Thay đổi toàn cầu và chu trình thủy ngân: Thách thức trong việc thực hiện một hiệp ước thủy ngân toàn cầu
Tóm tắt
Công ước Minamata nhằm bảo vệ sức khỏe con người và môi trường trước các nguồn phát thải và xả thải thủy ngân do con người gây ra. Nghiên cứu hiện tại xem xét các điều khoản của Công ước Minamata để đánh giá ảnh hưởng của chúng đối với chu trình sinh địa hóa toàn cầu của thủy ngân (Hg). Mặc dù phạm vi của công ước bao trùm tất cả các danh mục phát thải khí quyển chính, nhưng mức độ mà nó sẽ ảnh hưởng đến các quỹ đạo phát thải trong tương lai vẫn chưa rõ ràng. Phân tích mô hình hộp cho thấy rằng chu trình sinh địa hóa toàn cầu trong tương lai dưới các điều kiện công nghệ dự kiến sẽ chủ yếu dẫn đến việc tránh được sự gia tăng, và sự khác biệt ước tính trong nồng độ khí quyển do các chính sách tạo ra sẽ vào khoảng 1% đến 2% mỗi năm. Kinh nghiệm hiện tại cho thấy rằng tri thức khoa học không đủ để quy kết nguyên nhân cho những thay đổi có quy mô như vậy. Một số cải tiến để nâng cao khả năng đo lường hiệu quả của Công ước Minamata được đề xuất, bao gồm cả việc đo lường và mô hình hóa. Environ Toxicol Chem 2014;33:1202–1210. © 2013 SETAC
Từ khóa
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