Greedy or needy? Land use and climate impacts of food in 2050 under different livestock futures

Alexander, 2017, Could consumption of insects, cultured meat or imitation meat reduce global agricultural land use?, Global Food Secur., 10.1016/j.gfs.2017.04.001

Alexandratos, 2012

Andreyeva, 2010, The impact of food prices on consumption: a systematic review of research on the price elasticity of demand for food, Am. J. Public Health, 100, 216, 10.2105/AJPH.2008.151415

Bai, 2010, Food away from home in Beijing: effects of wealth, time and free meals, China Econ. Rev., 21, 432, 10.1016/j.chieco.2010.04.003

Bailey, 2014, Livestock ?climate change’s forgotten sector. Global public opinion on meat and dairy consumption

Bajželj, 2014, Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 924, 10.1038/nclimate2353

Barkema, 2015, Invited review: changes in the dairy industry affecting dairy cattle health and welfare, J. Dairy Sci., 98, 7426, 10.3168/jds.2015-9377

Beede, 2013, Animal agriculture: how can it be sustainable in the future?, 284

Bennetzen, 2016, Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970-2050, Global Change Biol., 22, 763, 10.1111/gcb.13120

Bergman, 2014, Comparison of selected animal observations and management practices used to assess welfare of calves and adult dairy cows on organic and conventional dairy farms, J. Dairy Sci., 97, 4269, 10.3168/jds.2013-7766

Chang, 2016, Combining livestock production information in a process-based vegetation model to reconstruct the history of grassland management, Biogeosciences, 13, 3757, 10.5194/bg-13-3757-2016

Davis, 2016, Meeting future food demand with current agricultural resources, Global Environ. Change, 39, 125, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.004

Edjabou, 2013, The effect of using consumption taxes on foods to promote climate friendly diets –The case of Denmark, Food Policy, 39, 84, 10.1016/j.foodpol.2012.12.004

Erb, 2016, Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation, Nat. Commun., 7, 11382, 10.1038/ncomms11382

Eyles, 2012, Food pricing strategies, population diets, and non-Communicable disease: a systematic review of simulation studies, PLoS Med., 9, e1001353, 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001353

FAO, 2011

FAO, 2014

FAO, 2015

FAO, 2016

Fetzel, 2017, Seasonality constraints to livestock grazing intensity, Global Change Biol., 23, 1636, 10.1111/gcb.13591

Fischer, 2016, Plates, pyramids, planet. Developments in national healthy and sustainable dietary guidelines: a state of play assessment

Foley, 2005, Global consequences of land use, Science, 309, 570, 10.1126/science.1111772

Foley, 2011, Solutions for a cultivated planet, Nature, 478, 337, 10.1038/nature10452

Francis, 2003, Agroecology: the ecology of food systems, J. Sustainable Agric., 22, 99, 10.1300/J064v22n03_10

Garnett, 2013, Sustainable intensification in agriculture: premises and policies, Science, 341, 33, 10.1126/science.1234485

Garnett, 2015, Policies and actions to shift eating patterns: what works? review of the evidence of the effectiveness of interventions aimed at shifting dets in more sustainable and healthy directions

Garnett, 2015, Lean, green, mean, obscene…? What is efficiency? And is it sustainable?

Garnett, 2009, Livestock-related greenhouse gas emissions: impacts and options for policy makers, Environ. Sci. Policy, 12, 491, 10.1016/j.envsci.2009.01.006

Garnett, 2014, hree perspectives on sustainable food security: efficiency, demand restraint, food system transformation. What role for life cycle assessment?, J. Cleaner Prod., 73, 10, 10.1016/j.jclepro.2013.07.045

Garnett, 2015, Gut feelings and possible tomorrows: (where) does animal farming fit?

Gerber, 2013

Godfray, 2014, Food security and sustainable intensification, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci., 369, 20120273, 10.1098/rstb.2012.0273

Godfray, 2010, Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people, Science, 327, 812, 10.1126/science.1185383

Graça, 2014, Moral disengagement in harmful but cherished food practices? an exploration into the case of meat, J. Agric. Environ. Ethics, 27, 749, 10.1007/s10806-014-9488-9

Graça, 2015, Meat, beyond the plate. Data-driven hypotheses for understanding consumer willingness to adopt a more plant-based diet, Appetite, 90, 80, 10.1016/j.appet.2015.02.037

Grunert, 2012, Socio-demographic and attitudinal determinants of nutrition knowledge of food shoppers in six European countries, Food Qual. Preference, 26, 166, 10.1016/j.foodqual.2012.04.007

Grunert, 2014, Sustainability labels on food products: consumer motivation, understanding and use, Food Policy, 44, 177, 10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.12.001

Havlík, 2014, Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 111, 3709, 10.1073/pnas.1308044111

Hedenus, 2014, The importance of reduced meat and dairy consumption for meeting stringent climate change targets, Clim. Change, 124, 79, 10.1007/s10584-014-1104-5

Hertel, 2016, Attaining food and environmental security in an era of globalization, Global Environ. Change, 41, 195, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.006

Hoolohan, 2013, Mitigating the greenhouse gas emissions embodied in food through realistic consumer choices, Energy Policy, 63, 1065, 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.09.046

IMECHE, 2012

IPCC, 2006, IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories

Kearney, 2010, Food consumption trends and drivers, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci., 365, 2793, 10.1098/rstb.2010.0149

Kummu, 2012, Lost food, wasted resources: global food supply chain losses and their impacts on freshwater cropland, and fertiliser use, Sci. Total Environ., 438, 477, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.08.092

Lamb, 2016, The potential for land sparing to offset greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 488, 10.1038/nclimate2910

Lambin, 2011, Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 108, 3465, 10.1073/pnas.1100480108

Licker, 2010, Mind the gap: how do climate and agricultural management explain the ‘yield gap’ of croplands around the world?, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 19, 769, 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00563.x

Lwiwski, 2015, Stocking rates and vegetation structure, heterogeneity, and community in a northern mixed-Grass prairie, Rangeland Ecol. Manage., 68, 322, 10.1016/j.rama.2015.05.002

Ma, 2006, Getting rich and eating out: consumption of food away from home in urban China, Canadian J. Agri. Econ. Rev. Canadienne D'agroeconomie, 54, 101, 10.1111/j.1744-7976.2006.00040.x

Marshall, 2011, Food animals and antimicrobials: impacts on human health, Clin. Microbiol. Rev., 24, 718, 10.1128/CMR.00002-11

Martinez-Sanchez, 2016, Life-Cycle costing of food waste management in Denmark: importance of indirect effects, Environ. Sci. Technol., 50, 4513, 10.1021/acs.est.5b03536

Mauser, 2015, Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion, Nat. Commun., 6, 8946, 10.1038/ncomms9946

McDonald, 2011, 156

Millet, 2005, Welfare, performance and meat quality of fattening pigs in alternative housing and management systems: a review, J. Sci. Food Agric., 85, 709, 10.1002/jsfa.2033

Millward, 2010, Plenary Lecture 3 Food and the planet: nutritional dilemmas of greenhouse gas emission reductions through reduced intakes of meat and dairy foods, Proc. Nutr. Soc., 69, 103, 10.1017/S0029665109991868

Mintel, 2014

NCCD, 2015

NRC, 2009

Neumann, 2010, The yield gap of global grain production: a spatial analysis, Agric. Syst., 103, 316, 10.1016/j.agsy.2010.02.004

Newton, 2014, Perspectives on the utilization of aquaculture coproduct in europe and asia: prospects for value addition and improved resource efficiency, Crit. Rev. Food Sci. Nutr., 54, 495, 10.1080/10408398.2011.588349

Niebylski, 2015, Healthy food subsidies and unhealthy food taxation: a systematic review of the evidence, Nutrition, 31, 787, 10.1016/j.nut.2014.12.010

OECD, 2016

Ouyang, 2013, Spatial and temporal trend of Chinese manure nutrient pollution and assimilation capacity of cropland and grassland, Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res., 20, 5036, 10.1007/s11356-013-1481-8

Phalan, 2014, Closing yield gaps: perils and possibilities for biodiversity conservation, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci., 369, 20120285, 10.1098/rstb.2012.0285

Plachter, 2010, Large-scale livestock grazing. a management tool for nature conservation, 3

Popp, 2010, Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non-CO2 greenhouse gases from agricultural production, Global Environ. Change, 20, 451, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.02.001

Post, 2012, Cultured meat from stem cells: challenges and prospects, Meat Sci., 92, 297, 10.1016/j.meatsci.2012.04.008

Pradhan, 2015, Closing yield gaps: how sustainable can we Be?, PLoS One, 10, e0129487, 10.1371/journal.pone.0129487

Queiroz, 2014, Farmland abandonment: threat or opportunity for biodiversity conservation? A global review, Front. Ecol. Environ., 12, 288, 10.1890/120348

Röös, 2013, Can carbon footprint serve as an indicator of the environmental impact of meat production?, Ecol. Indic., 24, 573, 10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.08.004

Röös, 2015, Limiting livestock production to pasture and by-products in a search for sustainable diets, Food Policy, 58, 1, 10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.10.008

Röös, 2017, Protein futures beyond sustainable intensification: potential land use and climate impacts of different consumption scenarios in Western Europe, Reg. Environ. Change, 17, 367, 10.1007/s10113-016-1013-4

Ray, 2013, Increasing global crop harvest frequency: recent trends and future directions, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 044041, 10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044041

Rivers Cole, 2013, Does global meat consumption follow an environmental Kuznets curve?, Sustainability Sci. Practi. Policy, 9, 26, 10.1080/15487733.2013.11908112

Roberts, 2015

Rogelj, 2011, Emission pathways consistent with a 2 degree C global temperature limit, Nat. Clim. Change, 1, 413, 10.1038/nclimate1258

Rousseau, 2015

Ruby, 2011, Meat, morals, and masculinity, Appetite, 56, 447, 10.1016/j.appet.2011.01.018

Säll, 2015, Effects of an environmental tax on meat and dairy consumption in Sweden, Food Policy, 55, 41, 10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.05.008

Salemdeeb, 2017, A holistic approach to the environmental evaluation of food waste prevention, Waste Manage., 59, 442, 10.1016/j.wasman.2016.09.042

Schösler, 2015, Meat and masculinity among young Chinese, Turkish and Dutch adults in the Netherlands, Appetite, 89, 152, 10.1016/j.appet.2015.02.013

Schader, 2015, Impacts of feeding less food-competing feedstuffs to livestock on global food system sustainability, J. R. Soc. Interface, 12, 10.1098/rsif.2015.0891

Schmitz, 2012, Trading more food: implications for land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and the food system, Global Environ. Change, 22, 189, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.013

Smetana, 2015, Meat alternatives: life cycle assessment of most known meat substitutes, Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 20, 1254, 10.1007/s11367-015-0931-6

Smith, 2008, Greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B, 363, 789, 10.1098/rstb.2007.2184

Smith, 2008, Greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B : Biol. Sci., 363, 789, 10.1098/rstb.2007.2184

Smith, 2013, How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?, Global Change Biol., 19, 2285, 10.1111/gcb.12160

Smith, 2014, Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)

Smith, 2012, Soils and climate change, Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain., 4, 539, 10.1016/j.cosust.2012.06.005

Smith, 2013, Delivering food security without increasing pressure on land, Global Food Secur., 2, 18, 10.1016/j.gfs.2012.11.008

Stehfest, 2009, Climate benefits of changing diet, Clim. Change, 95, 83, 10.1007/s10584-008-9534-6

The Royal Society, 2009

The Royal Society, 2012

Thornton, 2010, Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B, 365, 2853, 10.1098/rstb.2010.0134

Thow, 2010, The effect of fiscal policy on diet, obesity and chronic disease: a systematic review, Bull. World Health Organ., 88, 609, 10.2471/BLT.09.070987

Tilman, 2014, Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health, Nature, 515, 518, 10.1038/nature13959

Tittonell, 2013, When yield gaps are poverty traps: the paradigm of ecological intensification in African smallholder agriculture, Field Crops Res., 143, 76, 10.1016/j.fcr.2012.10.007

Tuomisto, 2011, Environmental impacts of cultured meat production, Environ. Sci. Technol., 45, 6117, 10.1021/es200130u

UN, 2012

UN, 2015

Velarde, 2015, Animal welfare towards sustainability in pork meat production, Meat Sci., 109, 13, 10.1016/j.meatsci.2015.05.010

WRAP, 2012

WRAP, 2014

WRAP, 2017

Westhoek, 2014, Food choices, health and environment: effects of cutting Europe's meat and dairy intake, Global Environ. Change, 26, 196, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.02.004

White, 2000

Wirsenius, 2010, How much land is needed for global food production under scenarios of dietary changes and livestock productivity increases in 2030?, Agric. Syst., 103, 621, 10.1016/j.agsy.2010.07.005

Wirsenius, 2011, Greenhouse gas taxes on animal food products: rationale, tax scheme and climate mitigation effects, Clim. Change, 108, 159, 10.1007/s10584-010-9971-x

de Boer, 2014, Meatless days or less but better? Exploring strategies to adapt Western meat consumption to health and sustainability challenges, Appetite, 76, 120, 10.1016/j.appet.2014.02.002

de Oliveira Silva, 2016, Increasing beef production could lower greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil if decoupled from deforestation, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 493, 10.1038/nclimate2916

van Zanten, 2016, Opinion paper: the role of livestock in a sustainable diet: a land-use perspective, Animal, 10, 547, 10.1017/S1751731115002694