Khí thải nhà kính, tiêu thụ năng lượng không tái tạo và sản lượng ở Nam Mỹ: vai trò của cấu trúc sản xuất

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 27 - Trang 14477-14491 - 2020
Qiushi Deng1, Rafael Alvarado2, Elisa Toledo3, Leidy Caraguay2
1School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China
2Carrera de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Loja, Loja, Ecuador
3Departamento de Economía, Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, Loja, Ecuador

Tóm tắt

Hầu hết các quốc gia ở Nam Mỹ phụ thuộc rất nhiều vào khai thác mỏ và nông nghiệp, điều này phát triển thông qua việc phá hủy rừng. Sự mở rộng biên giới nông nghiệp rõ ràng hơn ở các quốc gia gần Amazon. Ngược lại, sự gia tăng ưu thế đô thị và thu nhập thực tế trên đầu người đã dẫn đến việc sử dụng năng lượng không tái tạo gia tăng trong vài thập kỷ qua. Sự quan tâm trong việc định lượng khí thải nhà kính đã gia tăng, hướng tới việc tìm kiếm các cơ chế nhằm giảm thiểu tác động không thể đảo ngược của biến đổi khí hậu. Trong bối cảnh này, mục tiêu của nghiên cứu này là xem xét mối liên hệ nguyên nhân giữa tiêu thụ năng lượng không tái tạo và GDP thực tế trên đầu người với khí thải nhà kính ở mười quốc gia Nam Mỹ trong giai đoạn 1971–2014. Ngoài ra, chúng tôi phân nhóm các quốc gia theo cấu trúc sản xuất của họ và kết hợp các thay đổi cấu trúc của từng quốc gia trong các ước lượng kinh tế lượng, cho phép cải thiện đáng kể việc hiểu biết các nguồn phát thải khí nhà kính. Chúng tôi sử dụng kỹ thuật đồng liên kết và nguyên nhân cho dữ liệu chuỗi thời gian, và chúng tôi phát hiện ra rằng có mối quan hệ cân bằng ngắn hạn và dài hạn giữa ba biến trong tất cả các quốc gia. Kiểm tra nguyên nhân cho thấy rằng tại Bolivia, Peru và Uruguay, có mối quan hệ nguyên nhân từ tiêu thụ năng lượng không tái tạo đến khí thải nhà kính. Tương tự, tại Venezuela và các quốc gia nông nghiệp, GDP dẫn đến khí thải nhà kính. Một hàm ý về chính sách công từ nghiên cứu này là hầu hết các quốc gia Nam Mỹ có thể thúc đẩy một sự thay đổi trong ma trận năng lượng để góp phần giảm thiểu khí thải nhà kính mà không làm hạn chế tăng trưởng kinh tế.

Từ khóa

#khí thải nhà kính #năng lượng không tái tạo #GDP #Nam Mỹ #cấu trúc sản xuất

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