Forecasting Wave Amplitudes after the Arrival of a Tsunami
Tóm tắt
The destructive Pacific Ocean tsunami generated off the east coast of Honshu, Japan, on 11 March 2011 prompted the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) to issue a tsunami warning and advisory for the coastal regions of Alaska, British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California. Estimating the length of time the warning or advisory would remain in effect proved difficult. To address this problem, the WCATWC developed a technique to estimate the amplitude decay of a tsunami recorded at tide stations within the Warning Center’s Area of Responsibly (AOR). At many sites along the West Coast of North America, the tsunami wave amplitudes will decay exponentially following the arrival of the maximum wave (Mofjeld
et al., Nat Hazards 22:71–89, 2000). To estimate the time it will take before wave amplitudes drop to safe levels, the real-time tide gauge data are filtered to remove the effects of tidal variations. The analytic envelope is computed and a 2 h sequence of amplitude values following the tsunami peak is used to obtain a least squares fit to an exponential function. This yields a decay curve which is then combined with an average West Coast decay function to provide an initial tsunami amplitude-duration forecast. This information may then be provided to emergency managers to assist with response planning.
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