Fusing pollen-stratigraphic and dendroclimatic proxy data to reconstruct summer temperature variability during the past 7.5 ka in subarctic Fennoscandia

Arjava A (1995) The mystery cloud of 536 CE in the Mediterranean sources. Dumbart Oaks Pap 59:73–94 Berger A (1978) Long-term variations of caloric insolation resulting from the Earth’s orbital elements. Quat Res 9:139–167 Berger A (1988) Milankovitch theory and climate. Rev Geophys 26:624–657 Bigler C, Larocque I, Peglar SM, Birks HJB, Hall RI (2002) Quantitative multiproxy assessment of long-term patterns of Holocene environmental change from a small lake near Abisko, northern Sweden. Holocene 12:481–496 Birks HJB (1995) Quantitative palaeoenvironmental reconstructions. In: Maddy D, Brew JS (eds) Statistical modelling of quaternary science data. Technical guide 5. Quaternary Research Association, Cambridge, pp 161–254 Birks HJB (2005) Fifty years of quaternary pollen analysis in Fennoscandia 1954–2004. Grana 44:1–22 Birks HJB (2008) Holocene climate research—progress, paradigms, and problems. In: Battarbee RW, Binney H (eds) Natural climate variability and global warming: a Holocene perspective. Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, pp 7–57 Birks HJB, Seppä H (2004) Pollen-based reconstructions of the late-quaternary climate in Europe—progress, problems, and pitfalls. Acta Palaeobot 44:317–334 Birks HJB, Seppä H (2010) Late-Quaternary palaeoclimatic research in Fennoscandia—a historical review. Boreas 39:655–673 Birks HJB, Heiri O, Seppä H, Bjune AE (2010) Strengths and weaknesses of quantitative climate reconstructions based on late-Quaternary biological proxies. Open Ecol J 3:68–110 Bjune AE, Birks HJB (2008) Holocene vegetation dynamics and inferred climate changes at Svanåvatnet, Mo i Rana, northern Norway. Boreas 37:146–156 Bjune AE, Birks HJB, Seppä H (2004) Holocene vegetation and climate history on a continental-oceanic transect in northern Fennoscandia based on pollen and plant macrofossils. Boreas 33:211–223 Bjune AE, Seppä H, Birks HJB (2009) Quantitative summer-temperature reconstructions for the last 2000 years based on pollen-stratigraphical data from northern Fennoscandia. J Paleolimnol 41:43–56 Bjune AE, Birks HJB, Peglar SM, Odland A (2010) Developing a modern pollen-climate calibration data-set for Norway. Boreas 39:674–688 Boettger T, Hiller A, Kremenetski K (2003) Mid-Holocene warming in the northwest Kola Peninsula, Russia: northern pine-limit movement and stable isotope evidence. Holocene 13:403–410 Bradley RS, Jones PD (1993) ‘Little Ice Age’ summer temperature variations: their nature and relevance to recent global warming trends. Holocene 3:367–376 Briffa KR, Jones PD, Pilcher JR, Hughes MK (1988) Reconstructing summer temperatures in northern Fennoscandia back to AD 1700 using tree-ring data from Scots pine. Arct Alp Res 20:385–394 Broecker WS (2001) Was the medieval warm period global? Science 291:1497–1499 Cook ER, Peters K (1981) The smoothing spline: a new approach to standardizing forest interior tree-ring series for dendroclimatic studies. Tree-Ring Bull 41:45–53 Cook ER, Briffa KR, Meko DM, Graybill DA, Funkhouser G (1995) The ‘segment length curse’ in long tree-ring chronology development for palaeoclimatic studies. Holocene 5:229–237 Crowley TJ (2000) Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science 289:270–277 D’Arrigo R, Wilson R, Jacoby G (2006) On the long-term context for late twentieth century warming. J Geophys Res 111:D03103 Eronen M (1979) The retreat of pine forest in Finnish Lapland since the Holocene climatic optimum: a general discussion with radiocarbon evidence from subfossil pines. Fennia 157:93–114 Eronen M, Hyvärinen H, Zetterberg P (1999) Holocene humidity changes in northern Finnish Lapland inferred from lake sediments and submerged Scots pines dated by tree rings. Holocene 9:569–580 Eronen M, Zetterberg P, Briffa KR, Lindholm M, Meriläinen J, Timonen M (2002) The supra-long Scots pine tree-ring record for Finnish Lapland. Part 1: chronology construction and initial references. Holocene 12:673–680 Esper J, Frank DC, Wilson RJS, Briffa KR (2005) Effect of scaling and regression on reconstructed temperature amplitude for the past millennium. Geophys Res Lett 32:L07711 Fritts HC (1976) Tree rings and climate. Academic Press, London Grudd H, Briffa KR, Karlén W, Bartholin TS, Jones PD, Kromer B (2002) A 7400-year tree-ring chronology in northern Swedish Lapland: natural climatic variability. Holocene 12:657–665 Guiot J (1985) The extrapolation of recent climatological series with spectral canonical regression. J Climatol 5:325–335 Guiot J, Corona C, ESCARSEL members (2010) Growing season temperatures in Europe and climate forcings over the past 1400 years. PLoS ONE 5(4):e9972. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0009972 Heegaard E, Birks HJB, Telford RJ (2005) Relationships between calibrated ages and depth in stratigraphical sequences: an estimation procedure by mixed-effect regression. Holocene 15:612–618 Heikkilä M, Seppä H (2003) A 11,000 yr palaeotemperature reconstruction from the southern boreal zone in Finland. Quat Sci Rev 22:541–554 Helama S (2004) Millennia-long tree-ring chronologies as records of climate variability in Finland. Doctoral dissertation, University of Helsinki Helama S, Lindholm M, Timonen M, Meriläinen J, Eronen M (2002) The supra-long Scots pine tree-ring record for Finnish Lapland: part 2, interannual to centennial variability in summer temperatures for 7500 years. Holocene 12:681–687 Helama S, Holopainen J, Timonen M, Ogurtsov MG, Lindholm M, Meriläinen J, Eronen M (2004) Comparison of living-tree and subfossil ringwidths with summer temperatures from 18th, 19th and 20th centuries in northern Finland. Dendrochronologia 21:147–154 Helama S, Timonen M, Lindholm M, Meriläinen J, Eronen M (2005) Extracting long period climate fluctuations from tree-ring chronologies over timescales of centuries to millennia. Int J Climatol 25:1767–1779 Helama S, Mielikäinen K, Timonen M, Eronen M (2008) Finnish supra-long tree-ring chronology extended to 5634 BC. Nor J Geogr 62:271–277 Helama S, Meriläinen J, Tuomenvirta H (2009a) Multicentennial megadrought in northern Europe coincided with a global El Niño–Southern Oscillation drought pattern during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Geology 37:175–178 Helama S, Timonen M, Holopainen J, Ogurtsov MG, Mielikäinen K, Eronen M, Lindholm M, Meriläinen J (2009b) Summer temperature variations in Lapland during the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age relative to natural instability of thermohaline circulation on multi-decadal and multi-centennial scales. J Quat Sci 24:450–456 Helama S, Macias Fauria M, Mielikäinen K, Timonen M, Eronen M (2010a) Sub-Milankovitch solar forcing of past climates: mid and late Holocene perspectives. Geol Soc Am Bull 122:1981–1988 Helama S, Seppä H, Birks HJB, Bjune AE (2010b) Reconciling pollen-stratigraphical and tree-ring evidence for high- and low-frequency temperature variability in the past millennium. Quat Sci Rev 29:3905–3918 Holopainen J (2006) Reconstructions of past climates from documentary and natural sources in Finland since the 18th century. University of Helsinki, Doctoral dissertation. Publ Dep Geol D9:1–33 Kerr RA (2008) Climate tipping points come in from the cold. Science 319:153 Klingbjer P, Moberg A (2003) A composite monthly temperature record from Tornedalen in northern Sweden, 1802–2002. Int J Climatol 23:1465–1494 Lenton TM, Held H, Kriegler E, Hall JW, Lucht W, Rahmstorf S, Schellnhuber HJ (2008) Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:1786–1793 Li B, Nychka DW, Amman CW (2010) The value of multiproxy reconstructions of past climate. J Am Stat Assoc 105:863–895 Linderholm HW, Björklund J, Seftigen K, Gunnarson BE, Drobyshev I, Jeong J-H, Stridbeck P, Liu Y (2010) Dendroclimatology in Fennoscandia from past accomplishments to future potential. Clim Past 6:93–114 Lindsay RW, Zhang J (2005) The thinning of Arctic sea ice, 1988–2003: have we passed a tipping point? J Clim 18:4879–4894 Macias Fauria M, Grinsted A, Helama S, Moore J, Timonen M, Martma T, Isaksson E, Eronen M (2010) Unprecedented low twentieth century winter sea ice extent in the Western Nordic Seas since A.D. 1200. Clim Dyn 34:781–795 Mann ME (2002) The value of multiple proxies. Science 297:1481–1482 Mann ME, Zhang Z, Rutherford S, Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Shindell D, Ammann C, Faluvegi G, Ni F (2009) Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Science 326:1256–1260 Matthews JA, Briffa KR (2005) The ‘Little Ice Age’: re-evaluation of an evolving concept. Geogr Ann 87A:17–36 Moberg A, Sonechkin DM, Holmgren K, Datsenko NM, Karlén W, Lauritzen SE (2005) Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433:613–617 Moen A (1999) National Atlas of Norway—Vegetation. Norwegian mapping authority, Hønefoss Renssen H, Goosse H, Fichefet T, Brovkin V, Driesschaert E, Wolk F (2005) Simulating the Holocene climate evolution at northern high latitudes using a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model. Clim Dyn 24:23–43 Rodionov SN (2004) A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts. Geophys Res Lett 31. doi:10.1029/2004GL019448 Russill C, Nyssa Z (2009) The tipping point trend in climate change communication. Global Environ Chang 19:336–344 Seppä H (1996) Post-glacial dynamics of vegetation and treelines in the far north of Fennoscandia. Fennia 174:1–96 Seppä H (1998) Postglacial trends in palynological richness in the northern Fennoscandian tree-line area and their ecological interpretation. Holocene 8:43–53 Seppä H, Birks HJB (2001) July mean temperature and annual precipitation trends during the Holocene in the Fennoscandian tree-line area: pollen-based reconstructions. Holocene 11:527–539 Seppä H, Birks HJB (2002) Holocene climate reconstructions from the Fennoscandian tree-line area based on pollen data from Toskaljavri. Quat Res 57:191–199 Seppä H, Weckström J (1999) Holocene vegetational and limnological changes in the Fennoscandian tree-line area as documented by pollen and diatom records from Lake Tsuolbmajavri, Finland. Écoscience 6:621–635 Seppä H, Nyman M, Korhola A, Weckström J (2002) Changes of treelines and alpine vegetation in relation to post-glacial climate dynamics in northern Fennscandia based on pollen and chironomid records. J Quat Sci 17:287–301 Seppä H, MacDonald GM, Birks HJB, Gervais BR, Snyder JA (2008) Late- Quaternary summer temperature changes in the northern-European tree-line region. Quat Res 69:404–412 Seppä H, Bjune AE, Telford RJ, Birks HJB, Veski S (2009) Last nine-thousand years of temperature variability in Northern Europe. Clim Past 5:523–535 Solanki SK, Usoskin IG, Kromer B, Schüssler M, Beer J (2004) Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years. Nature 431:1084–1087 Tietäväinen H, Tuomenvirta H, Venäläinen H (2010) Annual and seasonal mean temperatures in Finland during the last 160 years based on gridded temperature data. Int J Climatol 30:2247–2256 Tiwari RK, Maiti S (2011) Bayesian neural network modeling of tree-ring temperature variability record from the Western Himalayas. Nonlin Process Geophys 18:515–528 Velle G, Kongshavn K, Birks HJB (2011) Minimizing the edge-effect in environmental reconstructions by trimming the calibration set: chironomid-inferred temperatures from Spitsbergen. Holocene 21:417–430 Yang B, Sonechkin DM, Datsenko NM, Ivashchenko NN, Liu J, Qin C (2011) Eigen analysis of tree-ring records: part 1, a limited representativeness of regional curve. Theor Appl Climatol 106:489–497 Yang B, Sonechkin DM, Datsenko NM, Ivashchenko NN, Liu J, Qin C (2012) Eigen analysis of tree-ring records: part 2, posing the Eigen problem. Theor Appl Climatol 107:131–141