Fault trees analysis using expert opinion based on fuzzy‐bathtub failure rates

Quality and Reliability Engineering International - Tập 34 Số 6 - Trang 1142-1157 - 2018
Mohammad Nadjafi1, Mohammad Ali Farsi1, Enrico Zio2, Arash Kheyraddini Mousavi3
1Aerospace Research Institute, Ministry of Science, Research and Technology, Tehran, Iran
2Dipartimento Di Energia - Politecnico Di Milano Milan Italy
3New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology Mechanical Engineering Department Socorro NM USA

Tóm tắt

AbstractThe main objective of fault tree analysis method is to estimate the “Top Event occurrence probability”. This requires determination of failure time distribution functions also known as “Bathtub Curves” for each of the system elements/events. This paper introduces a novel method to determine the failure time distribution functions using possibility theory. For this purpose, fuzzy‐bathtub distributions using expert opinions are generated for basic events and fuzzy formulas are derived for static and dynamic gates fault tree constructions. This process completed by proposed fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation throughout the preferred operational time and uses the actual time‐to‐failure data. Accordingly, the Top Event failure curve and the reliability profile of the system are depicted based on the defuzzificated basic‐events' bathtub‐failure‐rates. The results show that the proposed method not only is feasible and powerful but can also be accurate more than the other probabilistic and possibilistic techniques because of the component failure rates follow the real failure distributions.

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