Global lockdown: An effective safeguard in responding to the threat of COVID‐19

Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice - Tập 26 Số 6 - Trang 1592-1598 - 2020
Bhupendra Verma1, Mamta Verma2, Vikash Verma3, Rifah B. Abdullah4, Dilip C. Nath5, Hafiz T. A. Khan6, Anita Verma7, Ramesh Vishwakarma8,9,10, Vivek Verma7
1Bimal Chandra College of Law, West Bengal, India
2Department of Law, Kazi Nazrul University, West Bengal, India
3Department of Economics, Sidho-Kanho-Birsha University, West Bengal, India
4School of Psychology, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
5Assam University, Silchar, Assam, India
6College of Nursing, Midwifery and Healthcare, University of West London, Brentford, UK
7Departments of Neurology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, India
8Department of Biostatistics, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
9King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
10Ministry of the National Guard - Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Tóm tắt

AbstractRationale, aims, and objectives

The recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID‐19) has infected around 1 560 000 individuals till 10 April 2020, which has resulted in 95 000 deaths globally. While no vaccine or anti‐viral drugs for COVID‐19 are available, lockdown acts as a protective public health measures to reduce human interaction and lower transmission. The study aims to explore the impact of delayed planning or lack of planning for the lockdown and inadequate implementation of the lockdown, on the transmission rate of COVID‐19.

Method

Epidemiological data on the incidence and mortality of COVID‐19 cases as reported by public health authorities were accessed from six countries based on total number of infected cases, namely, United States and Italy (more than 100 000 cases); United Kingdom, and France (50 000‐100 000 cases), and India and Russia (6000‐10 000 cases). The Bayesian inferential technique was used to observe the changes (three points) in pattern of number of cases on different duration of exposure (in days) in these selected countries 1 month after World Health Organization (WHO) declaration about COVID‐19 as a global pandemic.

Results

On comparing the pattern of transmission rates observed in these six countries at posterior estimated change points, it is found that partial implementation of lockdown (in the United States), delayed planning in lockdown (Russia, United Kingdom, and France), and inadequate implementation of the lockdown (in India and Italy) were responsible to the spread of infections.

Conclusions

In order to control the spreading of COVID‐19, like other national and international laws, lockdown must be implemented and enforced. It is suggested that on‐time or adequate implementation of lockdown is a step towards social distancing and to control the spread of this pandemic.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.1093/jtm/taaa021

10.1093/ije/dyaa033

WHO. Q&A on coronaviruses (COVID‐19) [Internet]. World Health Organization.https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses. Accessed April 12 2020

CDC. How COVID‐19 Spreads [Internet]. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html#How-COVID-19-Spreads. Accessed April 12 2020

CDC.1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus) [Internet]. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html. Accessed April 13 2020

FergusonNM LaydonD Nedjati‐GilaniG et al.Impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID‐19 mortality and healthcare demand.2020;10:77482.

10.1017/S0963926804002135

Fidler DP, 1996, Globalization, international law, and emerging infectious diseases, Emerg Infect Dis, 2, 77, 10.3201/eid0202.960201

Stoeva P, 2020, International norm development and change: can international law play a meaningful role in curbing the lifestyle disease pandemic?, BMC Int Health Hum Rights, 20, 1, 10.1186/s12914-020-00239-7

10.1001/jama.2009.849

Rakesh PS, 2016, The epidemic diseases act of 1897: public health relevance in the current scenario, Indian J Med Ethics, 1, 156

Aginam O, 2002, International law and communicable diseases, Bull World Health Organ, 80, 946

Magnusson R, 2017, Advancing the right to health: the vital role of law

10.1056/NEJMp2004211

Gostin LO, 2007, Pandemic influenza: ethics, law, and the public's health, Adm Law Rev, 59, 121

10.1056/NEJM200003303421303

Gentile L, 2020, Opinion, knowledge and attitude of public health residents towards the new mandatory vaccination law in Italy, J Public Health, 1

10.1001/jama.2020.1097

10.1001/jama.2020.2025

10.1371/journal.pone.0020724

Semenza JC, 2012, Economic crisis and infectious disease control: a public health predicament, Eur J Public Health, 22, 5, 10.1093/eurpub/ckr212

Press Information Bureau Government of India. Central teams being sent to States to support in COVID‐19 Management [Internet].https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1616985https://pib.gov.in\press. Accessed April 222020.

FernandesN.Economic effects of coronavirus outbreak (COVID‐19) on the world economy.2020. Available at SSRN 3557504.

10.1016/j.onehlt.2018.100080

10.1007/s11222-006-8450-8

10.5705/ss.2011.025a

10.1029/2001WR000311

The Hindu. Coronavirus. Nearly 4 300 cases were linked to Tablighi Jamaat event says Health Ministry [Internet].https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/coronavirus-nearly-4300-cases-were-linked-to-tablighi-jamaat-event-says-health-ministry/article31376202.ece. Accessed April 25 2020

The Economic Times. Migrant workers crowd Anand Vihar bus terminus to return to their villages.https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/migrant-workers-crowd-anand-vihar-bus-terminus-to-return-to-their-villages/articleshow/74863940.cms. Accessed April 25 2020

The Guardian. Leaked coronavirus plan to quarantine 16m sparks chaos in Italy.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/08/leaked-coronavirus-plan-to-quarantine-16m-sparks-chaos-in-italy. Accessed April 25 2020.

10.1371/journal.pone.0233074