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Giải tích phân phân đoạn trong mô hình tăng trưởng kinh tế của Nhóm Bảy quốc gia
Tóm tắt
Bài báo này trình bày các mô hình tăng trưởng kinh tế cho tất cả các quốc gia trong Nhóm Bảy (G7) trong giai đoạn 1973–2016. Các mô hình bao gồm các phương trình vi phân, với cả bậc nguyên và bậc phân đoạn, trong đó tổng sản phẩm quốc nội (GDP) là một hàm của diện tích đất, đất canh tác, dân số, tỷ lệ đi học, hình thành vốn cố định gộp (GCF), xuất khẩu hàng hóa và dịch vụ, chi tiêu tiêu dùng cuối cùng của chính phủ (GGFCE), và cung tiền rộng (M3). Các kết quả cho thấy các mô hình phân đoạn có hiệu suất tốt hơn, được đo lường bằng nhiều thống kê tóm tắt, mà không làm tăng số lượng tham số, hoặc hy sinh khả năng dự đoán sự phát triển của GDP trong ngắn hạn. Một quy trình xác nhận tiêu chuẩn cho các mô hình tăng trưởng kinh tế được trình bày để đánh giá các mô hình trong tương lai.
Từ khóa
#tăng trưởng kinh tế #mô hình vi phân #Nhóm Bảy (G7) #tổng sản phẩm quốc nội (GDP) #diện tích đất #đất canh tácTài liệu tham khảo
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