Futures of European welfare models and policies: seeking actual research questions, and new problem-solving arsenal for European welfare states

Beck U (1998) World Risk Society. Polity Press, Cambridge Giddens A (1990) Consequences of Modernity. Stanford University Press, Stanford Thurik AR, Audretsch DB, Stam E (2013) The rise of the entrepreneurial economy and the future of dynamic capitalism. Technovation 33(8–9):302–310 Huber E, Stephens J (2001) Development and Crisis of the Welfare State. University of Chicago Press, Chicago Hay C, Wincott D (2012) The Political Economy of European Welfare Capitalism. Palgrave Macmillan, Houndmills Graziano P, Jacquot S, Palier B (eds) (2011) The EU and Domestic Politics of the Welfare State Reforms. Palgrave Macmillan, Houndmills, Basingstoke Pierson P (2001) The New Politics of the Welfare State. Oxford University Press, Oxford Häusermann S (2010) The Politics of Welfare Reform in Continental Europe. Modernization in Hard Times. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Rothgang H, Obinger H, Leibfried S (2006) The state and its welfare state: How do welfare state changes affect the make-up of the nation state? Social Policy Administration 40(3):250–266 van Berkel R, de Graaf W, Sirovátka T (eds) (2011) The Governance of Active Welfare States in Europe, Palgrave. Basingstoke, Hampshire Hemerijck A (2012) Changing Welfare States. Oxford University Press, Oxford Graziano P, Jacquot S, Palier B (2011) Introduction: The Usages of Europe in National Employment-friendly Welfare State Reforms. In: Graziano P, Jacquot S, Palier B (eds) The EU and Domestic Politics of the Welfare State Reforms. Palgrave Macmillan, Houndmills, Basingstoke, pp 1–18 Craig A, Parsons TM, Smeeding M (2006) Immigration and the Transformation of Europe. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Bommes M, Geddes A (2002) Immigration and Welfare: Challenging the Borders of the Welfare State. Routledge, London and New York Bommes M, Sciortino G (2011) Foggy Social Structures: Irregular Migration, European Labour Markets and the Welfare State. Amsterdam University Press, Amsterdam Feldstein M, Liebman JB (2002) Social Security. In: Feldstein M, Auerbach AJ (eds) Handbook of Public Economics, vol 4. North Holland, Amsterdam, pp 2245–2324 Shelton CA (2008) The aging population and the size of the welfare state: Is there a puzzle? J Public Econ 92:647–651 Clark RL, Burkhauser RV, Moon M, Quinn JF, Smeeding TM (2004) The Economics of An Ageing Society. Blackwell, Oxford Galasso V, Profeta P (2002) Political economy models of social security: a survey. Eur J Polit Econ 18:1–29 Razin A, Sadka E, Swagel P (2002) The aging population and the size of the welfare state. J Polit Econ 110(4):900–918 Bloom DE, Boersch-Supan A, McGee P, Seike A (2011) Population aging: facts, challenges, and responses. PGDA Working Paper No. 71. https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2011/PGDA_WP_71.pdf Accessed 1 April 2013 Bijak J, Kupiszewska D, Kupiszewski M, Saczuk K (2013) The Future of European Populations and the European Labour Force, 2002–2052. In: Kupiszewski M (ed) International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 207–230 Taylor-Gooby P (2004) New Risks, New Welfare. The Transformation of the European Welfare State. Oxford University Press, Oxford Randers J (2012) 2052 - A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years. Chelsea Green Publishing, Vermont Esping-Andersen G (1996) After the Golden Age? Welfare State Dilemmas in a Global Economy. In: Esping-Andersen G (ed) Welfare States in Transition. National Adaptation in Global Economies. Sage, London, pp 1–31 Palier B, Thelen K (2010) Institutionalising dualism: complementarities and change in France and German. Politics Society 38:119–48 Kvist J, Fritzell J, Hvinden B, Kangas O (eds) (2011) Changing Social Equality. The Nordic Welfare State in the 21st Century. Policy Press, Bristol Aidukaite J (2011) Welfare reforms and socio-economic trends in the 10 new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe. Communist Post-Communist Studies 44:211–219 Cerami A, Vanhysse P (2009) Post-Communist Welfare Pathways. Theorizing Social Policy transformations in Central and Eastern Europe. Palgrave Macmillan, New York Toots A, Bachmann J (2010) Contemporary welfare regimes in Baltic States: Adapting post-communist conditions to post-modern challenges. Studies of Transition States and Societies 2(2):31–44 Bonoli G, Natali D (2012) The Politics of the New Welfare State. Oxford University Press, Oxford Hemerijck A (2012) Changing Welfare States. Oxford University Press, Oxford Bonoli G (2005) The politics of new social policies: providing coverage against new social risks in mature welfare states. Policy Politics 33(3):431–449 Seeleib-Kaiser M (2008) Welfare State Transformations. Palgrave, Basingstoke Palier B, Martin C (2008) Reforming the Bismarckian Welfare Systems. Blackwell Publishing, Malden Alcock P, Craig G (2009) International Social Policy: Welfare Regimes in the Developed World. Palgrave Macmillan, New York Alber J, Gilbert N (2010) United in diversity. Comparing social models in Europe and America. Oxford University Press Clasen J, Clegg D (2011) Regulating the Risk of Unemployment. National Adaptions to the Post-Industrial Labour Markets in Europe. Oxford University Press, Oxford Ennock EP (2015) Welfare state, history of international encyclopedia of the social & behavioral sciences, 2 edn., pp. 528–533 Beck H (1995) The Origins of the Authoritarian Welfare State in Prussia: Conservatives, Bureaucracy, and the Social Question. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, pp 1815–70 Kaufmann FX (2013) Variations of the Welfare State: Great Britain, Sweden, France and Germany between Capitalism and Socialism. Springer, Heidelberg Fraser D (2000) The Welfare State. Sutton, Stroud Galasso V, Profeta P (2002) The political economy of social security: A survey. Eur J Polit Econ 18:1–29 Cerami A, Vanhysse P (2009) Post-Communist Welfare Pathways. Theorizing Social Policy transformations in Central and Eastern Europe. Palgrave Macmillan, New York Aidukaite J (2009) Old welfare state theories and new welfare regimes in Eastern Europe: Challenges and implications. Communist Post-Communist Studies 42:23–39 Aidukaite J (2011) Welfare reforms and socio-economic trends in the 10 new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe. Communist Post-Communist Studies 44:211–219 Toots A, Bachmann J (2010) Contemporary welfare regimes in Baltic states: Adapting post-communist conditions to post-modern challenges. Studies Trans States Soc 2(2):31–44 Toots A (2012) Wohlfahrtsregime in den Baltischen Staaten: Gemeinsame Vergangenheit, Unterschiedliche Zukunft. In: Knodt M, Urdze S (eds) Die Politischen Systeme der Baltischen Staaten. Springer Verlag, Wiesbaden Kim PK (2010) The East Asian welfare state debate and surrogate social policy: an exploratory study on Japan and South Korea. Soc Econ Rev 8:411–435 Karim SA, Eikemo TA, Bambra C (2010) Welfare state regimes and population health: Integrating the East Asian welfare states. Health Policy 94:45–53 Kwon H (2009) Korea: rescaling the developmental welfare state? In: Alcock P, Craig G (eds) International social policy. Welfare Regimes in the Developed World. Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 231–246 Pierson P (2001) The New Politics of the Welfare State. Oxford University Press, Oxford Bonoli G (2006) New Social Risks and the Politics of Post-industrial Social Policies. In: Armingeon K, Bonoli G (eds) The Politics of Post-industrial Welfare States: Adapting Post-war Social Policies to New Social Risks. Routledge, London, pp 3–26 Taylor-Gooby P (2004) New Risks, New Welfare. The Transformation of the European Welfare State. Oxford University Press, Oxford Armingeon K, Bonoli G (eds) (2006) The Politics of Post-industrial Welfare States: Adapting Post-war Social Policies to New Social Risks. Routledge, London Cerami A (2008) New social risks in Central and Eastern Europe: the need for a new empowering politics of the welfare state. Czech Sociological Rev 44(6):1089–1110 Esping-Andersen G (2002) Why We Need a New Welfare State. Oxford University Press, Oxford Bonoli G, Natali D (2012) The Politics of the New Welfare State. Oxford University Press, Oxford Morel N, Palier B, Palme J (eds) (2012) Towards a Social Investment Welfare State? Ideas, Policies and Challenges. Policy Press, Bristol Vandenbroucke F (2001) The active welfare state: a social democratic ambition for Europe, The Policy Network Journal, Issue 1, March 2001 http://oud.frankvandenbroucke.be/html/soc/PU010213.htm Accessed 1 December 2013 van Berkel R, de Graaf W, Sirovátka T (eds) (2011) The Governance of Active Welfare States in Europe. Palgrave, Basingstoke, Hampshire de la Porte C, Jacobsson K (2012) Social investment or recommodification? Assessing the employment policies of the EU member states. In: Morel N, Palier B, Palme J (eds) Towards a Social Investment Welfare State? Ideas, Policies and Challenges. Policy Press, Bristol, pp 117–149 Kvist J (2013) The post crisis European social model: developing or dismantling social investments? J Int Comparative Social Policy 29(1):91–107 Cantillon B (2011) The paradox of the social investment welfare state: growth, employment and poverty in the Lisbon Era. J European Social Policy 21(5):432–449 Vandenbroucke F, Vleminckx K (2011) Disappointing poverty trends: is the social investment state to blame? J European Social Policy 19(5):450–471 Cantillon B, Van Lancker W (2013) Three Shortcomings of the Social Investment Perspective. Social Policy Society 12(4):553–564 Gough I, Meadowcroft J (2011) Decarbonizing the welfare state. In: Dryzek J, Norgaard R, Schlosberg D (eds) The Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society, pp. 490–503 Kaivo-oja J, Vehmas J, Luukkanen J (2014) A note: de-growth debate and new scientific analysis of economic growth. J Environ Protection 5 (15) Meadowcroft J (2005) From Welfare State to Ecostate? In: Barry J, Eckersley R (eds) The State and the Global Ecological Crisis. MIT Press, Cambridge, pp 3–23 Jackson T (2009) Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet. Earthscan, London Castells M, Himanen P (2002) The Information Society and the Welfare State: The Finnish Model. Oxford University Press, Oxford Glennerster H (2010) The Sustainability of Western Welfare States. In: Castles F, Leibfried S, Lewis J, Obinger H, Pierson C (eds) The Oxford Handbook of the Welfare State. Oxford University Press, Oxford, p 700 Korpi W, Palme J (1998) The paradox of redistribution and strategies of equality: Welfare state institutions, inequality and poverty in Western countries. Am Sociol Rev 63(5):661–687 Rothstein B (1998) Just Institutions Matter: The Moral and Political Logic of the Universal Welfare State. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Pierson P (1996) The new politics of the welfare state. World Politics 48(2):143–179 Bonoli G, Natali D (2012) The Politics of the New Welfare State. Oxford University Press, Oxford Hemerijck A (2012) Changing Welfare States. Oxford University Press, Oxford Veggeland N (2007) Paths of Public Innovation in the Global Age: Lessons from the Scandinavia. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham Miettinen R (2012) Innovation, Human Capablities and Democracy. Towards an Enabling Welfare State. Oxford University Press, Oxford Kristensen PH, Lilja K (2012) Nordic Capitalism and Globalization. New Forms of Economic Organizations and Welfare Institutions. Oxford University Press, Oxford Leibfried S (ed) (2001) Welfare State Futures. Polity Press, Cambridge Castles F (2004) The Future of the Welfare State: Crisis Myths and Crisis Realities. Oxford University Press, Oxford Ferrera M (2005) The Boundaries of Welfare: European Integration and the New Spatial Politics of Social Protection. Oxford University Press, Oxford Taylor-Gooby P (2002) The Silver Age of the Welfare State: Perspectives on Resilience. J Social Policy 31:597 Shah N (2012) Welfare and technology in the network society—Concerns for the future of welfare. Futures 44:659–665 Glatzer M, Rueschemeyer D (eds) (2005) Globalization and the Future of the Welfare State. University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh Mortensen J, Vilella-Vila M (2012) The future of employment supply and demand in social Europe. Futures 44:671–677 Khallash S, Kruse M (2012) The future of work and work-life balance 2025. Futures 44:678–686 Esping-Andersen G (2009) The Incomplete Revolution. Adapting Welfare States to Women New Roles. Polity Press, Cambridge, Cambridge Bell W (1996) Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era, vol 1. Transaction, New Brunswick Kwakkel JH, Auping WL, Pruyt E (2013) Dynamic scenario discovery under deep uncertainty: The future of copper. Technological Forecasting Social Change 80:789–800 Karlsen JE, Øverland EF (2012) Promoting diversity in long-term policy development: The SMARTT case of Norway. Journal of Futures Studies 16(3):63–78 Schirrmeister E, Warnke P (2013) Envisioning structural transformation — lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation. Technological Forecasting Social Change 80:453–466 Øverland EF (2013) Universal perspectivism. Transcending “facta” and “futura” through foresight theory building. On The Horizon, US Kaivo-oja J, Stenvall J (2013) Foresight, governance and complexity of systems: On the way towards pragmatic governance paradigm. European Integration Studies 7:28–34 European Commission (2015) For learn. Support to mutual learning between foresight managers, practitioners, users and stakeholders of policy-making organisations in Europe. Online Foresight Guide. http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.htm Accessed 26 November 2015 Toots A, Lauri T (2015) Institutional and contextual factors of quality in civic and citizenship education: Exploring possibilities of qualitative comparative analysis. Comp Educ 51(2):247–275 Vilja V, Tapio P (2013) Combining the qualitative and quantitative with the Q2 scenario technique — The case of transport and climate. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 80(4):611–630 Helmer O (1983) Looking forward: A guide to future research. Sage, Beverly Hills Armstrong JS (2001) Combining forecasts. In: Armstrong JS (ed) Principles of forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners. Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 417–439 Cuhls K (2003) From forecasting to foresight processes—new participative foresight activities in Germany. Technol Foresight 22(2–3):93–111 Yousuf MI (2007) Using experts’ opinions through Delphi technique. Practical Assessment Research & Evaluation, 12(4). http://pareonline.net/pdf/v12n4.pdf Accessed 26 November 2015 Rihoux B, Rezsöhazy I, Bol D (2011) Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) in Public Policy Analysis: an Extensive Review. German Policy Studies 7–3:9–82 Rihoux B, Ragin C (2009) Configurational Comparative Methods: Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and Related Techniques, Applied Social Research Methods Series. Sage, London Manza J (2006) Why do welfare states persist? J Politics 68(4):816–827 Scruggs L (2007) Welfare state generosity across space and time. In: Clasen J, Siegel N (eds) Investigating welfare state change the ‘dependent variable problem’ in comparative analysis, EE Publishing, pp. 131–165 Luukkanen J, Vehmas J, Panula-Ontto J, Allievi F, Kaivo-oja J, Pasanen T, Auffermann B (2012) Synergies or trade-offs? A new method to quantify synergy between different dimensions of sustainability. Environ Policy Governance 22(5):337–349 Kaivo-oja J, Panula-Ontto J, Luukkanen J, Vehmas J (2014) Relationships of the dimensions of sustainability as measured by the Sustainable Society Index framework. Int J Sustainable Develop World Ecol 21(1):39–45 Andor L, Arnaudova A, Berès P, Birkavs V, Dhéret C, Götz G, Hemerijck A, Hubert A, Larsson A, Martens H, McCartney C, McLoughlin S, Molino E, Parent AS, Pascouau Y, Saraceno C, Wong W, Zuleeg F (2011) Growth, well-being and social policy in Europe: trade-off or synergy. Challenge Europe. Issue 21. European Policy Centre. Foreword by José Manuel Barroso European Policies and Politics (2011) EC “Budget for Europe 2020” – Employment and Social affairs. Archive for Employment and Social affairs. http://www.policies.eu.org/?cat=32 Accessed 29 June 2011 Alfonsi F (2011) Working document on the evolution of EU macro-regional strategies: present practice and future prospects, especially in the Mediterranean. Committee on Regional Development. 21.10.2011. European Parliament. PE474.079v01-00 Turoff M (1970) The Policy Delphi. J Technol Forecasting Social Change 2:149–172 Linstone HA, Turoff M (1975) The Delphi method: Techniques and Applications. Reading Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Massachusetts Linstone HA (2002) The Delphi method techniques and applications. Electronic version: http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ Accessed 26 November 2015 Kreibich R, Oertel B, Wölk M (2011) Futures studies and future-oriented technology analysis principles, methodology and research questions, paper prepared for the 1st Berlin Symposium on Internet and Society, Oct. 25–27, 2011 Turoff M, Starr RH (1996) Computer Based Delphi Processes. In: Adler Z (ed) Gazing Into the Oracle: The Delphi Method and Its Application to Social Policy and Public Health. Kingsley Publishers, London Tapio P (2003) Disaggregative Policy Delphi. Using cluster analysis as a tool for systematic scenario formation. Technological Forecasting Social Change 70(1):83–101 Perkiö M (2009) Introduction: conceptualising social development. In perspectives for global social development. Tampere University Press, p. 15 Rikkonen P, Aakkula J, Kaivo-oja J (2006) How can future changes in Finnish agriculture and agricultural policy be faced: Defining strategic agendas on the basis of a Delphi study. Eur Plan Stud 14(2):147–167 Rikkonen P, Kaivo-oja J, Aakkula J (2006) Delphi Expert Panels in the Scenario-based Strategic Planning of Agriculture. Foresight. J Futures Studies, Strategic Thinking Policy 8(1):66–81 Hiltunen E (2009) Scenarios: Process and outcome. J Futures Studies 13(3):151–152 Terk E (2013) Opportunities for Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches in Scenario Building: Experience of the ‘Estonia 2010’ Project. In: Giaoutzi M, Sapio B (eds) Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies. Springer, New York, pp 297–307 Neumann IB, Øverland EF (2004) International Relations and Policy Planning: the Method of Perspectivist Scenario Building. Int Stud Perspect 5:258–277 Øverland EF (2002) Norway 2030. Five scenarios about the future of public sector (CD-Rom) European Commission, Brussels Kaivo-oja J, Suvinen N (2001) Sosiaali- ja terveysalan tulevaisuuden näkymät vuoteen 2030. [Futures prospects of social and health care services in Finland till 2030]. In: Voutilainen P, Saranto K, Peiponen A, Mikkola T (eds) Hoitotyön vuosikirja 2002. Hoitotyön tulevaisuus. [Yearbook of Health Care 2002: Futures of Health Care] Hygieia. Kustannusosakeyhtiö Tammi, Helsinki, pp 9–45 Keenan M, Loveridge D, Miles I, Kaivo-oja J (2003) Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight. Prepared by PREST and FFRC for European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions. European Foundation, Dublin Borch K, Dingli S, Jørgensen MS (2013) Participation and Interaction in Foresight. Dialogue, Dissemination and Visions. Edgar Elgar Publishing, Leicester Greenbaum TL (1998) 10 Tips for running successful focus groups. http://www.groupsplus.com/pages/mn091498.htm Accessed 30 March 2006 Southwell B, Blake S, Torres A (2005) Lessons on Focus Group methodology from a science television news project. Tech Commun 52(2):187–193 Ebbinghaus B (2012) Varieties of Pension Governance under Pressure: Funded Pensions in Western Europe. CESifo DICE Report 4:3–8 Vehmas J, Luukkanen J, Kaivo-oja J (2007) Linking analyses and environmental Kuznets curves for material flows in the European Union 1980–2000. J Clean Prod 15(7):1662–1673 Kaivo-oja J (2001) Scenario learning and potential sustainable development processes in spatial contexts: Towards risk society or ecological modernization scenarios? Futur Res Q 17(2):33–55 Kaivo-oja J, Luukkanen J, Malaska P (2001) Sustainability evaluation frameworks and alternative analytical scenarios of national economies. Population and Environment. J Interdisciplinary Studies 23(2):193–215 Kaivo-oja J (1999) Alternative scenarios of social development: Is analytical sustainability policy analysis possible? How? Sustain Dev 7(3):140–150 NORFACE (2015) Welfare state futures. NORFACE ERA-NET. http://www.norface.net/84 Accessed 26 November 2015 Hoff M, McNutt J (2009) Social Policy and the Physical Environment. In: Midgley J, Livermore M (eds) The Handbook of Social Policy, 2nd edn. Sage, London, pp 295–313