Global Warming and U.S. Crime Rates

Environment and Behavior - Tập 35 Số 6 - Trang 802-825 - 2003
James Rotton1, Ellen G. Cohn1
1Florida International University

Tóm tắt

Two archival analyses were performed to examine the association between annual temperatures and U.S. crime rates. The first was based on area-averaged temperatures in the United States as a whole for the years 1950 through 1999. Box-Jenkins time-series analyses indicated that annual temperatures were associated with assault but not murder rates in analyses that controlled for yearly population, ethnicity, and three economic variables. The second analysis was based on state-centered crime rates from 1960 through 1998 and included the same controls. Contrary to the general aggression model, cross-sectional time-series analyses indicated that annual temperatures were associated with rates for assault, rape, robbery, burglary, and larceny, but not murder or motor vehicle theft. The results are consistent with a routine activity theory interpretation of everyday and criminal behavior.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Aiken, L. S. & West, S. G. (1991). Multiple regression: Testing and interpreting interactions. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.

Anderson, C. A., Anderson, K. B., Dorr, N., DeNeve, K. M. & Flanagan, M. (2000). Temperature and aggression. In M. P. Zanna (Ed.), Advances in experimental social psychology, Vol. 32 (pp. 33-133). New York: Academic Press.

10.1146/annurev.psych.53.100901.135231

10.1037/0022-3514.73.6.1213

10.1037/0022-3514.33.3.245

10.1093/oxfordjournals.bjc.a014113

Beck, N. (1985).Estimating dynamic models is not merely a matter of technique. Political Methodology, 11, 71-90.

Bell, P. A., Greene, T. E., Baum, A. & Fisher, J. D. (2000). Environmental psychology (4th ed.). New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston.

10.1037/0033-2909.106.1.59

Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M. & Reinsel, G. C. (1994). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control (3rd ed.). New York: Prentice Hall.

10.1037/0022-3514.72.6.1440

10.1111/j.1745-9125.1988.tb00842.x

Clarke, R. V. & Harris, P. M. (1992). Auto theft and its prevention. In M. Tonry (Ed.), Crime and justice: A review of research, Vol. 16 (pp. 1-54). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

10.1037/0033-2909.112.1.155

10.1177/002242788001700202

10.1177/002242788101800107

10.2307/2094589

10.1086/227204

10.1093/oxfordjournals.bjc.a047980

10.1016/S0272-4944(05)80216-6

10.1037/0022-3514.72.6.1322

10.1006/jevp.1999.0157

Corzine, J., Huff-Corzine, L. & White, H. P. (1999). Cultural and subcultural theories of homicide. In M. D. Smith & M. A. Zahn (Eds.), Homicide: A sourcebook of social research (pp. 42-57). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Dexter, E. G. (1899). Conduct and the weather: An inductive study of the mental effects of definite meteorological conditions. Psychological Review, 2(6), 1-103.

Dielman, T. E. (1989). Pooledcross-sectionalandtime series dataanalysis. New York: Dekker.

Engel, M. (2002). It’s official, global warming does exist, says Bush. Retrieved June 4, 2002, from http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/stoy/0,3604,727167,00.html

Feldman, H. S. & Jarmon, R. G. (1979). Factors influencing criminal behavior in Newark: A local study in forensic psychiatry. Journal of Forensic Sciences, 24, 234-239.

Felson, M. (2002). Crime and everyday life (3rd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Pine Forge Press.

Gottman, J. M. (1981). Time-series analysis: A comprehensive introduction for social scientists. New York: Cambridge University Press.

10.1037/0022-3514.75.1.82

Greene, W. H. (2000). Econometric analysis. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall.

10.1111/j.0033-0124.1989.00029.x

Hepworth, J. T. & West, S. G. (1988). Lynchings and the economy: A time-series reanalysis of Hovland and Sears (1940). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 55, 229-247.

10.1177/073401689301800203

Johnson, K. (2001, December 18). Crime rates down, but final total not yet in. USA Today, p.1. Retrieved December 18, 2001, from http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2001/12/18/usat-tbi.htm/

Judge, G. C., Griffiths, W. E., Hill, R. C., Lütkephol, H. & Lee, T. (1985). The theory and practice of econometrics (2nd ed.). New York: John Wiley.

Kenny, D. A., Kashy, D. A. & Bolger, N. (1998). Data analysis in social psychology. In D. T. Gilbert, S. T. Fiske, & G. Lindzey (Eds.), Handbook of social psychology, Vol. 1 (pp. 233-265). Boston: McGraw-Hill.

10.1086/229381

Landau, S. F. (1984). Trends in violence and aggression: A cross-cultural analysis. International Journal of Comparative Sociology, 25, 134-158.

Littell, R. C., Milliken, G. A., Stroup, W. W. & Wolfinger, R. D. (1996). SAS system for mixed models. Cary, NC: SAS Institute, Inc.

Ljung, G. M. & Box, G. E. F. (1978). On a measure of lack of fit in time series models. Biometrika, 64, 517-522.

10.1111/j.1600-0447.1994.tb01612.x

Malkai, B. G. (1990). A random walk down Wall Street. New York: Norton.

10.1037/0022-3514.64.6.1053

McCleary, R. & Hay, R. A., Jr. (1980). Applied time series analysis for the social sciences. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.

10.1176/ajp.140.7.883

Murray, W. L. (2001). Patterns and projected changes with climatic change. In J. Gamble (Ed.), Accidental injury and inclement weather: Defining the relationship and anticipating the effects of a changing climate (Environmental Protection Agency, Contract No. 68-C-99-238, pp. 12, Appendix). Springfield, VA: Versar, Inc.

National Climatic Data Center. (2002). NCDC: National Climate Data Center. Retrieved March 20, 2002, from http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html

10.1177/0146167201277001

Nisbett, R. E. & Cohen, D. (1996). Culture of honor. Boulder, CO: Westview.

10.1037/0003-066X.55.5.496

Parker, R. N. & Smith, M. D. (1979). Deterrence, poverty, and type of homicide. American Journal of Sociology, 75, 614-624.

10.1080/01621459.1967.10482923

10.1177/0146167201274010

Rotton, J. (1985). Astrological forecasts and the commodity marker: Random walks as a source of illusory correlation. Skeptical Inquirer, 9, 339-346.

10.1177/0013916593254005

10.2466/pr0.1993.73.1.259

Rotton, J. & Cohn, E. G. (1999). Errors of commission and errors of omission: Comment on Anderson and Anderson’s (1998) “Temperature and aggression.” Psychological Reports, 85, 611-620.

10.1037/0022-3514.78.6.1074

Rotton, J. & Cohn, E. G. (2001a, August). The ins and outs of temperature and assault. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Psychological Association, San Francisco, CA.

10.1891/0886-6708.16.2.203

Rotton, J. & Cohn, E. G. (2002). Climate, weather, and crime. In R. Bechtel & A. Churchman (Eds.), Handbook of environmental psychology (2nd ed., pp. 461-498). New York: John Wiley.

Rotton, J., Cohn, E. G., Peterson, A. & Tarr, D. (in press). Temperature, city size, and the Southern subculture of violence: Support for social escape/avoidance (SEA) theory. Journal of Applied Social Psychology.

10.1037/0022-3514.49.5.1207

Ruffner, J. A. & Bair, F. E. (Eds.). (1977). The weather almanac (2nd ed.). New York: Avon.

Ruffner, J. A. & Bair, F. E. (Eds.). (1987). The weather almanac (5th ed.). Detroit, MI: Gale.

Sayrs, L. W. (1989). Pooled time series analysis. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.

10.1037/0278-6133.17.1.6

STATS, Inc. (2001). Hot under the collar. Retrieved February 2001, from www.stats.org

Therivel, W. A. (1998). Creative genius and the GAM theory of personality: Why Mozart and not Salieri? Journal of Social Behavior and Personality, 13, 201-234.

Totterdell, P., Kellett, S., Bruner, R. B. & Teuchmann, K. (1999). Evidence of mood linkage in work groups. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 74, 1508-1515.

U.S. Bureau of the Census. (1951-1994). Statistical abstract of the United States. Washington, DC: Department of Commerce.

U.S. Bureau of the Census. (2002). U.S. Census Bureau. Retrieved March 20, 2002, from http://www.census.gov/

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2002). Bureau of Justice Statistics. Retrieved March 20, 2002, from http://stats.bls.gov/

U.S. Department of Commerce. (1950-2000). Climatological data. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.

U.S. Department of Justice. (2001). Criminal victimization 2000: Changes 1999-2000 with trends 1993-2000. Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics.

U.S. Department of Justice. (2002a). Bureau of justice statistics. Retrieved March 20,2002, from http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/

U.S. Department of Justice. (2002b). Criminal victimization in the United States, 2000 statistical tables. Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics. Also available at http://www.oip.usdoj.gov/bis/pub/pdf/cyus00.pdf

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2000). EPA’s global warming site. Retrieved 2000, from www.epa.gov/globalwarming

U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation. (1974). Uniform crime reports. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.

U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2001). Uniform crime reports. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.

Valentine, J. H., Ebert, J., Oakey, R. & Ernst, K. (1975). Human crises and the physical environment. Man-Environment Systems, 5(1), 23-28.

10.1111/j.1467-6494.1991.tb00261.x

Wood, R. A. (Ed.). (1999). The weather almanac (9th ed.). Detroit, MI: Gale.

Wood, R. A. (Ed.). (2000). The weather almanac (10th ed.). Detroit, MI: Gale.

10.2466/pms.2000.90.2.451

Zacharias, J., Stathopoulos, T. & Wu, H. (2001). Microclimate and downtown open space activity. Environment and Behavior, 31, 296-315.