Global lockdown: An effective safeguard in responding to the threat of COVID‐19

Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice - Tập 26 Số 6 - Trang 1592-1598 - 2020
Bhupendra Verma1, Mamta Verma2, Vikash Verma3, Rifah B. Abdullah4, Dilip C. Nath5, Hafiz T. A. Khan6, Anita Verma7, Ramesh Vishwakarma8,9,10, Vivek Verma7
1Bimal Chandra College of Law, West Bengal, India
2Department of Law, Kazi Nazrul University, West Bengal, India
3Department of Economics, Sidho-Kanho-Birsha University, West Bengal, India
4School of Psychology, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
5Assam University, Silchar, Assam, India
6College of Nursing, Midwifery and Healthcare, University of West London, Brentford, UK
7Departments of Neurology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, India
8Department of Biostatistics, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
9King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
10Ministry of the National Guard - Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Tóm tắt

AbstractRationale, aims, and objectivesThe recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID‐19) has infected around 1 560 000 individuals till 10 April 2020, which has resulted in 95 000 deaths globally. While no vaccine or anti‐viral drugs for COVID‐19 are available, lockdown acts as a protective public health measures to reduce human interaction and lower transmission. The study aims to explore the impact of delayed planning or lack of planning for the lockdown and inadequate implementation of the lockdown, on the transmission rate of COVID‐19.MethodEpidemiological data on the incidence and mortality of COVID‐19 cases as reported by public health authorities were accessed from six countries based on total number of infected cases, namely, United States and Italy (more than 100 000 cases); United Kingdom, and France (50 000‐100 000 cases), and India and Russia (6000‐10 000 cases). The Bayesian inferential technique was used to observe the changes (three points) in pattern of number of cases on different duration of exposure (in days) in these selected countries 1 month after World Health Organization (WHO) declaration about COVID‐19 as a global pandemic.ResultsOn comparing the pattern of transmission rates observed in these six countries at posterior estimated change points, it is found that partial implementation of lockdown (in the United States), delayed planning in lockdown (Russia, United Kingdom, and France), and inadequate implementation of the lockdown (in India and Italy) were responsible to the spread of infections.ConclusionsIn order to control the spreading of COVID‐19, like other national and international laws, lockdown must be implemented and enforced. It is suggested that on‐time or adequate implementation of lockdown is a step towards social distancing and to control the spread of this pandemic.

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Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice

Tập 26 Số 6

1592-1598

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