Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts

The Lancet Global Health - Tập 8 Số 4 - Trang e488-e496 - 2020
Joel Hellewell1, Sam Abbott1, Amy Gimma1, Nikos I Bosse1, Christopher I Jarvis1, Timothy Russell1, James D. Munday1, Adam J. Kucharski1, W. John Edmunds1, Sebastian Funk1, Stefan Flasche1, Billy J. Quilty, Yang Liu, Nicholas G. Davies, Mark Jit, Petra Klepac, Charlie Diamond, Hamish Gibbs, Kevin van Zandvoort
1Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

2020

2020

2020

Quilty

Fraser, 2004, Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 101, 6146, 10.1073/pnas.0307506101

Peak, 2017, Comparing nonpharmaceutical interventions for containing emerging epidemics, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 114, 4023, 10.1073/pnas.1616438114

Glasser, 2011, Modeling and public health emergency responses: lessons from SARS, Epidemics, 3, 32, 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.01.001

Swanson, 2018, Contact tracing performance during the Ebola epidemic in Liberia, 2014–2015, PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 12, 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006762

2015

Kang, 2016, Contact tracing for imported case of Middle East respiratory syndrome, China, 2015, Emerging Infect Dis, 22, 9, 10.3201/eid2209.152116

Hoang, 2019, Active contact tracing beyond the household in multidrug resistant tuberculosis in Vietnam: a cohort study, BMC Public Health, 19, 241, 10.1186/s12889-019-6573-z

Klinkenberg, 2006, The effectiveness of contact tracing in emerging epidemics, PLoS One, 1, e12, 10.1371/journal.pone.0000012

Abbott, 2020, The transmissibility of novel coronavirus in the early stages of the 2019–20 outbreak in Wuhan: exploring initial point-source exposure sizes and durations using scenario analysis, Wellcome Open Res, 5, 17, 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15718.1

Imai

Kucharski, 2016, Effectiveness of ring vaccination as control strategy for Ebola virus disease, Emerg Infect Dis, 22, 105, 10.3201/eid2201.151410

Imai

Lloyd-Smith, 2005, Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence, Nature, 438, 355, 10.1038/nature04153

Donnelly, 2003, Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, Lancet, 361, 1761, 10.1016/S0140-6736(03)13410-1

Li, 2020, Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia, N Engl J Med, 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

Backer, 2020, The incubation period of 2019-nCoV infections among travellers from Wuhan, China, medRxiv

Riou, 2020, Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020, Eurosurveillance, 25, 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058

Bedford

Majumder, 2020

Read, 2020, Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions, medRxiv

Zhao, 2020, Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: a data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak, Int J Infect Dis, 92, 214, 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050

Dugas, 2013, Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends, PLoS One, 8, 10.1371/journal.pone.0056176

Yu, 2020, A familial cluster of infection associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating potential person-to-person transmission during the incubation period, J Infect Dis, 10.1093/infdis/jiaa077

Heymann, 2020, COVID-19: what is next for public health?, Lancet, 395, 542, 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30374-3

Dhillon, 2018, When is contact tracing not enough to stop an outbreak?, Lancet Infect Dis, 18, 1302, 10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30656-X

Olu, 2016, Contact tracing during an outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Western area districts of Sierra Leone: lessons for future Ebola outbreak response, Front Public Health, 4, 130, 10.3389/fpubh.2016.00130

Huang, 2020, Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, Lancet, 395, 497, 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30183-5

Pang, 2003, Evaluation of control measures implemented in the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in Beijing, 2003, JAMA, 290, 3215, 10.1001/jama.290.24.3215