Forecasting the German forest products trade: A vector error correction model

Afxentiou, 1991, Exports and GNP causality in the industrial countries: 1950–1985, Kyklos, 44, 167, 10.1111/j.1467-6435.1991.tb02095.x Ahmad, 1995 Ahmad, 2001, Causality between exports and economic growth: what do the econometric Studies tell us?, Pac. Econ. Rev., 6, 147, 10.1111/1468-0106.00123 Alavalapati, 1997, A cointegration analysis of Canadian wood pulp prices, Am. J. Agric. Econ., 73, 975, 10.2307/1244437 Arize, 1995, The effects of exchange-rate volatility on US exports: an empirical investigation, South. Econ. J., 10.2307/1061373 Arize, 1998, The long-run relationship between import flows and real exchange rate volatility: the experience of eight European economies, Int. Rev. Econ. Financ.: IREF, 7, 417, 10.1016/S1059-0560(98)90030-2 Awokuse, 2003, Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?, Can. J. Econ., 36, 126, 10.1111/1540-5982.00006 Awokuse, 2003, Vector autoregressions, policy analysis, and directed acyclic graphs: an application to the US economy, J. Appl. Econ., 6, 1, 10.1080/15140326.2003.12040583 Awokuse, 2005, Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs, Appl. Econ. Lett., 12, 849, 10.1080/13504850500358801 Baak, 2007, Exchange rate volatility and exports from East Asian countries to Japan and the USA, Appl. Econ., 39, 947, 10.1080/00036840500474231 Baek, 2007, The J-curve effect and the US-Canada forest products trade, J. Forest Econ., 13, 245, 10.1016/j.jfe.2006.11.001 Baek, 2012, The long-run determinants of US lumber imported from Canada revisited, Forest Policy Econ., 14, 69, 10.1016/j.forpol.2011.07.007 Balassa, 1978, Exports and economic growth: further evidence, J. Dev. Econ., 5, 181, 10.1016/0304-3878(78)90006-8 Bolkesjo, 2006, Short- and long-run exchange rate effects on forest product trade: evidence from panel data, J. Forest Econ., 11, 205, 10.1016/j.jfe.2005.09.002 Box, 1970 Breusch, 1978, Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models, Aust. Econ. Pap., 17, 334, 10.1111/j.1467-8454.1978.tb00635.x Buongiorno, 1979, Monthly model of the United-States demand for softwood lumber imports, Forest Sci., 25, 641, 10.1093/forestscience/25.4.641 Buongiorno, 1988, Exchange-rates, Canadian lumber imports, and United-States prices – a time-series analysis, Can. J. Forest Res., 18, 1587, 10.1139/x88-242 Buongiorno, 1996, Forest sector modeling: a synthesis of econometrics, mathematical programming, and system dynamics methods, Int. J. Forecast., 12, 329, 10.1016/0169-2070(96)00668-1 Chambers, 1981, Effects of exchange rate changes on U. S. agriculture: a dynamic analysis, Am. J. Agric. Econ., 63, 32, 10.2307/1239809 Dutt, 1996, The export growth-economic growth nexus: a causality analysis, J. Dev. Areas, 30, 167 Edgerton, 1999, Testing autocorrelation in a system perspective testing autocorrelation, Econ. Rev., 18, 343, 10.1080/07474939908800351 Giles, 2000, Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1, J. Int. Trade Econ. Dev., 9, 261, 10.1080/09638190050086177 Godfrey, 1978, Testing for higher order serial correlation in regression equations when the regressors include lagged dependent variables, Econometrica, 46, 1303, 10.2307/1913830 Granger, 1974, Spurious regressions in econometrics, J. Econ., 2, 111, 10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7 Granger, 1981, Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification, J. Econ., 16, 121, 10.1016/0304-4076(81)90079-8 Hannan, 1970 Hänninen, 2004, Econometric models in forest sector forecasting, J. Forest Econ., 10, 57, 10.1016/j.jfe.2004.07.002 Hetemäki, 2004, Short-term forecasting models for the Finnish forest sector: lumber exports and sawlog demand, Forest Sci., 50, 467 Hetemäki, 2005, Forecasting Germany's printing and writing paper imports, Forest Sci., 51, 483 Hietala, 2013, Finnish and Swedish sawnwood exports to the UK market in the European monetary union regime, Forest Sci., 59, 379, 10.5849/forsci.10-122 Hseu, 1993, Price elasticities of substitution between species in the demand of U.S. softwood lumber imports from Canada, Can. J. Forest Res., 23, 591, 10.1139/x93-078 Jarque, 1987, A test for normality of observations and regression residuals, Int. Stat. Rev., 55, 163, 10.2307/1403192 Jennings, 1991, The Canadian lumber industry and the macroeconomy: a vector autoregressive analysis, Can. J. Forest Res., 21, 288, 10.1139/x91-036 Johansen, 1988, Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors, J. Econ. Dyn. Control, 12, 231, 10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3 Johansen, 1990, Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration: with applications to the demand for money, Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat., 52, 169, 10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x Kim, 2003, Impacts of the currency value change on the forest products import quantities in Korea, Forest Policy Econ., 5, 317, 10.1016/S1389-9341(02)00065-5 Kroner, 1993, The impact of exchange-rate volatility in international trade-reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model, J. Int. Money Financ., 12, 298, 10.1016/0261-5606(93)90016-5 Latta, 2013, A review of recent developments and applications of partial equilibrium models of the forest sector, J. Forest Econ.: JFE, 19, 350, 10.1016/j.jfe.2013.06.006 Limaei, 2011, Wood import and export and its relation to major macroeconomics variables in Iran, Forest Policy Econ., 13, 303, 10.1016/j.forpol.2011.03.001 Lütkepohl, 2006 Marin, 1992, Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for industrialized countries?, Rev. Econ. Stat., 74, 678, 10.2307/2109382 Nagubadi, 2009, Productivity and trade during the softwood lumber dispute, Int. Trade J., 23, 301, 10.1080/08853900903012278 Nagubadi, 2013, US Imports for Canadian softwood lumber in the context of trade dispute: a cointegration approach, Forest Sci., 59, 517, 10.5849/forsci.12-013 Nanang, 2010, Analysis of export demand for Ghana's timber products: a multivariate co-integration approach, J. Forest Econ., 16, 47, 10.1016/j.jfe.2009.06.001 Pfaff, 2006 Pfaff, 2008, VAR, SVAR and SVEC models: implementation within R package vars, J. Stat. Softw., 27, 1, 10.18637/jss.v027.i04 Pindyck, 1990, The excess co-movement of commodity prices, Econ. J., 100, 1173, 10.2307/2233966 R Core Team, 2016 Schuster, 1906 Sharma, 1991, Exports and economic growth in industrialized countries, Appl. Econ., 23, 697, 10.1080/00036849108841025 Shumway, 2006 Song, 2011, U.S. softwood lumber demand and supply estimation using cointegration in dynamic equations, J. Forest Econ., 17, 19, 10.1016/j.jfe.2010.07.002 Sun, 2003, The effects of exchange rate volatility on U.S. forest commodities exports, Forest Sci., 49, 807 Toda, 1995, Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes, J. Econ., 66, 225, 10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8 Toppinen, 2010, Forest sector modelling in Europe – the state of the art and future research directions, Forest Policy Econ., 12, 2, 10.1016/j.forpol.2009.09.017 Tsay, 2000, Time series and forecasting: brief history and future research, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 95, 638, 10.1080/01621459.2000.10474241 Wisdom, 2003, The effect of exchange rates on southern pine exports, Forest Prod. J., 53, 19 Zang, 2012, Exports, imports and economic growth in South Korea and Japan: a tale of two economies, Appl. Econ., 44, 361, 10.1080/00036846.2010.508722