Foresight in science and technology

Freeman C, 1988, Technical Change and Economic Theory

Hicks D, 1988, Research Policy

Clinton W.J, 1994, Science in the National Interest

Clinton & Gore, op. cit., Ref. 3.

10.1007/BF02017247

10.1016/0048-7333(84)90003-9

Irvine J, 1984, Science and Technology Policy in the 1990 and Beyond, 67

Ziman J, 1987, Science in a Steady State

Ziman J, 1994, Prometheus Bound, 10.1017/CBO9780511585067

Irvine, J and Martin, B.R. 1984.Foresight in Science: Picking the Winners, 4London: Pinter. Strategic research' is defined ;as "hasic rese;lrch carried out with the expectation that it will produce

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Elzinga A, 1983, Foresight as Anticipatory Intelligence

Irvine J, 1989, Research Foresyht: Creating the Future

Irvine & Martin, op. cit., Ref. 9.

Martin B.R, 1989, Research Foresght: Priong-Setting in Science

See Martin, op. cit, Ref. 10 for details

Martin B.R, 1994, Meeting of Experts on Government foresight Exercises

Although the survey covered the next 30 years, most advances were predicted to occur within 10-20 years.

Kucvahara T, 1994, The Outline of Technology Forecast Survey in Japan, mimeo

Table 1 is taken from National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, The Fifth Technology Forecast Survey, Report 25 (Tokyo, NISTEP, 1992), pp. 262-263.

Ibid.

Kuwahara, op. cit, Ref. 19.

Kucvahara, T. 1992.The Technology; Forecast Sureey, 262–263. Tokyo: National Institute of Science and Technology Polics. Table 1 is taker, Report 25, NISTER

Ibid

Experts classified the likely realization time for a particular advance under one of six 5-year periods. If the results were purely random, then one might expect one-sixth (17%) of the predictions to be correct.

Kuwahara, op. cit., Ref. 23.

Martin & Irvine, op. cit., Ref. 15, 154 155

Irvine & Martin, op. cit., Ref. 9, p. 144. To this original list, one might now add two more 'Cs', i.e. coproduction and co-ownership of the results (see discussion of Dutch case studies).

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Westheimer F.H, 1965, Chemisty Opportunities and Needs

Pimentel G.C, 1985, Opportunities in Chemisty

Brinkman W.F, 1986, Phsics Through the 1990s

Pimentel, op. cit, Ref. 31.

One exception to this is the report on astronomy (National Research Council, The Decade of Discovery in Astronomy and Astrophysics (Washington, DC, National Academy Press, 1991), which was widely praised in Washington for its sense of fiscal responsibility.

Again, the exception here is the astronomy report which contained a list of priority projects.

Department of Defense, Critical Technologies Plan, 1990, Report to the Committee on Armed Services, US Congress US Government Printing Office Washington, DC 1990

Department of Defense, Critical Technologies Plan, 1991, Report to the Committee on Armed Services, US Congress US Government Printing Office Washington, DC 1991

Department of Commerce, Emerging Technologies: A Survey of Technical and Economic Opportunities US Department of Commerce Washington, DC 1990

National Critical Technologies Panel, Report of the National Critical Technologies Panel US Department of Commerce Washington, DC 1991

Aerospace Industries Association, Key Technologies for the 1990s: An Overview Aerospace Industries Association Washington, DC 1990

Computer Systems Policy Project, Perspectives: Success Factors in Critical Technologies Computer Systems Association Washington, DC 1990

Council on Competitiveness, Gaining New Ground: Technology Priorities for America's Future Council on Competitiveness Washington, DC 1990

Mogee M.E, 1991, Manufacturing Forum Discussion Paper 3

Ibid 37

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Kodama F, 1992, Harvard Business Review, 40, 70

10.1111/j.1467-9310.1994.tb00868.x

Ibid

Besides the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Ministry of Education and Science has also been engaged in foresight. In 1992, it set up the Foresight Steering Committee which has been involved in over half a dozen foresight exercises on such subjects as micro-electronics, agriculture and energy.

van Dijk, op. cit, Ref. 45.

Martin & Irvine, op. cit., Ref. 15.

10.1038/357529d0

Uhlhorn, C. 1992.Setting Priorities for German Investment in Costly Fields of Science During the 1990s: Lessons from the BMFT Committee on Basic Science, mimes, 10–11. Bonn: BMFT.

Abbott, op. cit., Ref. 52.

Grupp H, 1994, Technology Analsis & Strategic Management, 6, 371

Quevreux A, 1994, Meeting Experts on Govermment Foresight Exercises

Grupp H, 1994, Meeting of'Experts on Government Foresight Exercises

Ibid

Patermann C, 1994, Trends in Research and Technology in the Next century-New Directions of German R&D Policies mimeo

Company experts who discovered in the second Delphi round that their first predictions were out of line with the majority occasionally hac some awkward explaining to do to their superiors

Grupp, op. cit., Ref. 55

See Martin & Irvine, op. cit., Ref. 15, Chapter 7.

CSIRO, CSIRO Priority Determination 1990-Methodology and Results Overview (Canberra, CSIRO 1991), p. 1.

Ibid. 2

Ibid. 5 6

Ibid 10

Ibid 14

Ibid 11 12

Ibid. 16

Ibid. 13

See Cooperative Research Centres Program Compendium (Canberra, Australian Government Publishing Service, 1992), 2

CSIRO, CSIRO Research Priorities 1994-95 to 1996-97 (Canberra, CSIRO, 1993), 1 5

Ibid 5 8

Ibid 8 14

See Industry Commission, Research and Development, Draft Report, Vol. 1 (Canberra, Industry Commission, 1994), p. B93. Besides CSIRO, other organizations in Australia have begun to conduct foresight. In particular, the Australian Science and Technology Council launched a major foresight exercise in 1994, entitled 'Matching science and technology to future needs'. This was completed in the latter part of 1995. See ASTEC, Matching Science and Technology to Future Meeds: An Introduction (Canberra, Australian Science and Technology Council, 1994).

The Fund represents 60% of the New Zealand Government's research budget, the remainder going to government departments, universities, the Health Research Council and private sector agencies. See MORST, Future Directions and Priorities for Mew Zealand's Public Good Science (Te Manatu Putaiao, MORST, 1992), p. i; M. Doig, Establishing Science Priorities in Mew Zealand (Te Manatu Putaiao, MORST, 1993), pp. 4-5.

MORST, op. cit., Ref. 76, p. hi (original emphasis).

'socio-economic benefit' was broken down into the likely magnitude of the output, growth potential, urgency and the extent to which research can contribute. 'Ability to capture benefits' was split into ability to retain knowledge in New Zealand, communication networks between researchers and users, competitiveness and the technological culture of users. The other two criteria were divided into research opportunity, time-frame, probability of scientific progress, quality and efficiency of New Zealand research, level of skills and available research facilities (MORST, op. cit., Ref. 76, p. ii).

Doig, op. cit, Ref. 76, 5 9

Ibid. 10 12

MORST, Investing in Science for Our Future (Te Manatu Putaiao, MORST, 1992), 40

Ibid. 41

Martin, op. cit., Ref. 10.

OST, op. cit., Ref. 3.

The evidence for this comes from the author's participation in the steering group for the programme.

Taken from Martin & Irvine, op. cit., Ref. 15, 28

Sections 4 and 5 draw on the analysis in Martin & Irvine, op. cit., Ref. 15, especially Chapters 2 and 11.

Irvine & Martin, op. cit., Ref. 9.

Kodama, op. cit., Ref. 46.

Taken from Martin & Irvine, op. cit., Ref. 15, 30

Coates J.F, 1985, Futures Research Quarterly, 1, 29

Ibid. 45

Martin & Irvine, op. cit., Ref. 15.

OSTP, US Technology Policy (Washington, DC, Office of Science and Technology Policy, 1990).

Cf. Coates, op. cit., Ref. 91, 31 32

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Irvine & Martin, op. cit, Ref. 13.

Martin, op. cit., Ref. 10.

Martin, op. cit., Ref. 17.