?, World Dev., 21, 941, 10.1016/0305-750X(93)90053-C
Brown, 2011, China's National Improved Stove Program, 1983–1998, 292
Budya, 2011, Providing cleaner energy access in Indonesia through the megaproject of kerosene conversion to LPG, Energy Policy, 39, 7575, 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.02.061
Brown, 2011, Brazil's proalcohol program and promotion of flex-fuel vehicles, 260
National Academy of Engineering, 2013
Rebecca, 2011, Keepin' It Cool: How the Air Conditioner Made Modern America, The Atlantix, July, 14
U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S Census of Population and Housing 1960 (Washington, DC: Volume I).
U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S Census of Housing 1970 (Washington, DC: Volume I).
U.S. EIA, Air conditioning in nearly 100 million U.S. homes, August 19, 2011
Stan Cox, Climate risks heat up as world switches on to air conditioning, The Guardian, Tuesday 10 July 2012
Kuwait Ministry of Planning, Statistics and Census Sector, Statistical Review, 1950-1970 (Kuwait City, 1988).
Kuwait Ministry of Oil, Kuwait Oil: Facts and Figs. (Kuwait City: 2004).
Al-Marafie, 1989, Assessment of oil and natural gas resources in Kuwait, Energy, 14, 1, 10.1016/0360-5442(89)90118-7
Petroleum Media & Public Relations Department at Oil, Ministry, History of Petrol Stations in the State of Kuwait (Kuwait City, 2005).
State of Kuwait Ministry of Electricity and Water, History of Electrical Power in Kuwait (Kuwait City, 2011).
Al-Marafie, 1988, Assessment and prospects for energy resources in Kuwait, Energy, 13, 647, 10.1016/0360-5442(88)90095-3
Correljé, 2004, The transition from coal to gas: radical change of the Dutch gas system, 114
European Commission, Netherlands: Energy Mix Fact Sheet, Brussels, January 2010.
Grubler, 2010, The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: a case of negative learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38, 5174, 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.05.003
Sovacool, 2013, Energy policymaking in Denmark: implications for global energy security and sustainability, Energy Policy, 61, 829, 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.106
Office of the Premier, Ontario - First Place in North America to End Coal-Fired Power, November 21, 2013, available at http://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2013/11/ontario–-first-place-in-north-america-to-end-coal-fired-power.html.
Ministry of Energy (Toronto) Achieving Balance: Ontario's Long-Term Energy Plan 2013.
Sorrell, 2012, Shaping the global oil peak: a review of the evidence on field sizes, reserve growth, decline rates and depletion rates, Energy, 37, 709, 10.1016/j.energy.2011.10.010
Almeida, 2009, The peak of oil production—timings and market recognition, Energy Policy, 37, 1267, 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.11.016
Höök, 2010, Development of oil formation theories and their importance for peak oil, Mar. Petrol. Geol., 27, 1995, 10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2010.06.005
Vebruggen, 2010, Views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy, Energy Policy, 38, 5572, 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.05.002
Kerr, 2011, Peak Oil production may already be here, Science, 331, 1510, 10.1126/science.331.6024.1510
Smith, 2012, On the portents of peak oil (and other indicators of resource scarcity), Energy Policy, 44, 68, 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.01.014
Ruppert, 2002, The US Geological Survey's national coal resource assessment: the results, Int. J. Coal Geol., 50, 247, 10.1016/S0166-5162(02)00120-9
Tao, 2007, What is the limit of Chinese coal supplies—A STELLA model of Hubbert Peak, Energy Policy, 35, 3145, 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.11.011
Hook, 2009, Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook, Int. J. Coal Geol., 78, 201, 10.1016/j.coal.2009.03.002
Patzek, 2010, A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis, Energy, 35, 3109, 10.1016/j.energy.2010.02.009
Mohr, 2011, Projection of long-term paths for Australian coal production—comparisons of four models, Int. J. Coal Geol., 86, 329, 10.1016/j.coal.2011.03.006
Milici, 2013, Coal resources, reserves and peak coal production in the United States, Int. J. Coal Geol., 113, 109, 10.1016/j.coal.2012.10.002
Mudd, 2008, Sustainability of uranium mining and milling: toward quantifying resources and eco-efficiency, Environ. Sci. Technol., 42, 2624, 10.1021/es702249v
Dittmar, 2013, The end of cheap uranium, Sci. Total Environ., 461–462, 792, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.04.035
BP Statistical Review of World Energy, http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
Kerschner, 2013, Economic vulnerability to peak oil, Global Environ. Change, 23, 1424, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.015
Citi Research, Global Oil Demand Growth–The End Is Nigh, March 26, 2013, 20pp.
Hansen, 2013
Leaton, 2013, 4
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Oil and gas investment in the US has soared to $200b, Daily Telegraph, July 10, 2014.
Mc Glade, 2014, Un-burnable oil: an examination of oil resource utilisation in a decarbonised energy system, Energy Policy, 64, 102, 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.09.042
Andrew Revkin The Annotated Gore Energy Speech, New York Times July 17 2008
Fouqet, 2012, Past and prospective energy transitions: insights from history, Energy Policy, 50, 1, 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.08.014
Smith, K.R., A. Woodward, D. Campbell-Lendrum, D.D., Chadee, Y., Honda, Q., Liu, J.M., Olwoch, B. Revich, and R. Sauerborn, 2014. Human health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge
Balbus, 2014, A wedge-based approach to estimating health co-benefits of climate change mitigation activities in the United States, Clim. Change, 127, 199, 10.1007/s10584-014-1262-5
Rafaj, 2013, Co-benefits of post-2012 global climate mitigation policies, Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Global Change, 18, 801, 10.1007/s11027-012-9390-6
Kriegler, 2013, What Does the 2C Target Imply for a Global Climate Agreement in 2020? The Limits Study on Durban Platform Scenarios, Clim. Change Econ., 4, 1340008, 10.1142/S2010007813400083
M. Tavoni, E., Kriegler, K., Riahi, D. P. van Vuuren, N., Petermann, J., Jewell, S. H. Martinez, S., Rao, M. van Sluisveld, A., Bowen, A., Cherp, K., Calvin, G., Marangoni, D., McCollum, B. van der Zwaan, The LIMITS Consortium (2014) Limiting Global Warming to 2 (C. Policy findings from Durban Platform scenario analyses. LIMITS Synthesis Report, Available at www.feem-project.net/limits .
Taylor, 2014, Energy model, boundary object and societal lens: 35 years of the MARKAL model in the UK, Energy Res. Social Sci., 4, 32, 10.1016/j.erss.2014.08.007
Jefferson, 2014, Closing the gap between energy research and modelling, the social sciences, and modern realities, Energy Res. Social Sci., 4, 42, 10.1016/j.erss.2014.08.006
Josef Schubert, 2015, Does political and social feasibility matter in energy scenarios?, Energy Res. Soc. Sci., 7, 43, 10.1016/j.erss.2015.03.003
Sovacool, 2009, The importance of comprehensiveness in renewable electricity and energy efficiency policy, Energy Policy, 37, 1529, 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.12.016
United Nations Development Program Achieving Sustainable Energy for All in the Asia-Pacific (Bangkok: United Nations Development Program-Asia Pacific Research Center, August, 2013), 112pp.
Sawin, JL, E Martinot, et al. Renewables 2015: Global Status Report (Paris: REN21 Secretariat, July 2015), 172pp.
Casten, 1998
Laird, 2013, Against transitions? uncovering conflicts in changing energy systems, Sci. Cult., 22, 149, 10.1080/09505431.2013.786992
Genus, 2008, Rethinking the multi-level perspective of technological transitions, Res. Policy, 37, 1436, 10.1016/j.respol.2008.05.006
Pratt, 1981, The ascent of oil: the transition from coal to oil in early Twentieth-Century America, 9
Will Oremus, A History of Air Conditioning, July 15, 2013, Slate Magazine.
United Nations Development Program Achieving Sustainable Energy for All in the Asia-Pacific Bangkok: United Nations Development Program-Asia Pacific Research Center, August, 2013
Friedrichs, 2013
Edgerton, 2007
Martin, 2010, Energy transitions in historical perspective, 45
Kevin Bullis, “How Energy Consumption Has Changed Since 1776,” MIT Technology Review, July 3, 2013.
Sovacool, 2015