Flickering as an early warning signal

Vasilis Dakos1, Egbert H. van Nes2, Marten Scheffer2
1Estación Biológica de Donaña
2Department of Aquatic Ecology & Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Bjornstad ON, Grenfell BT, Bjørnstad ON (2001) Noisy clockwork: time series analysis of population fluctuations in animals. Science 293:638–643

Brock WA, Carpenter SR (2012) Early warnings of regime shift when the ecosystem structure is unknown. PLoS One 7:e45586

Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2006) Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition. Ecol Let 9:311–318

Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2010) Early warnings of regime shifts in spatial dynamics using the discrete Fourier transform. Ecosphere 1:art10

Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2011) Early warnings of unknown nonlinear shifts: a nonparametric approach. Ecology 92:2196–2201

Carpenter SR, Ludwig D, Brock WA, Columbia B (1999) Management of eutrophication for lakes subject to potentially irreversible change. Ecol Appl 9:751–771

Carpenter SR, Brock WA, Cole JJ, Kitchell JF, Pace ML (2008) Leading indicators of trophic cascades. Ecol Let 11:128–138

Carpenter SR, Cole JJ, Pace ML, Batt R, Brock WA, Cline T et al (2011) Early warnings of regime shifts: a whole-ecosystem experiment. Science 332:1079–1082

Cimatoribus AA, Drijfhout SS, Livina V, Van der Schrier G (2012) Dansgaard–Oeschger events: tipping points in the climate system. Clim Past Disc 8:4269–4294

Contamin R, Ellison AM (2009) Indicators of regime shifts in ecological systems: what do we need to know and when do we need to know it? Ecol Appl 19:799–816

Dakos V, Scheffer M, Van Nes EH, Brovkin V, Petoukhov V, Held H (2008) Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. PNAS 105:14308–14312

Dakos V, Van Nes EH, Donangelo R, Fort H, Scheffer M (2010) Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts. Theor Ecol 3:163–174

Dakos V, Kéfi S, Rietkerk M, Van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2011) Slowing down in spatially patterned ecosystems at the brink of collapse. Am Nat 177:E153–E166

Dakos V, Carpenter SR, Brock WA, Ellison AM, Guttal V, Ives AR et al (2012a) Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated using simulated ecological data. PLoS One 7:e41010

Dakos V, Van Nes EH, D’Odorico P, Scheffer M (2012b) Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down. Ecology 93:264–271

Dansgaard W, Johnsen SJ, Clausen HB, Dahl-Jensen D, Gundestrup NS, Hammer CU et al (1993) Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record. Nature 364:218–220

Ditlevsen PD, Johnsen SJ (2010) Tipping points: early warning and wishful thinking. Geoph Res Let 37:2–5

Drake JM, Griffen BD (2010) Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments. Nature 467:456–459

Ganopolski A, Rahmstorf S (2002) Abrupt glacial climate changes due to stochastic resonance. Phys Rev Let 88:038501

Guttal V, Jayaprakash C (2007) Impact of noise on bistable ecological systems. Ecol Model 201:420–428

Guttal V, Jayaprakash C (2008) Changing skewness : an early warning signal for regime shifts in ecosystems. Ecol Let 11:450–460

Guttal V, Jayaprakash C (2009) Spatial variance and spatial skewness: leading indicators of regime shifts in spatial ecological systems. Theor Ecol 2:3–12

Hastings A, Wysham DB (2010) Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning. Ecol Let 13:464–472

Held H, Kleinen T (2004) Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting. Geoph Res Let 31:1–4

Hirota M, Holmgren M, Van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2011) Global resilience of tropical forest and savanna to critical transitions. Science 334:232–235

Horsthemke W, Lefever R (2006) Noise-induced transitions: theory and applications in physics, chemistry, and biology. Springer, Berlin

Ives AR, Dakos V (2012) Detecting dynamical changes in nonlinear time series using locally linear state-space models. Ecosphere 3

Kramer MA, Truccolo W, Eden UT, Lepage KQ, Hochberg LR, Eskandar EN (2012) Human seizures self-terminate across spatial scales via a critical transition. PNAS 109:21116–21121

Lenton TM, Livina VN, Dakos V, Van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2012) Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness. Phil Trans R Soc A 370:1185–1204

Livina VN, Kwasniok F, Lenton TM (2010) Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr. Clim Past 6:77–82

Perretti CT, Munch SB (2012) Regime shift indicators fail under noise levels commonly observed in ecological systems. Ecol Appl 22:1772–1779

Ridolfi L, D’Odorico P, Laio F (2011) Noise-induced phenomena in the environmental sciences. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 322

Scheffer M, Bascompte J, Brock WA, Brovkin V, Carpenter SR, Dakos V et al (2009) Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461:53–59

Scheffer M, Carpenter SR, Lenton TM, Bascompte J, Brock W, Dakos V et al (2012a) Anticipating critical transitions. Science 338:344–348

Scheffer M, Hirota M, Holmgren M, Van Nes EH, Chapin FS (2012b) Thresholds for boreal biome transitions. PNAS 109:21384–21389

Strogatz SH (1994) Nonlinear dynamics and chaos with applications to physics, biology, chemistry and engineering. Perseus Books, Reading, p 498

Svensson A, Andersen KK, Bigler M, Clausen HB, Dahl-Jensen D, Davies SM et al (2008) A 60 000 year Greenland stratigraphic ice core chronology. Clim Past 4:47–57

Thompson JMT, Sieber J (2010) Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique. IMA J Appl Math 76:27–46

Van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2005) Implications of spatial heterogeneity for regime shifts in ecosystems. Ecology 86:1797–1807

Veraart AJ, Faassen EJ, Dakos V, Van Nes EH, Lürling M, Scheffer M (2012) Recovery rates reflect distance to a tipping point in a living system. Nature 481:357–359

Wang R, Dearing JA, Langdon PG, Zhang E, Yang X, Dakos V, Scheffer M (2012) Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state. Nature 492:419–422

Wiesenfeld K (1993) An Introduction to Stochastic Resonance. In: Buchler JR, Kandrup HE (eds) Stochastic processes in astrophysics. The New York Academy of Sciences, New York, pp 13–25

Wissel C (1984) A universal law of the characteristic return time near thresholds. Oecologia 65:101–107