Các con đường phát thải toàn cầu dưới các kịch bản kinh tế xã hội khác nhau để sử dụng trong CMIP6: một tập dữ liệu về các quỹ đạo phát thải đã được hài hòa đến cuối thế kỷ
Tóm tắt
Tóm tắt. Chúng tôi trình bày một bộ chín kịch bản về các quỹ đạo phát thải trong tương lai từ các nguồn nhân tạo, một sản phẩm chính của thí nghiệm ScenarioMIP trong CMIP6. Kết quả của các mô hình đánh giá tích hợp cho 14 loài phát thải khác nhau và 13 lĩnh vực phát thải được cung cấp cho mỗi kịch bản với những chuyển tiếp nhất quán từ dữ liệu lịch sử được sử dụng trong CMIP6 sang các quỹ đạo tương lai thông qua hài hóa tự động trước khi được thu nhỏ để cung cấp chi tiết không gian phát thải cao hơn. Chúng tôi nhận thấy rằng các kịch bản trải dài trên một khoảng giá trị sức ép bức xạ vào cuối thế kỷ, do đó khiến tập hợp các kịch bản này trở nên lý tưởng để khám phá nhiều con đường nóng lên khác nhau. Tập hợp các kịch bản được giới hạn ở đầu thấp bởi một kịch bản 1.9 W m−2, lý tưởng cho việc phân tích một thế giới với nhiệt độ vào cuối thế kỷ thấp hơn 2 ∘C, và ở đầu cao là một kịch bản 8.5 W m−2, dẫn đến sự gia tăng nhiệt độ gần 5 ∘C so với mức trước công nghiệp. Giữa hai cực này, các kịch bản được cung cấp để những khác biệt giữa các kết quả sức ép mang lại kết quả nhiệt độ khu vực có ý nghĩa thống kê nhằm tối đa hóa tính hữu dụng của chúng cho các thí nghiệm tiếp theo trong CMIP6. Một loạt các sản phẩm dữ liệu kịch bản được cung cấp cho cộng đồng khoa học CMIP6 bao gồm bộ dữ liệu phát thải toàn cầu, khu vực và lưới.
Từ khóa
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