Geoengineering and global warming: a strategic perspective
Tóm tắt
If major emitters fail to mitigate global warming, they may have to resort to geoengineering techniques that deflect sunlight from planet Earth and remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In this article, I develop a strategic theory of geoengineering. I emphasize two key features of geoengineering. First, whereas emissions reductions can be mandated now, geoengineering techniques are only available in the future. Second, major powers can unilaterally implement geoengineering projects that may hurt other countries. My game-theoretic analysis demonstrates that unilateral geoengineering presents a difficult governance problem if it produces negative externalities in foreign countries. Interestingly, countries may be tempted to reduce emissions now, so as to prevent a harmful geoengineering race in the future. The theoretical results can help scholars and policymakers understand the relationship between climate mitigation and geoengineering.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Barrett, S. (2003). Environment and statecraft: The strategy of environmental treaty-making. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Barrett, S. (2008a). Climate treaties and the imperative of enforcement. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 24(2), 239–258.
Barrett, S. (2008b). The incredible economics of geoengineering. Environmental and Resource Economics, 39(1), 45–54.
Bates, R. H., Greif, A., Levi, M., Rosenthal, J.-L., & Weingast, B. R. (Eds.). (1998). Analytic narratives. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Blackstock, J. J., & Jane, C. S. L. (2010). The politics of geoengineering. Science, 327(5965), 527.
Bracmort, K., Richard, K. L., & Emily, C. B. (2011). Geoengineering: Governance and technology policy. Congression research service, January 10.
Brovkin, V., Petoukhov, V., Claussen, M., Bauer, E., Archer, D., & Jaeger, C. (2009). Geoengineering climate by stratospheric sulfur injections: Earth system vulnerability to technological failure. Climatic Change, 92(3–4), 243–259.
Crutzen, P. J. (2006). Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: A contribution to resolve a policy dilemma? Climatic Change, 77(3–4), 211–220.
Eisenberger, P. M., Cohen, R. W., Chichilnisky, G., Eisenberger, N. M., Chance, R. R., & Christopher, W. J. (2009). Global warming and carbon-negative technology: Prospects for a lower-cost route to a lower-risk atmosphere. Energy and Environment, 20(6), 973–984.
Govindasamy, B., & Caldeira, K. (2000). Geoengineering earth’s radiation balance to mitigate CO2-induced climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 27(14), 2141–2144.
Millard-Ball, A. (2012). The Tuvalu syndrome: Can geoengineering solve climate’s collective action problem? Climatic Change, 110(3–4), 1047–1066.
Morton, R. B. (1999). Methods and models: A guide to the empirical analysis of formal models in political science. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Naik, V., Wuebbles, D. J., DeLucia, E. H., & Foley, J. A. (2003). Influence of geoengineered climate on the terrestrial biosphere. Environmental Management, 32(3), 373–381.
Olson, M. (1965). The logic of collective action: Public goods and the theory of groups. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Royal Society. (2009). Geoengineering the climate: Science, governance and uncertainty. RS policy document 10/09.
Schelling, T. C. (1996). The economic diplomacy of geoengineering. Climatic Change, 33(3): 303–307.
Schneider, S. H. (2004). Abrupt non-linear climate change, irreversibility and surprise. Global Environmental Change Part A 14(3), 245–258.
Stanhill, G., & Cohen, S. (2001). Global dimming: A review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation with discussion of Its probable cause and possible agricultural consequences. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 107(4), 255–278.
Stern, N. (2006). The economics of climate change: The stern review. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Tilmes, S., Müller, R., & Salawitch, R. (2008). The sensitivity of polar ozone depletion to proposed geoengineering schemes. Science, 320(5880), 1201–1204.
Victor, D. G. (2008). On the regulation of geoengineering. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 24(2), 322–336.
Virgoe, J. (2009). International governance of a possible geoengineering intervention to combat climate change. Climatic Change, 95(1–2), 103–119.