Forecasting and Criminal Justice Policy and Practice

Anderson, D. C. (1995). Crime and the politics of hysteria. Times Books. Angwin, J., Larson, J., Mattu, S., & Kirchner, L. (2016). Machine bias: There’s software used across the country to predict future criminals. And it’s biased against blacks. ProPublica. Retrieved from https://www.propublica.org/article/machine-bias-risk-assessments-in-criminal-sentencing. Accessed 20 June 2022 Austin, J., & Coventry, G. (2014). A critical analysis of Justice Reinvestment in the United States and Australia. Victims & Offenders, 9, 126–140. Austin, J., Naro, W., & Fabelo, T. (2007). Public Safety, Public Spending. Pew Charitable Trusts. Barnett, A. (1987). Prison Populations: A Projection Model. Operations Research, 35(1), 18–34. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.35.1.18 Berk, R. A. (2006). An introduction to ensemble methods for data analysis. Sociological Methods & Research, 34(3), 263–295. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124105283119 Berk, R. A. (2008). Forecasting methods in crime and justice. Annual Review of Law and Social Science, 4, 219–238. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.lawsocsci.3.081806.112812 Berk, R. A. (2010). What You Can and Can’t Properly Do with Regression. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 26(4), 481–487. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-010-9116-4 Berk, R. A. (2011). Asymmetric Loss Functions for Forecasting in Criminal Justice Settings. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 27(1), 107–123. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-010-9098-2 Berk, R. A. (2021). Artificial intelligence, predictive policing, and risk assessment for law enforcement. Annual Review of Criminology, 4, 209–237. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-criminol-051520-012342 Berk, R. A., & Bleich, J. (2013). Statistical Procedures for Forecasting Criminal Behavior: A Comparative Assessment. Criminology & Public Policy, 12(3), 513–544. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12047 Berk, R. A., Heidari, H., Jabbari, S., Kearns, M., & Roth, A. (2021). Fairness in Criminal Justice Risk Assessments: The State of the Art. Sociological Methods & Research, 50(1), 3–44. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124118782533 Berk, R. A., Kriegler, B., & Baek, J. H. (2006). Forecasting dangerous inmate misconduct: An application of ensemble statistical procedures. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 22(2), 131–145. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-006-9005-z Berk, R. A., Sherman, L., Barnes, G., Kurtz, E., & Ahlman, L. (2009). Forecasting murder within a population of probationers and parolees: A high stakes application of statistical learning. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series a-Statistics in Society, 172, 191–211. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00556.x Berk, R. A., & Sorenson, S. B. (2020). Algorithmic approach to forecasting rare violent events: An illustration based in intimate partner violence perpetration. Criminology & Public Policy, 19(1), 213–233. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12476 Berk, R. A., Sorenson, S. B., & Barnes, G. (2016). Forecasting domestic violence: A machine learning approach to help inform arraignment decisions. Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, 13(1), 94–115. Bhuiyan, J. (2021). LAPD ended predictive policing programs amid public outcry. A new effort shares many of their flaws. The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/07/lapd-predictive-policing-surveillance-reform. Accessed 20 June 2022 Blomberg, T., Bales, W., Mann, K., Meldrum, R., & Nedelec, J. (2010). Broward County Jail Population: Trends and Forecast. Prepared for the Broward Sheriff’s Office. Department of Community Control Center for Criminology and Public Policy Research College of Criminology and Criminal Justice Florida State University. Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., & Miller, H. (1980). Demographically Disaggregated Projections of Prison Populations. Journal of Criminal Justice, 8, 1–25. Boba, R. (2001). Introductory guide to crime analysis and mapping. Community Oriented Policing Services. Bower, M. (2015). Forecasting future inmate population. Correctional News: Design, Construction and Operations, 18, 38–39. Brayne, S. (2018). The criminal law and law enforcement implications of big data. Annual Review of Law and Social Science, 14, 293–308. Brennan Center for Justice. (2017). Brennan Center for Justice v. New York Police Department. Retrieved from https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/court-cases/brennan-center-justice-v-new-york-police-department. Accessed 20 June 2022 Brennan, T., Dieterich, W., & Ehret, B. (2009). Evaluating the predictive validity of the compas risk and needs assessment system. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 36, 21–39. Browning, M., & Arrigo, B. (2021). Stop and risk: Policing, data, and the digital age of discrimination. American Journal of Criminal Justice, 46(2), 298–316. Buehler, E. D. (2021). Justice Expenditures and Employment in the United States. Bureau of Justice Statistics. Burgess, E. W. (1928). Factors determining success or failure on parole. The workings of the indeterminate sentence law and the parole system in Illinois, 221–234. Buskey, B. & Woods, A. (2018). Making sense of pretrial risk assessments. The Champion, National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers (pp. 18–33). Buturac, G. (2022). Measurement of economic forecast accuracy: A systematic overview of the empirical literature. Risk and Financial Management, 15, 1–28. California Department of Correction and Rehabilitation (CRDC). (2021). Fall 2020 Population Projections. Division of Correctional Policy Research and Internal Oversight, Office of Research. https://cdcr.ca.gov/research/PULA. Accessed 20 June 2022 Cameron, D. (2022). Justice Department admits: We don't even know how many predictive policing tools we've funded. Gizmodo. Retrieved from https://gizmodo.com/justice-department-kept-few-records-on-predictive-polic-1848660323. Accessed 20 June 2022 Campbell, S. D. & Sharpe, S. A. (2007). Anchoring bias in consensus forecasts and its effect on market prices. Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Federal Reserve Board. Federal Reserve Board. Capotosto, J. (2017). Data opportunities and risks: The dynamic of public, personal, and commercial interest. Journal of Community Safety & Well-Being., 2(1), 18–21. Carnot, N., Koen, V., Tissot, B. (2011). Policymaking and Forecasts. In Economic Forecasting and Policy (pp. 309–353). Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230306448_9 Chase, C. W. (2013). Demand-Driven Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Forecasting (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons Inc. Clemen, R. T. (1989). Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. International Journal of Forecasting., 5(4), 559–583. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(89)90012-5 Collins, D. (2018). Police departments sued over predictive polcing programs. Retrieved from https://www.police1.com/legal/articles/police-departments-sued-over-predictive-policing-programs-oEOyziTEEgyMrLNv/. Accessed 20 June 2022 Congressional Budget Office. (2018). How CBO Prepares Baseline Budget Projections. Congressional Budget Office. Cooper, A. (2022). Justice Assistance Grant (JAG) Program, 2021. US Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics. Diebold, F. X., & Mariano, R. S. (1995). Comparing Predictive Accuracy. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 253–265. Donohue, J. J., III., & Levitt, S. D. (2001). The impact of race on policing and arrests. The Journal of Law & Economics, 44(2), 367–394. https://doi.org/10.1086/322810 Farrington, D. P. (1987). Predicting individual crime rates. Crime and Justice, 9, 53–101. Ferguson, A. G. (2017). The rise of big data policing. New York University Press. Ferguson, A. G. (2016). Predictive Prosecution. Wake Forest Law Review, 51, 705–744. Fitzpatrick, D. J., Gorr, W. L., & Neill, D. B. (2019). Keeping Score: Predictive Analytics in Policing. In J. Petersilia & R. J. Sampson (Eds.), Annual Review of Criminology, Vol 2 (Vol. 2, pp. 473–491). Annual Reviews. Foody, K. (2020). Chicago police end effort to predict gun offenders, victims. Associated Press. Retrieved from https://apnews.com/article/41f75b783d796b80815609e737211cc6. Accessed 20 June 2022 Friend, Z. (2013). Predictive Policing: Using Technology to Reduce Crime. FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, Federal Bureau of Investigation. https://leb.fbi.gov/articles/featured-articles/predictive-policing-using-technology-to-reduce-crime. Accessed 20 June 2022 Government Accountability Office (GAO). (1997). Federal and State Prisons: Inmate Populations, Costs, and Projection Models. GAO. GAO. (2012). Growing Inmate Crowding Negative Affects Inmates, Staff, and Infrastructure. GAO. Garrison, A. H. (2009). The Influence of Research on Criminal Justice Policymaking. Professional Issues in Criminal Justice, 4, 9–21. Harcourt, B. E. (2007). Against prediction: Profiling, policing, and punishment in an actuarial age. University of Chicago Press. Harrison, L. (2022). Adult and Juvenile Population Forecasts Pursuant to 24.33.5–503 (m), C.R.S. Colorado Division of Criminal Justice. Henderson, M. T., Wolfers, J., & Zitzewitz, E. (2010). Predicting crime. Arizona Law Review, 52, 15. Hunt, P., Hollywood, J. S., & Saunders, J. M. (2014). Evaluation of the Shreveport predictive policing experiment. Rand Corporation Santa Monica. Hyun, P. (2022). [Response letter to U.S. Senators regarding DOJ funding of predictive policing algorithms]. Office of the Assistant Attorney General, Office of Justice Programs, Department of Justice. Received via email request. Institute for Justice. (2022). Florida parents partner with IJ to shut down dystopian “predictive policing” program. Retrieved from https://ij.org/case/pasco-predictive-policing/. Accessed 20 June 2022 Ismaili, K. (2006). Contextualizing the criminal justice policymaking process, 2006. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 17, 255–269. Johnson, L. M., Elam, P., Lebold, S. M., & Burroughs, R. (2018). Use of Research Evidence by Criminal Justice Professionals. Justice Policy Journal, 16, 1–21. Johnston, R. (2020). Oakland, Calif., set to ban predictive policing, biometric surveillance tools. StateScoop. Retrieved from https://statescoop.com/oakland-calif-set-to-ban-predictive-policing-biometric-surveillance-tools/. Accessed 20 June 2022 Klay, W. E., & Vonasek, J. A. (2008). Consensus forecasting for budgeting in theory and practice. In J. Sun & T. D. Lynch (Eds.), Government budget forecasting: Theory and practice (pp. 379–392). CRC Press. Kutnowski, M. (2017). The ethical dangers and merits of predictive policing. Journal of Community Safety & Well-Being., 2(1), 13–17. Lally, N. (2021). It makes almost no difference which algorithm you use: On the modularity of predictive policing. Urban Geography, 43(9), 1–19. Lau, T. (2020). Predictive policing explained. Retrieved from https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/predictive-policing-explained. Accessed 20 June 2022 Lee, W., Musa, J., & Pinard, M. (2021). Garbage in, gospel out: How data-driven policing technologies entrench historic racism and ‘tech-wash’ bias in the criminal legal system. Retrieved from Washington, DC: https://www.nacdl.org/datadrivenpolicing. Accessed 20 June 2022 Legislative Budget Board, State of Texas. (2021). Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population Projections: Fiscal Years 2021 to 2026. Submitted to the 87th Texas Legislature. Legislative Budget Board. Lum, K., & Isaac, W. (2016). To predict and serve? Significance, 13(5), 14–19. Maltz, M. D. (1984). Recidivism. Academic Press Inc. Maltz, M. D., & Chaiken, J. M. (2009). Forecasting California’s prison population. Submitted to the California Department of Corrections & Rehabilitation, Offender Information Services Branch. Masse, T., O'Neil, S., & Rollins, J. (2007). The Department of Homeland Security's risk assessment methodology: Evolution, issues, and options for Congress. McDonald, B. D., III., Decker, J. W., & Hunt, M. J. (2019). Forecasting for Prisons and Jails. In D. Williams & T. Calabrese (Eds.), The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting, Palgrave Studies in Public Debt, Spending, and Revenue (pp. 345–359). Palgrave-Macmillan. McGrory, K., & Bedi, N. (2020). Pasco’s sheriff created a futuristic program to stop crime before it happens. It monitors and harasses families across the county. Retrieved from https://projects.tampabay.com/projects/2020/investigations/police-pasco-sheriff-targeted/intelligence-led-policing/. Accessed 20 June 2022 McNees, S. K. (1992). How large are economic forecast errors (July/August, pp. 25–42)? New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Mears, D. (2002). Forecasting juvenile correctional populations in texas. The Urban Institute. Mikesell, J. L., & Ross, J. M. (2014). State revenue forecasts and political acceptance: The value of concensus forecasting in the budget process. Public Administration Review, 72, 188–203. Mohler, G. O., Short, M. B., Brantingham, P. J., Schoenberg, F. P., & Tita, G. E. (2011). Self-exciting point process modeling of crime. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 106(493), 100–108. Mohler, G. O., Short, M. B., Malinowski, S., Johnson, M., Tita, G. E., Bertozzi, A. L., & Brantingham, P. J. (2015). Randomized controlled field trials of predictive policing. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 110(512), 1399–1411. Movement Alliance Project. (n.d.) https://pretrialrisk.com/national-landscape/how-many-jurisdictions-use-each-tool/. Accessed 20 June 2022 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM). (2018). Proactive Policing: Effects on Crime and Communities. The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/24928. National Research Council. (2008). Understanding crime trends: Workshop report. The National Academies Press. NASEM. (2016). Modernizing Crime Statistics—Report 1: Defining and Classifying Crime. The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/23492 North Carolina Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission. (2021). Prison Population Projections: Fiscal Year 2021 to Fiscal Year 2030. North Carolina Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission. O’Neill, C., & Koushmaro, L. (2020). The 2021–22 Budget: The Correctional Population Outlook. The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) (a nonpartisan office that provides fiscal and policy information and advice to the Legislature). OECD (2014). OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis: A postmortem. OECD Economics Department, Policy Note No. 23. Pagan, A. R., & Robertson, J. (2004). Forecasting for policy. In M. P. Clements & D. F. Hendry (Eds.), A companion to economic forecasting (pp. 152–178). Blackwell Publishing. Pasco County Sheriff’s Office. (2018). Intelligence-led policing manual. Pasco County, FL Retrieved from https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/7047184/ILP-Manual-05-10-2018-Redacted.pdf. Accessed 20 June 2022 Pepper, J. V. (2008). Forecasting crime: A city-level analysis. In National Research Council 2008. Understanding Crime Trends: Workshop Report. The National Academies Press, pp. 177–215. https://doi.org/10.17226/12472. Perry, W. L., McInnis, B., Price, C. C., Smith, S., & Hollywood, J.S. (2014). Predictive policing: The role of crime forecasting in law enforcement operations. The RAND Corporation. RR-233-NIJ. Available at http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR233.html. Accessed 20 June 2022 Police Executive Research Forum (PERF). (2014). Future Trends in Policing. Office of Community Oriented Policing Services. Ratcliffe, J. H., Taylor, R. B., Askey, A. P., Thomas, K., Grasso, J., Bethel, K. J., . . . Koehnlein, J. (2021). The Philadelphia predictive policing experiment. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 17(1), 15-41.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-019-09400-2. Rhodes, W., Gaes, G., Rich, T., Edgerton, J., Kling, R. & Luallen, J. (2015). Evaluation of the Justice Reinvestment Initiative in Five States Using National Corrections Reporting Program Data. Submitted to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, Washington. Abt Associates. Richardson, R., Schultz, J. M., & Crawford, K. (2019). Dirty data, bad predictions: How civil rights violations impact police data, predictive policing systems, and justice. NYUL Rev Online, 94, 15. Sabol, W. J., & Baumann, M. L. (2020). Justice Reinvestment: Vision and Practice. Annual Review of Criminology, 3, 317–339. Sabol, W. J., Pollack, A., & Spence, M. (1998). Prison Population Projection and Forecasting: Managing Capacity. Submitted to the Bureau of Justice Statistics. The Urban Institute. Sankin, A., Mehrotra, D., Mattu, S., & Gilbertson, A. (2021). Crime Prediction Software Promised to Be Free of Biases. New Data Shows It Perpetuates Them. The Markup and Gizmodo, available at https://themarkup.org/prediction-bias/2021/12/02/crimeprediction-software-promised-to-be-free-of-biases-new-data-shows-it-perpetuates-them. Accessed 20 June 2022 Schmidt, P., & Witte, A. D. (1989). Predicting criminal recidivism using ‘split population’survival time models. Journal of Econometrics, 40(1), 141–159. Sidhu, D. S. (2015). Moneyball Sentencing. Boston College Law Review, 56, 671–731. Stollmack, S. (1973). Predicting Inmate Populations from Arrest, Court Disposition, and Recidivism Rates. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, July 1973, 141–162 Stein, M. I. (2022). Mayor Cantrell moves to reverse bans on facial recognition, predictive policing and other surveillance tech. The Lens. Retrieved from https://thelensnola.org/2022/02/17/mayor-cantrell-moves-to-reverse-bans-on-facial-recognition-predictive-policing-and-other-surveillance-tech/. Accessed 20 June 2022 Stop LAPD Spying Coalition. (2018). Dismantling predictive policing in Los Angeles. Retrieved from Los Angeles, CA: https://stoplapdspying.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Before-the-Bullet-Hits-the-Body-May-8-2018.pdf. Stop LAPD Spying Coalition, & Free Radicals. (2020). Algorithmic ecology: An abolitionist tool for organizing against algorithms. Retrieved from https://stoplapdspying.medium.com/the-algorithmic-ecology-an-abolitionist-tool-for-organizing-against-algorithms-14fcbd0e64d0. Stroud, M. (2016). Chicago’s predictive policing tool just failed a major test. The Verge. Aug, 19. Sturgill, K. (2020). Santa Cruz becomes the first U.S. city to ban predictive policing. Los Angeles Times. Retrieved from https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-26/santa-cruz-becomes-first-u-s-city-to-ban-predictive-policing. Accessed 20 June 2022 Surette, R., Applegate, B., McCarthy, B., & Jablonski, P. (2006). Self-destructing prophecies: Long-term forecasting of municipal correctional bed need. Journal of Criminal Justice, 34, 57–72. Susser, D. (2021). Predictive policing and the ethics of preemption. In B. Jones & E. Mendieta (Eds.), The ethics of policing: New perspectives on law enforcement (pp. 268–292). New York University Press. Theil, H. (1958). Economic forecasts and policy. North-Holland. Timmermann, A. (2006). G. Elliott, C. W. J. Granger and A. Timmermann (ed.). Chapter 4 Forecast Combinations. Handbook of Economic Forecasting. Vol. 1. pp. 135–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1574-0706(05)01004-9. ISBN 9780444513953. Tinbergen, J. (1952). Contributions to economic analysis, Vol. I: On the theory of economic policy. North Holland. Wan, W.-Y., Moffatt, S., Xie, Z., Corben, S., & Weatherburn, D. (2013). Forecasting prison populations using sentencing and arrest data. BOCSAR NSW Crime and Justice Bulletin, 174, 1–12. Warner, S. B. (1923). Factors determining parole from the Massachusetts Reformatory. Journal Of The American Institute Of Criminal Law And Criminology, 14, 172. Waxman, M. C. (2009). Police and national security: American local law enforcement and counterterrorism after 9/11. Journal of National Security Law & Policy, 3, 377. Weisburd, D., Mastrofski, S. D., McNally, A. M., Greenspan, R., & Willis, J. J. (2003). Reforming to preserve: Compstat and strategic problem solving in American policing. Criminology & Public Policy, 2(3), 421–456. Wieland, V., Wolters, M. H. (2013). Forecasting and policymaking, IMFS working paper series, No. 62, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS), Frankfurt a. M. https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-268758. Accessed 20 June 2022 Winston, A. (2018). Palantir has secretly been using New Orleans to test its predictive policing technology. The Verge, 27. Retrieved from https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/27/17054740/palantir-predictive-policing-tool-new-orleans-nopd Wolfers, J., & Zitzewitz, E. (2004). Prediction Markets. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2), 107–126. https://doi.org/10.1257/0895330041371321 Wyden, R., Clarke, Y., Markey, E. J., Warren, E., Merkley, J. A., Padilla, A., . . . Jackson Lee, S. (2021). [April 15, 2021 Letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland regarding DOJ funding of predictive policing algorithms]. Office of Senator Ron Wyden. Retrieved from https://www.wyden.senate.gov/news/press-releases/wyden-democrats-question-doj-funding-of-unproven-predictive-policing-technology Wykstra, S. (2018). Philosopher’s corner: What is “fair”? Algorithms in criminal justice. Issues in Science and Technology, 34(3), 21–23.