Forest disturbances under climate change

Nature Climate Change - Tập 7 Số 6 - Trang 395-402 - 2017
Rupert Seidl1, Dominik Thom1, Markus Kautz2, Dario Martín-Benito3, Mikko Peltoniemi4, Giorgio Vacchiano5, Jan Wild6, Davide Ascoli7, Michal Petr8, Juha Honkaniemi4, Manfred J. Lexer1, Volodymyr Trotsiuk9, Paola Mairota10, Miroslav Svoboda9, Marek Fabrika11, Thomas A. Nagel9, Christopher Reyer12
1Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, Wien, 1190, Austria
2Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK–IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 82467, Germany
3Department of Environmental Sciences, Forest Ecology, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zürich, CH-8092, Switzerland
4Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Management and Production of Renewable Resources, Latokartanonkaari 9, Helsinki, 00790, Finland
5DISAFA, University of Torino, Largo Braccini 2, Grugliasco (TO), 10095, Italy
6Institute of Botany, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Zámek 1, Průhonice, CZ-252 43, Czech Republic
7Dipartimento di Agraria, University of Naples Federico II, via Università 100, Portici, 80055, Napoli, Italy
8Forest Research, Forestry Commission, Northern Research Station, Roslin, EH25 9SY, UK
9Department of Forest Ecology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Kamýcká 129, Praha 6 – Suchdol, CZ-165 21, Czech Republic
10Department of Agri-Environmental and Territorial Sciences, University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, via Amendola 165/A, Bari, 70126, Italy
11Department of Forest Management and Geodesy, Technical University in Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 24, Zvolen, 96053, Slovakia
12Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, D-14412, Germany

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Turner, M. G. Disturbance and landscape dynamics in a changing world. Ecology 91, 2833–2849 (2010).

Frelich, L. E. Forest Dynamics and Disturbance Regimes: Studies from Temperate Evergreen–Deciduous Forests (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2002).

White, P. S. & Pickett, S. T. A. in The Ecology of Natural Disturbance and Patch Dynamics (eds Pickett, S. T. A. & White, P. S.) 3–13 (Academic Press, 1985).

Turner, M. G., Tinker, D. B., Romme, W. H., Kashian, D. M. & Litton, C. M. Landscape patterns of sapling density, leaf area, and aboveground net primary production in postfire lodgepole pine forests, Yellowstone National Park (USA). Ecosystems 7, 751–775 (2004).

Beudert, B. et al. Bark beetles increase biodiversity while maintaining drinking water quality. Conserv. Lett. 8, 272–281 (2015).

Thom, D. & Seidl, R. Natural disturbance impacts on ecosystem services and biodiversity in temperate and boreal forests. Biol. Rev. 91, 760–781 (2016).

Holling, C. S. & Gunderson, L. H. in Panarchy. Understanding the transformations in human and natural systems (eds Gunderson, L. H. & Holling, C. S.) 25–62 (Island Press, 2002).

Thom, D., Rammer, W. & Seidl, R. Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions. Global Change Biol. 23, 269–282 (2017).

Seidl, R., Schelhaas, M.-J. & Lexer, M. J. Unraveling the drivers of intensifying forest disturbance regimes in Europe. Global Change Biol. 17, 2842–2852 (2011).

Westerling, A. L. Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B. 371, 20150178 (2016).

Pechony, O. & Shindell, D. T. Driving forces of global wildfires over the past millennium and the forthcoming century. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 19167–19170 (2010).

Paritsis, J. & Veblen, T. T. Dendroecological analysis of defoliator outbreaks on Nothofagus pumilio and their relation to climate variability in the Patagonian Andes. Global Change Biol. 17, 239–253 (2011).

Kautz, M., Meddens, A. J. H., Hall, R. J. & Arneth, A. Biotic disturbances in Northern Hemisphere forests — a synthesis of recent data, uncertainties and implications for forest monitoring and modelling. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 26, 533–552 (2017).

Millar, C. I. & Stephenson, N. L. Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance. Science 349, 823–826 (2015).

Allen, C. D., Breshears, D. D. & McDowell, N. G. On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene. Ecosphere 6, 1–55 (2015).

Reyer, C. P. O. et al. Forest resilience and tipping points at different spatio-temporal scales: approaches and challenges. J. Ecol. 103, 5–15 (2015).

Johnstone, J. F. et al. Changing disturbance regimes, climate warming and forest resilience. Front. Ecol. Environ. 14, 369–378 (2016).

Seidl, R., Spies, T. A., Peterson, D. L., Stephens, S. L. & Hicke, J. A. Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services. J. Appl. Ecol. 53, 120–129 (2016).

Lindner, M. et al. Climate change impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems. For. Ecol. Manage. 259, 698–709 (2010).

White, P. S. Pattern, process, and natural disturbance in vegetation. Bot. Rev. 45, 229–299 (1979).

Sousa, W. P. The role of disturbance in natural communities. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 15, 353–391 (1984).

Dale, V. H. et al. Climate change and forest disturbances. Bioscience 51, 723–734 (2001).

Overpeck, J. T., Rind, D. & Goldberg, R. Climate induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation. Nature 343, 51–53 (1990).

Williams, A. P. & Abatzoglou, J. T. Recent advances and remaining uncertainties in resolving past and future climate effects on global fire activity. Curr. Clim. Change Rep. 2, 1–14 (2016).

Raffa, K. F. et al. in Climate Change and Insect Pests (eds Björkman, C. & Niemelä, P.) 173–201 (CABI, 2015).

Sturrock, R. N. et al. Climate change and forest diseases. Plant Pathol. 60, 133–149 (2011).

Buma, B. Disturbance interactions: characterization, prediction, and the potential for cascading effects. Ecosphere 6, art70 (2015).

Foster, C. N., Sato, C. F., Lindenmayer, D. B. & Barton, P. S. Integrating theory into disturbance interaction experiments to better inform ecosystem management. Global Change Biol. 22, 1325–1335 (2016).

Jactel, H. et al. Drought effects on damage by forest insects and pathogens: a meta-analysis. Global Change Biol. 18, 267–276 (2012).

Peters, D. P. C. et al. Cross-system comparisons elucidate disturbance complexities and generalities. Ecosphere 2, art81 (2011).

Berrang-Ford, L., Pearce, T. & Ford, J. D. Systematic review approaches for climate change adaptation research. Reg. Environ. Change 15, 755–769 (2015).

Seidl, R. & Rammer, W. Climate change amplifies the interactions between wind and bark beetle disturbance in forest landscapes. Landscape Ecol. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-016-0396-4 (2017).

Temperli, C., Bugmann, H. & Elkin, C. Cross-scale interactions among bark beetles, climate change, and wind disturbances: a landscape modeling approach. Ecol. Monogr. 83, 383–402 (2013).

Flannigan, M. et al. Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century. For. Ecol. Manage. 294, 54–61 (2013).

Jönsson, A. M. et al. Modelling the potential impact of global warming on Ips typographus voltinism and reproductive diapause. Clim. Change 109, 695–718 (2011).

Hanewinkel, M., Cullmann, D. A., Schelhaas, M.-J., Nabuurs, G.-J. & Zimmermann, N. E. Climate change may cause severe loss in the economic value of European forest land. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 203–207 (2013).

Schröter, D. et al. Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science 310, 1333–1337 (2005).

Naudts, K. et al. Europe's forest management did not mitigate climate warming. Science 351, 597–601 (2016).

Running, S. W. Ecosystem disturbance, carbon, and climate. Science 321, 652–653 (2008).

Seidl, R., Schelhaas, M.-J., Rammer, W. & Verkerk, P. J. Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 806–810 (2014).

Clark, J. S., Bell, D. M., Kwit, M. C. & Zhu, K. Competition-interaction landscapes for the joint response of forests to climate change. Global Change Biol. 20, 1979–1991 (2014).

Bentz, B. J. et al. Climate change and bark beetles of the western United States and Canada: direct and indirect effects. Bioscience 60, 602–613 (2010).

Liu, Z. & Wimberly, M. C. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States. Sci. Total Environ. 542, 65–75 (2016).

R Development Core Team R. A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2016).

Gu, Z., Gu, L., Eils, R., Schlesner, M. & Brors, B. circlize implements and enhances circular visualization in R. Bioinformatics 30, 2811–2812 (2014).

Nakazawa, M. fmsb: Functions for Medical Statistics Book with some Demographic Data R package v.0.5.1 (2014); http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=fmsb .

Knutson, T. R. et al. Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat. Geosci. 3, 157–163 (2010).

Bender, M. A. et al. Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Science 327, 454–458 (2010).

Meddens, A. J. H., Hicke, J. A. & Ferguson, C. A. Spatiotemporal patterns of observed bark beetle-caused tree mortality in British Columbia and the western United States. Ecol. Appl. 22, 1876–1891 (2012).

IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

Solomon, S., Plattner, G.-K., Knutti, R. & Friedlingstein, P. Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 1704–1709 (2009).

Müller, M. M. et al. Predicting the activity of Heterobasidion parviporum on Norway spruce in warming climate from its respiration rate at different temperatures. For. Pathol. 44, 325–336 (2014).

Cruickshank, M. G., Jaquish, B. & Nemec, A. F. L. Resistance of half-sib interior Douglas-fir families to Armillaria ostoyae in British Columbia following artificial inoculation. Can. J. For. Res. 40, 155–166 (2010).

Panferov, O., Doering, C., Rauch, E., Sogachev, A. & Ahrends, B. Feedbacks of windthrow for Norway spruce and Scots pine stands under changing climate. Environ. Res. Lett. 4, 045019 (2009).

Cowden, M. M., Hart, J. L., Schweitzer, C. J. & Dey, D. C. Effects of intermediate-scale wind disturbance on composition, structure, and succession in Quercus stands: implications for natural disturbance-based silviculture. For. Ecol. Manage. 330, 240–251 (2014).

Seidl, R., Donato, D. C., Raffa, K. F. & Turner, M. G. Spatial variability in tree regeneration after wildfire delays and dampens future bark beetle outbreaks. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 13075–13080 (2016).

Stadelmann, G., Bugmann, H., Wermelinger, B. & Bigler, C. Spatial interactions between storm damage and subsequent infestations by the European spruce bark beetle. For. Ecol. Manage. 318, 167–174 (2014).

Paine, R. T., Tegner, M. J. & Johnson, E. A. Compounded perturbations yield ecological surprises. Ecosystems 1, 535–545 (1998).

Becknell, J. M. et al. Assessing interactions among changing climate, management, and disturbance in forests: a macrosystems approach. Bioscience 65, 263–274 (2015).

Temperli, C., Veblen, T. T., Hart, S. J., Kulakowski, D. & Tepley, A. J. Interactions among spruce beetle disturbance, climate change and forest dynamics captured by a forest landscape model. Ecosphere 6, art231 (2015).

Seidl, R. et al. Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review. Ecol. Modell. 222, 903–924 (2011).

Keane, R. E. et al. Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models. Ecol. Model. 309–310, 33–47 (2015).

Valenta, V., Moser, D., Kuttner, M., Peterseil, J. & Essl, F. A high-resolution map of emerald ash borer invasion risk for southern central Europe. Forests 6, 3075–3086 (2015).

Gandhi, K. J. K. & Herms, D. A. Direct and indirect effects of alien insect herbivores on ecological processes and interactions in forests of eastern North America. Biol. Invasions 12, 389–405 (2010).

Seidl, R. The shape of ecosystem management to come: anticipating risks and fostering resilience. Bioscience 64, 1159–1169 (2014).

Billmire, M., French, N. H. F., Loboda, T., Owen, R. C. & Tyner, M. Santa Ana winds and predictors of wildfire progression in southern California. Int. J. Wildland Fire 23, 1119–1129 (2014).

Pausas, J. G. & Ribeiro, E. The global fire-productivity relationship. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 22, 728–736 (2013).

Bowman, D. M., Murphy, B. P., Williamson, G. J. & Cochrane, M. A. Pyrogeographic models, feedbacks and the future of global fire regimes. Global Ecol. 32, 821–824 (2014).

Ryan, K. C. Dynamic interactions between forest structure and fire behavior in boreal ecosystems. Silva Fenn. 36, 13–39 (2002).

Cook, B. I., Smerdon, J. E., Seager, R. & Coats, S. Global warming and 21st century drying. Clim. Dyn. 43, 2607–2627 (2014).

Suarez, M. L. & Kitzberger, T. Recruitment patterns following a severe drought: long-term compositional shifts in Patagonian forests. Can. J. For. Res. 38, 3002–3010 (2008).

Harvey, B. J., Donato, D. C. & Turner . High and dry: postfire drought and large stand-replacing burn patches reduce postfire tree regeneration in subalpine forests. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 25, 655–669 (2016).

Donat, M. G., Leckebusch, G. C., Wild, S. & Ulbrich, U. Future changes in European winter storm losses and extreme wind speeds inferred from GCM and RCM multi-model simulations. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 11, 1351–1370 (2011).

Peltola, H. et al. Impacts of climate change on timber production and regional risks of wind-induced damage to forests in Finland. For. Ecol. Manage. 260, 833–845 (2010).

Usbeck, T. et al. Increasing storm damage to forests in Switzerland from 1858 to 2007. Agric. For. Meteorol. 150, 47–55 (2010).

Moore, J. R. & Watt, M. S. Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests. Global Change Biol. Biol. 21, 3021–3035 (2015).

Whitney, R. D., Fleming, R. L., Zhou, K. & Mossa, D. S. Relationship of root rot to black spruce windfall and mortality following strip clear-cutting. Can. J. For. Res. 32, 283–294 (2002).

Teich, M., Marty, C., Gollut, C., Grêt-Regamey, A. & Bebi, P. Snow and weather conditions associated with avalanche releases in forests: rare situations with decreasing trends during the last 41years. Cold Regions Sci. Technol. 83, 77–88 (2012).

Gregow, H., Peltola, H., Laapas, M., Saku, S. & Venäläinen, A. Combined occurrence of wind, snow loading and soil frost with implications for risks to forestry in Finland under the current and changing climatic conditions. Silva Fenn. 45, 35–54 (2011).

Cheng, C. S., Auld, H., Li, G., Klaassen, J. & Li, Q. Possible impacts of climate change on freezing rain in south-central Canada using downscaled future climate scenarios. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 7, 71–87 (2007).

Kilpeläinen, A. et al. Impacts of climate change on the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland. Clim. Change 99, 193–209 (2010).

Bebi, P., Kulakowski, D. & Rixen, C. Snow avalanche disturbances in forest ecosystems—state of research and implications for management. For. Ecol. Manage. 257, 1883–1892 (2009).

Maroschek, M., Rammer, W. & Lexer, M. J. Using a novel assessment framework to evaluate protective functions and timber production in Austrian mountain forests under climate change. Reg. Environ. Change 15, 1543–1555 (2015).

Lemoine, N. P., Burkepile, D. E. & Parker, J. D. Variable effects of temperature on insect herbivory. PeerJ 2, e376 (2014).

Battisti, A. et al. Expansion of geographic range in the pine processionary moth caused by increased winter temperatures. Ecol. Appl. 15, 2084–2096 (2005).

Evangelista, P. H., Kumar, S., Stohlgren, T. J. & Young, N. E. Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US. For. Ecol. Manage. 262, 307–316 (2011).

Schwartzberg, E. G. et al. Simulated climate warming alters phenological synchrony between an outbreak insect herbivore and host trees. Oecologia 175, 1041–1049 (2014).

Gaylord, M. L. et al. Drought predisposes piñon-juniper woodlands to insect attacks and mortality. New Phytol. 198, 567–578 (2013).

Aguayo, J., Elegbede, F., Husson, C., Saintonge, F.-X. & Marçais, B. Modeling climate impact on an emerging disease, the Phytophthora alni-induced alder decline. Global Change Biol. 20, 3209–3221 (2014).

Vacher, C., Vile, D., Helion, E., Piou, D. & Desprez-Loustau, M.-L. Distribution of parasitic fungal species richness: influence of climate versus host species diversity. Divers. Distrib. 14, 786–798 (2008).

Karnosky, D. F. et al. Interacting elevated CO2 and tropospheric O3 predisposes aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) to infection by rust (Melampsora medusae f. sp. tremuloidae). Global Change Biol. 8, 329–338 (2002).

Garnas, J. R., Houston, D. R., Ayres, M. P. & Evans, C. Disease ontogeny overshadows effects of climate and species interactions on population dynamics in a nonnative forest disease complex. Ecography 35, 412–421 (2012).

Tsui, C. K. M. et al. Population structure and migration pattern of a conifer pathogen, Grosmannia clavigera, as influenced by its symbiont, the mountain pine beetle. Mol. Ecol. 21, 71–86 (2012).