Frozen ground degradation may reduce future runoff in the headwaters of an inland river on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Bales, 2006, Mountain hydrology of the western United States, Water Resour. Res., 42, 10.1029/2005WR004387 Barry, 2011 Boé, 2007, Statistical and dynamical downscaling of the Seine basin climate for hydro-meteorological studies, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1643, 10.1002/joc.1602 Bosson, 2012, Influences of shifts in climate, landscape, and permafrost on terrestrial hydrology, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 117(D5) Budyko, 1974 Cao, 2012, Changes of Groundwater Storage in the Heihe River Basin Derived from GRACE Gravity Satellite Data, J. Glaciol. Geocryol., 3, 680 Chen, 2018, Effects of Cryospheric Change on Alpine Hydrology: Combining a Model with Observations in the Upper Reaches of the Hei River, China, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. Cheng, 2007, Responses of permafrost to climate change and their environmental significance, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, J. Geophys. Res., 112, 10.1029/2006JF000631 Cheng, 2013, Permafrost and groundwater on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and in northeast China, Hydrogeol. J., 21, 5, 10.1007/s10040-012-0927-2 Chiew, 2006, Precipitation elasticity of streamflow in catchments across the world, IAHS publication, 308, 256 Cuo, 2014, Characteristics and changes of streamflow on the Tibetan Plateau: a review, J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 2, 49, 10.1016/j.ejrh.2014.08.004 Cuo, 2015, Frozen soil degradation and its effects on surface hydrology in the northern Tibetan Plateau, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 8276, 10.1002/2015JD023193 Fan, 2014, Heihe 1km LAI production, Heihe Plan Science Data Center at Lanzhou Fowler, 2007, Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1547, 10.1002/joc.1556 Fu, 1981, On the Calculation of the Evaporation from Land Surface, Scientia Atmospherica Sinica, 5, 23 Fu, 2013, A score-based method for assessing the performance of GCMs: A case study of southeastern Australia, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 118, 4154, 10.1002/jgrd.50269 Gao, 2012 Gao, 2016, Modeling Ecohydrological Processes and Spatial Patterns in the Upper Heihe Basin in China, Forests, 7, 10 Gao, 2018, Change in frozen soils and its effect on regional hydrology, upper Heihe basin, northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, The Cryosphere, 12, 657, 10.5194/tc-12-657-2018 Guo, 2014 Hu, 2014, Evaluation of CMIP5 Models over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 924 Immerzeel, 2010, Climate Change Will Affect the Asian Water Towers, Science, 328, 1382, 10.1126/science.1183188 Immerzeel, 2012, Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas, Clim. Change, 110, 721, 10.1007/s10584-011-0143-4 [dataset] Jarvis, A., Reuter, H. I., Nelson, A., and Guevara, E., 2008. Hole-filled SRTM for the globe Version 4. [Available online from the CGIAR-CSI SRTM 90m Databaseat http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org.]. Jin, 2009, Changes in frozen ground in the Source Area of the Yellow River on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China, and their eco-environmental impacts, Environ. Res. Lett., 4, 045206, 10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045206 Kang, 2010, Review of climate and cryospheric change in the Tibetan Plateau, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/015101 Konapala, 2016, Three-parameter-based streamflow elasticity model: application to MOPEX basins in the USA at annual and seasonal scales, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2545, 10.5194/hess-20-2545-2016 Lawrence, 2015, Permafrost thaw and resulting soil moisture changes regulate projected high-latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094011 Lyon, 2010, Changes in Catchment-Scale Recession Flow Properties in Response to Permafrost Thawing in the Yukon River Basin, Int. J. Climatol., 30, 2138, 10.1002/joc.1993 Lyon, 2009, Estimation of permafrost thawing rates in a sub-arctic catchment using recession flow analysis, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sc., 13, 595, 10.5194/hess-13-595-2009 Ma, 2010, Impact of climate variability and human activity on streamflow decrease in the Miyun Reservoir catchment, J. Hydrol., 389, 317, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.010 McNamara, 1998, An analysis of streamflow hydrology in the Kuparuk River Basin, Arctic Alaska: a nested watershed approach, J. Hydrol., 206, 39, 10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00083-3 New, M., Hulme, M., Jones, P., 2000. Representing Twentieth-Century Space-Time Climate Variability. Part II: Development of 1901-96 Monthly Grids of Terrestrial Surface Climate, 13 (13) 2217-2238. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2217:RTCSTC>2.0.CO;2. Ning, 2008, Advances on Water Resources Research in Heihe River Basin, J. Desert Res., 28, 1180 Peng, 2017, Response of seasonal soil freeze depth to climate change across China, The Cryosphere, 11, 1059, 10.5194/tc-11-1059-2017 Qin, 2016, Long-term change in the depth of seasonally frozen ground and its ecohydrological impacts in the Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, J. Hydrol., 542, 204, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.09.008 Qiu, 2012, Thawing permafrost reduces river runoff, Nature News Rogger, 2017, Impact of mountain permafrost on flow path and runoff response in a high alpine catchment, Water Resour. Res., 53, 1288, 10.1002/2016WR019341 Sankarasubramanian, 2001, Climate elasticity of streamflow in the United States, Water Resour. Res., 37, 1771, 10.1029/2000WR900330 Schaake, J.C., 1990. In: Waggoner, P.E. (Ed.), From Climate to Flow in Climate Change and US Water Resources. John Wiley, New York, pp. 177–206 (Chapter 8). Song, 2016, Mapping soil organic carbon content by geographically weighted regression: a case study in the Heihe River Basin, China, Geoderma, 261, 11, 10.1016/j.geoderma.2015.06.024 Su, 2016, Hydrological response to future climate changes for the major upstream river basins in the Tibetan Plateau, Global Planet. Change, 136, 82, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.10.012 Wang, 2010, Frozen soil parameterization in a distributed biosphere hydrological model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 557, 10.5194/hess-14-557-2010 Wang, 2013, Investigation of permafrost distribution over the upper reaches of the heihe River in the Qilian Mountains, J. Glaciol. Geocryol., 35, 19 Wang, 2018, Quantifying the streamflow response to frozen ground degradation in the source region of the Yellow River within the Budyko framework, J. Hydrol., 558, 301, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.01.050 Wang, 2015, Impact of cryosphere hydrological processes on the river runoff in the upper reaches of Heihe River, J. Hydraul. Eng., 46, 1064 Wang, 2017, Spatial Interpolation of Daily Precipitation in a High Mountainous Watershed Based on Gauge Observations and a Regional Climate Model Simulation, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 845, 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0089.1 Wilby, R.L., Harris, I., 2006. A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: low-flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK. Water Resour. Res. 42(2). doi:10.1029/2005WR004065. Willmott, 1985, Small-Scale Climate Maps: A Sensitivity Analysis of Some Common Assumptions Associated with Grid-Point Interpolation and Contouring, 12, 5 Woo, 2012 Wood, 2002, Long-range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 10.1029/2001JD000659 Wood, 2004, Hydrologic Implications of Dynamical and Statistical Approaches to Downscaling Climate Model Outputs, Clim. Change, 62, 189, 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013685.99609.9e Wu, Q. and Zhang, T., 2010. Changes in active layer thickness over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1995 to 2007. J. Geophys. Res. 115(D9). doi: 10.1029/2009JD012974. Xu, 2014, Attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for detecting the dominant cause of runoff decline in Haihe basin, J. Hydrol., 510, 530, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.052 Yang, 2002, A hillslope-based hydrological model using catchment area and width functions, Hydrol. Sci. J., 47, 49, 10.1080/02626660209492907 Yang, 2004, Application of a distributed hydrological model to the Yellow River basin, Acta Geographica Sinica-Chinese Edition, 59, 143 Yang, 2015, A distributed scheme developed for eco-hydrological modeling in the upper Heihe River, Sci. China Earth Sci., 58, 36, 10.1007/s11430-014-5029-7 Yang, 2011, Derivation of climate elasticity of runoff to assess the effects of climate change on annual runoff, Water Resour. Res., 47, 197, 10.1029/2010WR009287 Yang, 2011, Response of hydrological cycle to recent climate changes in the Tibetan Plateau, Clim. Change, 109, 517, 10.1007/s10584-011-0099-4 Yao, 2007, Recent Glacial Retreat and Its Impact on Hydrological Processes on the Tibetan Plateau, China, and Surrounding Regions, Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res., 39, 642, 10.1657/1523-0430(07-510)[YAO]2.0.CO;2 Zhang, 2016, How Will Climate Change Affect the Water Availability in the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China?, J. Hydrometeorol., 17, 1517, 10.1175/JHM-D-15-0058.1 Zhang, 2016, Hydrological change driven by human activities and climate variation and its spatial variability in Huaihe Basin, China, 61, 1370 Zhou, J., Zheng, Y., 2014. Vegetation Map of the upper Heihe basin, Version 2.0, Heihe Plan Science Data Center at Lanzhou, China. doi:10.3972/heihe.426.2014.db.