Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries
Tóm tắt
Across a sample of 34 emerging countries, the evidence shows the frequent existence of a pro-cyclical fiscal impulse. However, the scope for counter-cyclical policy increases with the availability of international reserves, as it enhances credibility and mitigates concerns about the effect of expansionary fiscal policy on the cost of borrowing and debt service. The paper also examines the effectiveness of the fiscal policy in emerging countries in the short run and long run and its underlying conditions, which does not appear to be uniform.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Afonso, A., L. Agnello, and D. Furceri . 2010. Fiscal Policy Responsiveness, Persistence, and Discretion. Public Choice, 145 (3–4): 503–530.
Blanchard, Olivier, and Roberto Perotti . 2002. An Empirical Investigation of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117 (4): 1329–1368.
Blinder, Alan S. 2004. The Case against Discretionary Fiscal Policy, Center for European Policy Studies Working Paper No. 100, June, Brussels, Belgium.
Choi, I. 2006. Combination Unit Root Tests for Cross-Sectionally Correlated Panels, in Econometric Theory Practice: Frontiers of Analysis and Applied Research, edited by D. Corbae, S. Durlauf and B. Hansen. Essays in honor of Peter C. B. Phillips, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Christiano, Lawrence, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Robelo . 2011. When is the Government Spending Multiplier Large? Journal of Political Economy, 119 (1): 78–121.
Daniel, James, Jeff Davis, Manal Fouad, and C. Van Rijckegham . 2006. Fiscal Adjustment for Stability and Growth. Pamphlet Series No. 55, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
Eskesen, Leif Lybecker 2009. The Role for Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy in Singapore, IMF Working Paper WP/09/8, Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
Freedman, Charles, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, and Jaewoo Lee . 2009. The Case for Global Fiscal Stimulus, IMF Staff Position Note 09/01, Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
Ghosh, R. Atish, Marcos Chamon, Christopher Crowe, Jun I. Kim, and Jonathan D. Ostry . 2009. Coping with the Crisis: Policy Options for Emerging Market Economies, IMF Staff Position Note 09/08, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
Hemming, Richard, Michael Kell, and Selma Mahfouz . 2002. The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity — A Review of the Literature, IMF Working Paper WP/02/208, Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
Husain, Aasim M., Kamilya Tazhibayeva, and Anna Ter-Martirosyan . 2008. Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries, IMF Working Paper, WP/08/253 Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
Ilzetzki, Ethan, and Carlos A. Vegh . 2008. Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction? NBER Working Paper No. W14191, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
International Monetary Fund. 2008. Fiscal Policy as a Countercyclical Tool, World Economic Outlook, Chapter 5, Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
Jeanne, Olivier, and Romain Ranciere . 2011. Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications. Economic Journal, 121 (555): 905–930.
Kandil, Magda 2005. On the Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Countries. Oxford Development Studies, 33 (2): 269–304.
Kandil, Magda . 2006a. Variation in the Effects of Government Spending Shocks with Methods of Financing: Evidence from the U.S. International Review of Economics and Finance, 15 (4): 463–486.
Kandil, Magda . 2006b. The Growth of Government Spending and the Money Supply: Evidence and Implications Within and Across Industrial Countries. Journal of Economic Studies, 33 (6): 406–436.
Kandil, Magda . 2009. Demand-Side Stabilization Policies: What is the Evidence of Their Potential? Journal of Economics and Business, 61 (3): 261–276.
Kandil, Magda, and Ida Mirzaie . 2002. Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Disaggregate Economic Activity in the U.S.: Theory and Evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 21 (1): 1–31.
Kumar, Manmohan, and Teresa Ter-Minassian (eds.) 2007. Promoting Fiscal Discipline. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
Lane, Philip R. 2003. Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies, Trinity College Dublin Working Paper, http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/TEP/2003_papers/TEPNo2PL23.pdf.
Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria . 1997. Fiscal Rules and the Budget Process, Center for Economic Policy Research. Discussion Paper Series; No. 1664: 1–40, June.
Moon, H., and B. Perron . 2004. Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors. Journal of Econometrics, 122 (1): 8–126.
Reinhart, M. Carmen, and Kenneth S. Rogoff . 2009. The Aftermath of Financial Crisis. American Economic Review, 99 (2): 466–472.
Spilimbergo, Antonio, Steve Symansky, Olivier Blanchard, and Carlo Cottarelli . 2008. Fiscal Policy for the Crisis, IMF Staff Position Note 08/01, Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
Westerland, J., and D. Edgerton . 2007. A Panel Bootstrap Cointegration Test. Economics Letters, 97 (3): 185–190.
Woodford, Michael 2010. Simple Analysis of the Government Expenditure Multiplier, Working Paper, Columbia University.
World Economic Outlook (WEO). 2009. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.