How cyclical and predictable are Central European temperate forest dynamics in terms of development phases?
Tóm tắt
Recently there have been vital discussions about the validity of the European patch‐mosaic conceptual model of forest dynamics – the traditional concept of a shifting patch‐mosaic of development stages and phases, also known as the forest cycle concept. Here we try to answer the fundamental questions of this debate: (1) how much do forest dynamics proceed along a predictable path (in a chronological sequence: growth—optimum—breakdown); or (2) vice versa, are the patches rather a result of disturbances and/or other stochastic growth and mortality patterns?
Five long‐term research plots in four different study sites of Central European natural temperate forests.
The long‐term evolution of forest development phases was analysed with a
In total, across all sites and observation periods, about 65% of all observed phase‐to‐phase transitions were realized through preferential pathways, about 28% of observed transitions went along pathways of random frequency and only about 7% of observed transitions were realized through uncommon development pathways. On the other hand, less than 40% of all observed transitions might be classified as cyclic (following the model cycle), and thus more than 60% of the transitions were acyclic (moving across or backward in the model cycle). The overall pattern of all observed transitions resembled a complex web rather than a simple repeating cycle.
Although in all sites we documented signs of the cyclic and predictable development anticipated by the forest cycle concept, the predominance and stochastic nature of multiple acyclic development pathways gave rise to reasonable doubts on the legitimacy and usability of the concept for descriptions of forest dynamics. On the other hand, the verification of the concept may contribute significantly to our understanding of the complexity of forest dynamics.
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