Global sea level linked to global temperature

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America - Tập 106 Số 51 - Trang 21527-21532 - 2009
Martin Vermeer1, Stefan Rahmstorf2
1Department of Surveying, Helsinki University of Technology, P.O. Box 1200, FI-02150, Espoo, Finland; and
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany

Tóm tắt

We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880–2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990–2100.

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Thông tin xuất bản

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Tập 106 Số 51

21527-21532

Thông tin tác giả