Foresighting addiction and lifestyles in Europe 2030+
Tóm tắt
The paper links to the EU funded project titled «Addictions and lifestyles in contemporary Europe – reframing addictions project», acronym: ALICE RAP. The project invited 17 European and three international drug disorder experts to provide an initial vision and a reframing as to how scientific, technological and social advancement may impact on our understanding of addictions and lifestyles over the next 20 years («Vision 2030+»). The project design applied a combined approach using an in-situ substantial idea generation blended with well-established foresight tools. The data reported consists of qualitative narratives and quantitative assessments carried out by the experts in a 2 day electronic scenario workshop in Barcelona during May 2011. This research paper describes and analyses what these domain experts envisage as the premises, drivers, uncertainties and the most prominent images of this field in a prospective Europe. Four mini-scenarios were designed to raise awareness that the future could go in different (possible, plausible, preferable) directions implying quite diverse individual and societal impacts. A main scenario describing images of the addiction and lifestyle scene in Europe 2030+ is offered, serving as a fourfold ideal type. By using a backcasting procedure the expert group launched an optimistic vision on the virtual future of European addictions and lifestyles, addressing distinctive collective values, long term planning and restitutive solutions for reframing the present drug disorder policy regime.
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