Flawed Self-Assessment

Psychological Science in the Public Interest - Tập 5 Số 3 - Trang 69-106 - 2004
David Dunning1, Chip Heath2, Jerry Suls3
1Department of Psychology, Cornell University
2Graduate School of Business, Stanford University
3Department of Psychology, University of Iowa

Tóm tắt

Research from numerous corners of psychological inquiry suggests that self-assessments of skill and character are often flawed in substantive and systematic ways. We review empirical findings on the imperfect nature of self-assessment and discuss implications for three real-world domains: health, education, and the workplace. In general, people's self-views hold only a tenuous to modest relationship with their actual behavior and performance. The correlation between self-ratings of skill and actual performance in many domains is moderate to meager—indeed, at times, other people's predictions of a person's outcomes prove more accurate than that person's self-predictions. In addition, people overrate themselves. On average, people say that they are “above average” in skill (a conclusion that defies statistical possibility), overestimate the likelihood that they will engage in desirable behaviors and achieve favorable outcomes, furnish overly optimistic estimates of when they will complete future projects, and reach judgments with too much confidence. Several psychological processes conspire to produce flawed self-assessments. Research focusing on health echoes these findings. People are unrealistically optimistic about their own health risks compared with those of other people. They also overestimate how distinctive their opinions and preferences (e.g., discomfort with alcohol) are among their peers—a misperception that can have a deleterious impact on their health. Unable to anticipate how they would respond to emotion-laden situations, they mispredict the preferences of patients when asked to step in and make treatment decisions for them. Guided by mistaken but seemingly plausible theories of health and disease, people misdiagnose themselves—a phenomenon that can have severe consequences for their health and longevity. Similarly, research in education finds that students' assessments of their performance tend to agree only moderately with those of their teachers and mentors. Students seem largely unable to assess how well or poorly they have comprehended material they have just read. They also tend to be overconfident in newly learned skills, at times because the common educational practice of massed training appears to promote rapid acquisition of skill—as well as self-confidence—but not necessarily the retention of skill. Several interventions, however, can be introduced to prompt students to evaluate their skill and learning more accurately. In the workplace, flawed self-assessments arise all the way up the corporate ladder. Employees tend to overestimate their skill, making it difficult to give meaningful feedback. CEOs also display overconfidence in their judgments, particularly when stepping into new markets or novel projects—for example, proposing acquisitions that hurt, rather then help, the price of their company's stock. We discuss several interventions aimed at circumventing the consequences of such flawed assessments; these include training people to routinely make cognitive repairs correcting for biased self-assessments and requiring people to justify their decisions in front of their peers. The act of self-assessment is an intrinsically difficult task, and we enumerate several obstacles that prevent people from reaching truthful self-impressions. We also propose that researchers and practitioners should recognize self-assessment as a coherent and unified area of study spanning many subdisciplines of psychology and beyond. Finally, we suggest that policymakers and other people who makes real-world assessments should be wary of self-assessments of skill, expertise, and knowledge, and should consider ways of repairing self-assessments that may be flawed.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.2190/XD56-D6WR-7195-EAL3

Ajzen I., 1980, Understanding attitudes and predicting social behavior

10.1037/0022-3514.49.6.1621

Amler R., 1989, Healthier people

Arnold L., 1985, Journal of Medical Education, 60, 21

Ashford S.J., 1989, Research in organizational behavior, 133

10.2307/1556413

10.1080/00140137808931764

10.1177/014920639101700108

Baron J.N., 1999, Strategic human resources

Barrows H.S., 1980, Problem-based learning: An approach to medical education

10.1111/j.1464-0597.1991.tb01002.x

10.1037/0278-6133.8.4.449

10.1037/0278-6133.4.3.203

10.1521/jscp.1989.8.2.176

10.1177/0146167294201001

10.1177/109019817400200407

10.1016/0091-7435(73)90009-1

10.1037/0096-3445.127.1.55

Bjork R.A., 1988, Practical aspects of memory: Current research and issues: Vol. 1. Memory in everyday life, 396

Bjork R.A., 1994, Learning, remembering, believing: Enhancing human performance, 295

10.7551/mitpress/1480.003.0023

10.1080/00220970109600653

10.1177/0146167202282005

10.1037/0022-3514.65.3.546

10.1016/S0899-3289(01)00098-0

Boud D., 1995, Enhancing learning through self assessment

Boud D., 1991, The challenge of problem-based learning

10.1037/0278-6133.20.6.434

Braden B.R., 1998, Health Care Financing Review, 20, 83

Brockett R.G., 1991, Self-direction in adult learning: Perspectives on theory, research, and practice

Brody J.E., 1999, New York Times

10.1177/0146167297233003

10.1037/0022-3514.67.3.366

10.1017/CBO9780511808098.016

10.1177/0146167288142005

10.1177/0146167292181006

10.1016/S0738-3991(02)00054-X

Cambridge R.M., 1980, Are you sure? The subjective probability assessment test

10.1257/aer.89.1.306

10.1097/00006842-199501000-00006

Candy P.C., 1991, Self-direction for lifelong learning: A comprehensive guide to theory and practice

Caputo D., Journal of Experimental Social Psychology

10.1177/0146167203256870

10.1111/j.1559-1816.1984.tb02233.x

10.1037/0022-0663.93.1.55

Chi M.T.H., 1982, Advances in the psychology of human intelligence, 17

Christensen P., 1996, Nordic Road and Transport Research, 8, 22

10.1037/0096-1523.7.4.928

Clark M., 1959, Health in the Mexican-American culture

10.1016/S0002-8223(21)05189-0

College Board., 1976, Student descriptive questionnaire

10.1037/0033-2909.116.1.3

10.1037/0022-3514.68.6.1152

10.1016/0883-9026(88)90020-1

10.1016/S1054-139X(00)00213-5

10.1002/he.36919771703

Cusumano M.A., 1995, Microsoft secrets

10.1080/08832323.1992.10117564

Davis D., 1985, Harvard Business Review, 63, 95

Dawes R.M., 1988, Rational choice in an uncertain world

DeMarco T., 1982, Controlling software projects: Management, measurement, and estimation

10.1037/0003-066X.43.8.627

DeNisi A.S., 2000, Academy of Management Executive, 14, 129

10.1207/s15327957pspr0104_5

10.1080/03075079912331379935

10.7326/0003-4819-126-8-199704150-00010

Duch B., 2001, The power of problem-based learning

10.1080/00221325.1988.10532142

10.1016/0022-0965(89)90033-7

Dunbar K., 1995, The nature of insight, 365

10.3758/BF03210921

10.1002/9780470998519.ch16

10.4324/9780203337998

Dunning D., Basic principles in social psychology

10.1037/0022-3514.58.4.568

10.1111/1467-8721.01235

10.1037/0022-3514.57.6.1082

10.1037/0022-3514.61.6.957

10.1037/0022-3514.61.4.521

Ebbinghaus H., 1964, Memory: A contribution to experimental psychology

Ehrlinger J., 2004, Why the unskilled are unaware: Further explorations of (absent) self-insight among the incompetent

10.1037/0022-3514.79.6.861

Epley N., 2004, The mixed blessings of self-knowledge in behavioral prediction

10.3758/BF03198295

10.1037/0278-6133.20.3.166

10.3102/00346543059004395

10.3102/00346543070003287

10.1037/0021-9010.74.4.606

10.1037/h0025671

10.1177/001872675400700202

10.1037/0096-1523.3.4.552

10.1037/0022-0167.49.2.164

Friedman M., 1959, Type A and your heart

10.1207/s15328023top2302_9

Friend K., 1984, Public Opinion Quarterly, 40, 427

10.1037/0033-2909.101.1.75

10.1037/0022-3514.69.3.505

10.1037/0033-295X.103.3.592

10.1037/0033-295X.98.4.506

10.1037/0022-3514.75.3.617

10.1017/CBO9780511808098

10.3758/BF03197590

Glenberg A.M., 1992, Encyclopedia of learning and memory, 138

10.3758/BF03197714

10.3758/BF03202442

10.1258/095646203321043200

10.1037/0022-3514.59.6.1128

10.1016/S0065-2601(08)60333-0

10.1046/j.1365-2923.2001.00831.x

10.1037/0022-0663.92.1.160

10.1177/003151259407800331

10.1016/0091-7435(91)90039-7

10.3102/00346543052001123

10.1111/j.1744-6570.1988.tb00631.x

10.1093/her/7.1.107

Hastie R., 2001, Rational choice in an uncertain world

10.1309/8Y66-NCN2-J8NH-U66R

10.1037/0022-3514.72.3.664

10.2307/2393810

Heath C., 1998, Research in organizational behavior, 20, 1

10.2307/3666221

10.1037/0022-3514.68.4.595

10.1037/0033-295X.106.4.766

10.1207/S15327957PSPR0501_5

10.1111/j.1559-1816.2002.tb02760.x

10.1097/00001888-200110001-00029

10.1016/S0022-5371(78)90393-6

10.1037/0022-3514.50.5.899

10.1111/j.1467-839X.2004.00132.x

10.4037/ajcc1995.4.1.29

10.1287/mnsc.39.1.17

10.1037/h0034747

Kahneman D., 1979, TIMS Studies in Management Science, 12, 313

10.1017/CBO9780511809477.036

10.1037/0022-0663.92.4.800

10.1037/0278-7393.23.6.1394

Kelley H., 1967, Nebraska symposium on motivation, 192

10.1016/0749-5978(87)90047-1

Kim Y.M., 2000, Improving provider-client communication: Reinforcing IPC/C training in Indonesia with self-assessment and peer review

10.1080/0887044022000004920

10.1037/0022-3514.72.4.763

10.1037/0033-2909.119.2.254

Koch A., 2001, Science Education, 75, 858

10.1111/j.1467-6494.1996.tb00513.x

10.1037/0278-6133.14.1.56

10.1037/0022-3514.82.2.180

10.1037/0022-3514.77.2.221

10.1016/j.jesp.2003.06.002

10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121

10.1037/0022-3514.82.2.189

10.1037/0278-6133.6.1.15

10.1037/0033-2909.108.3.480

10.1056/NEJM199903183401101

10.1080/00224490309552174

Landier A., 2003, Financial contracting with optimistic entrepreneurs: Theory and evidence

10.1367/A03-122R1.1

10.5465/amr.1989.4279075

10.1111/j.1559-1816.1978.tb00783.x

10.1037/0021-9010.62.2.194

Lennon S., 1995, Enhancing student learning through peer tutoring in higher education: Section 3—Implementing, 66

10.1006/jvbe.1994.1027

Leventhal H., 1980, Contributions to medical psychology, 7

10.1037/0022-3514.75.1.5

Loftus E.F., 1988, Jurimetrics Journal, 29, 437

Lovallo D., 2003, Harvard Business Review, 81, 56

10.1037/0021-9010.67.3.280

10.1177/0146167299259007

10.1207/S15324834BASP2503_04

Maki R.H., 1998, Metacognition in educational theory and practice, 117

10.1037/0278-7393.10.4.663

10.3758/BF03200769

Malmendier U., 2003, Who makes acquisitions? A test of the overconfidence hypothesis

Malmendier U., Journal of Finance

10.1080/08832323.1991.10117521

10.1080/08870448908400377

10.1097/00001888-199811000-00020

10.1037/0278-6133.17.4.346

10.1037/0278-6133.21.1.25

10.1037/0278-6133.23.4.345

10.1037/11589-009

Mayhew D.R., 1996, Effectiveness and role of driver education and training in a graduated licensing system

10.1111/j.1559-1816.2001.tb02667.x

10.1111/j.2044-8295.1993.tb02461.x

10.1056/NEJM197205252862105

10.2307/2392813

10.1037/0278-6133.4.2.115

10.1521/jscp.1996.15.1.68

10.1037/0022-3514.53.2.298

Miller D.T., 1991, Social comparison: Contemporary theory and research, 287

10.1037/0022-3514.83.5.1066

Mintzberg H., 1975, Harvard Business Review, 53, 49

Moore D.A., 2004, Strategic myopia and entrepreneurial entry: An experimental approach

10.1037/0022-3514.85.6.1121

10.1037/0022-0663.73.3.335

10.1080/135485099106108

10.1016/0022-1031(85)90020-4

10.1111/j.1559-1816.1988.tb00001.x

10.1111/j.1467-9280.1991.tb00147.x

10.1037/1076-898X.6.3.171

Newell A., 1969, Progress in operations research, 360

Nisbett R.E., 1980, Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment

10.1046/j.1365-2923.2003.01536.x

10.1111/0022-1082.00078

10.2466/pms.2000.91.3.917

Oskamp S., 1965, Journal of Clinical Psychology, 29, 261

10.1037/0022-3514.74.5.1197

10.1007/978-1-4613-8196-9

10.15288/jsas.2002.s14.164

10.3109/10826088609077249

10.1097/00006842-200207000-00007

Porter M., 1980, Competitive strategy

Prahalad C.K., 1990, Harvard Business Review, 68, 79

10.1037/0022-3514.64.2.243

10.1177/0146167202286008

10.1037/0003-066X.48.2.102

10.1006/obhd.1998.2803

10.3758/BF03209230

10.1023/A:1021463221281

Risucci D.A., 1989, Surgical Gynecology and Obstetrics, 169, 519

10.1080/00223980.1975.9915803

10.1086/296325

10.2307/3348967

10.1016/0022-1031(77)90049-X

10.1111/j.2044-8295.1998.tb02710.x

10.1037/0021-9010.78.3.450

10.1207/S15324834BASP2103_6

Sambell K., 1997, Improving student learning—improving students as learners, 56

10.1037/h0062326

Schanck R., 1932, Psychological Monographs, 43, 1, 10.1037/h0093296

10.1016/S0002-9610(03)00062-X

10.1111/1467-9280.00066

10.1016/S0885-2014(00)00024-1

10.1111/j.1559-1816.1998.tb01365.x

10.1037/0022-3514.65.4.769

10.1016/0092-6566(79)90012-6

10.1037/0003-066X.48.11.1117

10.1111/j.1468-2958.1994.tb00348.x

10.1177/01461672002611003

10.1016/0022-1031(81)90011-1

10.1002/1099-050X(200024)39:4<331::AID-HRM5>3.0.CO;2-Y

10.1177/01461672962212004

10.2307/1423355

10.1037/0278-7393.27.4.907

10.1016/0004-3702(73)90011-8

Sinkavich F.J., 1995, Instructional Psychology, 22, 77

Skelly G.B., 1968, Aspects of driving experience in the first year as a qualified driver

10.1037/0278-7393.26.1.204

10.1111/1467-6494.00118

10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00291.x

10.1037/0033-2909.124.2.240

Stock M.F., 1983, Evaluation of safe performance secondary school driver education curriculum demonstration project: Final report

10.1016/S0022-1031(02)00529-2

Stuart M.R., 1980, Journal of Family Practice, 10, 639

10.1016/S0002-9610(99)00006-9

10.1037/0278-6133.22.5.479

10.1037/0022-3514.82.2.252

10.1037/0022-3514.52.1.211

10.1111/j.1559-1816.1988.tb00006.x

10.1007/978-1-4615-4237-7

10.1026//0943-8149.11.3.107

10.1006/jesp.1998.1370

10.1037/0033-2909.103.2.193

10.1037/0033-2909.116.1.21

10.1037/0022-3514.46.3.489

Thiede K.W., 1999, Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 30, 125

10.1016/S0361-476X(02)00011-5

10.1037/0022-0663.95.1.66

10.1037/0022-0663.86.2.290

10.3102/00346543068003249

10.1136/bmj.315.7120.1426

10.1037/0033-295X.110.3.403

10.1037/0022-3514.58.4.582

Van Boven L., Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

Van Boven L., 2004, The illusion of courage: Underestimating fear of embarrassment in public performance decisions

10.1177/0265407596134001

10.1037/0022-0663.81.3.435

10.1016/S0002-9610(03)00069-2

10.1001/jama.1994.03520210056032

10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806

10.1037/0278-6133.2.1.11

10.1007/BF00846146

10.1037/0278-6133.7.4.355

10.1002/9780470753552.ch2

10.1037/0278-6133.14.2.132

10.1177/0146167282082002

Wilde G.J.S., 1998, Recovery, 9, 18

10.1037/0022-3514.78.5.821

10.1037/0022-3514.85.3.389

10.1111/0022-4537.00199

10.1006/obhd.1997.2696

10.1006/obhd.1998.2771

10.2307/2393221

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Psychological Science in the Public Interest

Tập 5 Số 3

69-106

Thông tin tác giả