Hedging the exchange rate risk in international portfolio diversification

Managerial Finance - Tập 33 Số 9 - Trang 667-692 - 2007
RaimondMaurer1, ShohrehValiani1
1School of Business and Economics, Finance Department, Goethe‐University Frankfurt, Frankfurt, Germany

Tóm tắt

PurposeThis study seeks to examine the effectiveness of controlling the currency risk for international diversified mixed‐asset portfolios via two different hedge instruments, currency forwards and currency options. So far, currency forward has been the most common hedge tool, which will be compared here with currency options to control the foreign currency exposure risk. In this regard, several hedging strategies are evaluated and compared with one another.Design/methodology/approachOwing to the highly skewed return distributions of options, the application of the traditional mean‐variance framework for portfolio optimization is doubtful. To account for this problem, a mean lower partial moment model is employed. An in‐the‐sample as well as an out‐of‐the sample context is used. With in‐sample analyses, a block bootstrap test has been used to statistically test the existence of any significant performance improvement. Following that, to investigate the consistency of the results, the out‐of‐sample evaluation has been checked. In addition, currency trends are also taken into account to test the time‐trend dependence of currency movements and, therefore, the relative potential gains of risk‐controlling strategies.FindingsResults show that European put‐in‐the‐money options have the potential to substitute the optimally forward‐hedged portfolios. Considering the composition of the portfolio in using in‐the‐money options and forwards shows that using any of these hedge tools brings a much more diversified selection of stock and bond markets than no hedging strategy. The optimal option weights imply that a put‐in‐the‐money option strategy is more active than at‐the‐money or out‐of‐the‐money put options, which implies the dependency of put strategies on the level of strike price. A very interesting point is that, just by dedicating a very small part of the investment in options, the same amount of currency risk exposure can be hedged as when one uses the optimal forward hedging. In the out‐of‐sample study, the optimally forward‐hedged strategy generally presents a much better performance than any types of put policies.Practical implicationsThe research shows the risk and return implications of different currency hedging strategies. The finding could be of interest for asset managers of internationally diversified portfolios.Originality/valueConsidering the findings in the out‐of‐sample perspective, the optimally forward‐hedged minimum risk portfolio dominates all other strategies, while, in the depreciation of the local currency, this, together with the forward‐hedged tangency portfolio selection, would characterize the dominant portfolio strategies.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Abken, P.A. and Shrikhande, M.M. (1997), “The role of currency derivatives in internationally diversified portfolios”, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, 3rd quarter, pp. 34‐59.

Adler, M. and Prasad, B. (1992), “On universal currency hedges”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 27, pp. 19‐37.

Adler, M. and Simon, D. (1986), “Exchange rate surprises in international portfolios”, Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 12, pp. 44‐53.

Bawa, V.S. (1975), “Optimal rules for ordering uncertain prospects”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 2, pp. 95‐121.

Bawa, V.S. (1978), “Safety first, stochastic dominance and optimal portfolio choice”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 13, pp. 255‐71.

Biger, N. and Hull, J. (1983), “The valuation of currency option hedges”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 10, pp. 178‐201.

Black, F. (1989), “Universal hedging: optimizing currency risk and reward in international equity portfolios”, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 8, pp. 16‐22.

Black, F. (1990), “Equilibrium exchange rate hedging”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 45, pp. 899‐907.

Bookstaber, R. and Clarke, R. (1984), “Option portfolio strategies: measurement and evaluation”, Journal of Business, Vol. 57, pp. 469‐92.

Bookstaber, R. and Clarke, R. (1985), “Problems in evaluating the performance of portfolios with options”, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 51, January/February, pp. 48‐62.

Bugar, G. and Maurer, R. (2002), “International equity portfolios and currency hedging: the view point of German and Hungarian investors”, Astin Bulletin, Vol. 32 No.1, pp. 171‐97.

Conover, J.A. and Dubofsky, D.A. (1995), “Efficient selection of insured currency positions: protective puts versus fiduciary calls”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 30, pp. 295‐312.

Eaker, M.R. and Grant, D.M. (1990), “Currency hedging strategies for internationally diversified equity portfolios”, Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 31, pp. 30‐2.

Eun, C.S. and Resnick, B.G. (1988), “Exchange rate uncertainty, forward contracts and international portfolio selection”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 43, pp. 197‐215.

Eun, C.S. and Resnick, B.G. (1994), “International diversification of investment portfolios, US and Japanese perspective”, Management Science, Vol. 40, pp. 140‐60.

Fishburn, P.C. (1977), “Mean risk analysis with risk associated with below target returns”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 67 No. 2, pp. 116‐26.

Fishburn, P.C. (1984), “Foundation of risk measurement: risk as a probable loss”, Management Science, Vol. 30, pp. 116‐26.

Garman, G. and Kohlhagen, C. (1983), “Foreign currency option values”, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 2, pp. 231‐7.

Glen, J. and Jorion, P. (1993), “Currency hedging for international portfolios”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 48 No. 5, pp. 1865‐86.

Hader, J. and Russel, W.R. (1969), “Rules for ordering uncertain prospects”, American Economic Review, Vol. 59, pp. 25‐34.

Hanoch, G. and Levy, H. (1969), “The efficiency analysis of choices involving risk”, The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 36 No. 3, pp. 335‐46.

Harlow, W.V. (1991), “Asset allocation in downside risk framework”, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 28, pp. 28‐40.

Harlow, W.V. and Rao, R.K. (1989), “Asset pricing in a generalized mean lower partial moment framework, theory and evidence”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 25, pp. 285‐309.

Hsin, C.W., Kuo, J. and Lee, C.F. (1994), “A new measure to compare the hedging effectiveness of foreign currency futures versus options”, The Journal of Futures Markets, Vol. 14, pp. 685‐707.

Jarque, C.M. and Bera, A.K. (1987), “A test for normality of observations and regression residuals”, International Statistical Review, Vol. 55, pp. 163‐72.

Jorion, P. (1985), “Bayes‐Stein estimation for portfolio analysis”, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 21 No. 3, pp. 279‐92.

Jorion, P. (1986), “International portfolio diversification with estimation risk”, Journal of Business, Vol. 58, pp. 259‐78.

Jorion, P. (1994), “A mean‐variance analysis of currency overlays”, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 50, pp. 48‐56.

Larsen, G.A. and Resnick, B.G. (2000), “The optimal construction of internationally diversified equity portfolio hedged against exchange rate uncertainty”, European Financial Management, Vol. 6, pp. 479‐519.

Levy, H. (1992), “Stochastic dominance and expected utility: survey and analysis”, Management Science, Vol. 38, pp. 555‐93.

Levy, H. (1998), Stochastic Dominancy Investment Decision Making under Uncertainty, Kluwer, Boston, MA, Dordrecht, and London.

Levy, H. and Kroll, Y. (1978), “Order uncertain options with borrowing and lending”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 33, pp. 553‐73.

Levy, H. and Kroll, Y. (1979), “Efficiency analysis with borrowing and lending: criteria and their effectiveness”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 61 No. 1, pp. 125‐30.

Levy, H. and Lim, K.C. (1994), “Forward exchange bias, hedging and the gains from international diversification of investment portfolios”, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 13, pp. 159‐70.

Markowitz, H.M. (1952), “Portfolio selection”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 7, pp. 77‐91.

Porter, R.B. (1974), “Semivariance and stochastic dominance: a comparison”, American Economic Review, Vol. 64, pp. 200‐24.

Rothschild, M. and Stiglitz, J.E. (1970), “Incresing risk I: a definition”, Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 2, pp. 225‐43.

Roy, A.D. (1952), “Safety first and the holding of assets”, Econometrica, Vol. 20, pp. 431‐9.

Sarin, R.K. and Weber, M. (1993), “Risk‐value models”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 72, pp. 135‐49.

Sortino, F.A. and Price. L.N. (1994), “Performance measurement in a downside risk framework”, The Journal of Investing, Vol. 3, pp. 59‐64.

Sortino, F.A. and van der Meer, R. (1991), “Downside risk”, Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 17, pp. 27‐31.

Weber, M. (1990), Risikoentscheidungskalküle in der Finanzierungstheorie, Poeschel, Stuttgart.

Whitemore, G.A. (1970), “Third degree stochastic dominance”, American Economic Review, Vol. 60, pp. 457‐9.

Levy, H., Markowitz, H.M. and Yoram, K. (1984), “Mean‐variance versus direct utility maximization”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 39 No. 1, pp. 47‐61.