Hot hand and gambler's fallacy in teams: Evidence from investment experiments
Tài liệu tham khảo
Ackert, 2012
Asparouhova, 2009, Inference from streaks in random outcomes: experimental evidence on beliefs in regime shifting and the law of small numbers, Manage. Sci., 55, 1766, 10.1287/mnsc.1090.1059
Ayton, 2004, The hot hand fallacy and the gambler's fallacy: two faces of subjective randomness?, Mem. Cognit., 32, 1369, 10.3758/BF03206327
Barber, 2005, Out of sight, out of mind: the effects of expenses on mutual fund flows, J. Bus., 78, 2095, 10.1086/497042
Blinder, 2005, Are two heads better than one? monetary policy by committee, J. Money Credit Bank., 37, 789, 10.1353/mcb.2005.0048
Bone, 1999, Are groups more (or less) consistent than individuals?, J. Risk Uncertainty, 18, 63, 10.1023/A:1007764411446
Bär, 2011, Is a team different from the sum of its parts? Evidence from mutual fund managers, Rev. Finance, 15, 359, 10.1093/rof/rfq014
Brown, 1996, Of tournaments and temptations: an analysis of managerial incentives in the mutual fund industry, J. Finance, 51, 85, 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb05203.x
Carhart, 1997, On persistence in mutual fund performance, J. Finance, 52, 57, 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03808.x
Casari, 2012
Charness, 2007, Individual and group decision making under risk: an experimental study of Bayesian updating and violations of first-order stochastic dominance, J. Risk Uncertainty, 35, 129, 10.1007/s11166-007-9020-y
Charness, 2010, On the conjunction fallacy in probability judgement: new experimental evidence regarding Linda, Games Econ. Behav., 68, 551, 10.1016/j.geb.2009.09.003
Charness, 2012, Group decision-making: more rational and less behavioral?, J. Econ. Perspect., 26, 157, 10.1257/jep.26.3.157
Chen, 2007, Trading performance, disposition effect, overconfidence, representativeness bias, and experience of emerging market investors, J. Behav. Dec. Making, 20, 425, 10.1002/bdm.561
Cheung, 2011
Chevalier, 1997, Risk taking by mutual funds as a response to incentives, J. Polit. Econ., 105, 1167, 10.1086/516389
Croson, 2009, Gender differences in preferences, J. Econ. Literature, 47, 1, 10.1257/jel.47.2.448
Dohmen, 2009, Biased probability judgment: evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample, J. Econ. Behav. Organ., 72, 903, 10.1016/j.jebo.2009.07.014
Fahr, 2011, Who follows the crowd-groups or individuals?, J. Econ. Behav. Organ., 80, 200, 10.1016/j.jebo.2011.03.007
Feri, 2010, Efficiency gains from team-based coordination – large-scale experimental evidence, Am. Econ. Rev., 100, 1892, 10.1257/aer.100.4.1892
Fischbacher, 2007, z-tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments, Exp. Econ., 10, 171, 10.1007/s10683-006-9159-4
Gilovich, 1985, The hot hand in basketball: on the misperception of random sequences, Cognit. Psychol., 17, 295, 10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6
Goetzmann, 2008, Equity portfolio diversification, Rev. Finance, 12, 433, 10.1093/rof/rfn005
Greiner, 2004, Forschung und wissenschaftliches Rechnen 2003, An online recruitment system for economic experiments, 79
Huber, 2010, The hot hand belief and the gambler's fallacy in investment decisions under risk, Theory and decision, 68, 445, 10.1007/s11238-008-9106-2
Keck, 2014, Group decisions under ambiguity: convergence to neutrality, J. Econ. Behav. Organ., 103, 60, 10.1016/j.jebo.2014.03.026
Kroll, 1988, Experimental tests of the mean-variance model for portfolio selection, Organ. Behav. Hum. Dec. Process., 42, 388, 10.1016/0749-5978(88)90007-6
Kugler, 2012, Are groups more rational than individuals? a review of interactive decision making in groups, WIREs Cognit. Sci., 3, 471, 10.1002/wcs.1184
Malkiel, 2003, The efficient market hypothesis and its critics, J. Econ. Perspect., 17, 59, 10.1257/089533003321164958
Malkiel, 2005, Reflections on the efficient market hypothesis: 30 years later, Financial Rev., 40, 1, 10.1111/j.0732-8516.2005.00090.x
Masclet, 2009, Group and individual risk preferences: a lottery-choice experiment with self-employed and salaried workers, J. Econ. Behav. Organ., 70, 470, 10.1016/j.jebo.2007.11.002
Miller, 2015
Odean, 1998, Are investors reluctant to realize their losses?, J. Finance, 53, 1175
Powdthavee, 2015, Would you pay for transparently useless advice? A test of boundaries of beliefs in the folly of predictions, Rev. Econ. Stat., 97, 257, 10.1162/REST_a_00453
Rabin, 2002, Inference by believers in the law of small numbers, Q. J. Econ., 117, 775, 10.1162/003355302760193896
Matthew, 2010, The gambler's and the hot-hand fallacies: theory and applications, Rev. Econ. Stud., 77, 730, 10.1111/j.1467-937X.2009.00582.x
Rapoport, 1997, Randomization in individual choice behavior, Psychol. Rev., 104, 603, 10.1037/0033-295X.104.3.603
Rockenbach, 2007, Teams take the better risks, J. Econ. Behav. Organ., 63, 412, 10.1016/j.jebo.2005.04.023
Shapira, 2001, Patterns of behavior of professionally managed and independent investors, J. Bank. Finance, 25, 1573, 10.1016/S0378-4266(00)00139-4
Sheremeta, 2010, Can groups solve the problem of over-bidding in contests?, Soc. Choice Welfare, 35, 175, 10.1007/s00355-009-0434-0
Sirri, 1998, Costly search and mutual fund flows, J. Finance, 53, 1589, 10.1111/0022-1082.00066
Suetens, 2015, Predicting lotto numbers: a natural experiment on the gambler's fallacy and the hot hand fallacy, J. Eur. Econ. Assoc.
Suetens, 2012, The gambler's fallacy and gender, J.Econ. Behav. Organ., 83, 118, 10.1016/j.jebo.2011.06.017
Sutter, 2007, Are teams prone to myopic loss aversion? An experimental study on individual versus team investment behavior, Econ. Lett., 97, 128, 10.1016/j.econlet.2007.02.031
Sutter, 2009, Individual behavior and group membership: comment, Am. Econ. Rev., 99, 2247, 10.1257/aer.99.5.2247
Sutter, 2013, Strategic sophistication of individuals and teams in experimental normal-form games, Eur. Econ. Review, 64, 395, 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.06.003
Tversky, 1971, Belief in the law of small numbers, Psychol. Bull., 76, 105, 10.1037/h0031322
Weber, 1998, The disposition effect in securities trading: an experimental analysis, J. Econ. Behav, Organ., 33, 167, 10.1016/S0167-2681(97)00089-9