Future of Abies pindrow in Swat district, northern Pakistan
Tóm tắt
Swat district is a biodiversity hub of Pakistan. The plant species, especially trees, in the Swat District are exposed to extinction threat from global climate change. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling of species distribution, using HADCM3 A2a global climate change scenario, predicted a considerable change in the future distribution of Abies pindrow (Royle ex D.Don) Royle. AUC (area under the curve) values of 0.972 and 0.983 were significant for the present and future distribution models of the species, respectively. It is clear that bioclimatic variables such as the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio_10) and the annual temperature range (bio_7) contribute significantly to the model and thus affect the predicted distribution and density of the species. The future model predicts that by the year 2080 population density will have decreased significantly. The highest density of the species is recorded in the eastern and western borders of the Valley in the areas of Sulatanr and Mankial. The changes in density and distribution of the species can have considerable impact, not only on the tree species itself, but on the associated subflora as well.
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