Forecast of abnormally high solar activity in the next century and of its possible negative effects on the earth
Tóm tắt
Based on the relation between the relative sunspot number R, the number of sunspot groups f0 generated per unit time on the Sun as a whole and their average lifetime T0, and on the extrapolation of time behaviour of f0 and T0, it is proved that abnormally high solar activity may be expected in the first half of the 21st century. At this time, the maximum annual relative sunspot numbers RM of the 11-year cycles should reach values of about 300 units. This abnormally high solar activity in the next century can be understood as the antipole of the Maunderean minimum. This forecast is used to discuss some of the possible consequences of this abnormally high solar activity for the processes on the Earth: changes of climate (heat waves and draughts in Central Europe), in the higher layers of the Earth's atmosphere (anomalous propagation of radio waves, increased effect of the density of the upper atmosphere on the orbits of man-made satellites), in seismicity (increased seismic activity in Europe and Southeast Asia), for technical devices (induced electric currents), in the biosphere. etc.
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