How bad will it be? Modelling the AIDS epidemic in Eastern Africa
Tóm tắt
The spread of HIV infection and the subsequent AIDS morbidity and mortality threatens to have a substantial impact on societies in subSaharan Africa. Infection levels are increasing rapidly in many regions, especially in urban areas. The consequences of high levels of infection are inescapable, although, due to the long incubation period, morbidity and mortality increases lag several years behind increases in infection levels. The impact of a serious AIDS epidemic will be felt by many sectors of the society. Mortality levels will substantially increase, especially among newborns and adults under age 50. This mortality will remove many productive members from the economy, while HIV-related illness will reduce the productivity of the infected population. Health care facilities will be severely strained to bear the increases in hospitalized populations. Those without access to the formal health care system will rely on family members for support and care.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Stanley, E.A., Seitz S.T., Way, P.O.,et al. (1991). The IWG model for the heterosexual spread of HIV and the demographic impact of the AIDS epidemic. InThe AIDS epidemic and its demographic consequences, United Nations Department of International Economic and Social Affairs and World Health Organization Global Programme on AIDS. New York: United Nations ST/ESA/SER.A/119.
Way, P.O. & Stanecki, K. (1991). The demographic impact of an AIDS epidemic on an African country: Application of the iwgAIDS model. Washington, D.C: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Center for International Research.
World Health Organization (1990). Current and future dimensions of the HIV/AIDS pandemic: A capsule summary. Global Programme on AIDS WHO/GPA/SFI/90.2 Rev. 1.