Nội dung được dịch bởi AI, chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo
Các yếu tố tiếp xúc so với khả năng sinh khả dụng trong con đường tiêu thụ đất và bụi: Đánh giá so sánh về các yếu tố không chắc chắn sử dụng mô phỏng MC2D trong kịch bản tiếp xúc với arsenic
Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Trang 1-19 - 2023
Tóm tắt
Đánh giá rủi ro sức khỏe con người (HHRA) là một phương pháp phổ biến được áp dụng để đưa ra quyết định về tình trạng môi trường của các địa điểm bị ảnh hưởng bởi các chất độc hại. Những kết luận của nó bị ảnh hưởng bởi sự biến động và không chắc chắn của các biến đầu vào trong mô hình HHRA. Mục tiêu của công việc này là áp dụng một thuật toán dựa trên mô phỏng Monte Carlo 2D để tích hợp sự biến động và không chắc chắn của các yếu tố tiếp xúc, nồng độ và khả năng sinh khả dụng, được báo cáo bởi nhiều nguồn thông tin khác nhau, nhằm đánh giá và so sánh ảnh hưởng của chúng đối với kết quả rủi ro. Phương pháp này được áp dụng cho một nghiên cứu trường hợp cụ thể về sự tiếp xúc của trẻ em với arsenic từ việc tiêu thụ đất do vô tình trong một khu dân cư ở thành phố Madrid (Tây Ban Nha) bằng cách kết hợp thông tin từ 12 nghiên cứu. Việc xem xét sự biến động và không chắc chắn của các tham số tiếp xúc trong Đánh giá Rủi ro Cơ bản (BRA, xác định) đã dẫn đến việc giảm lớn hơn giá trị số của các ước tính rủi ro so với việc chỉ xem xét yếu tố khả năng sinh khả dụng. Kết quả của Đánh giá Rủi ro Xác suất (PRA) cho thấy rằng phân phối rủi ro nhạy cảm hơn với sự biến động của tỷ lệ tiêu thụ đất vô tình và tổng nồng độ arsenic hơn là các biến khác như khả năng sinh khả dụng. Trong trường hợp nghiên cứu này, sự không chắc chắn được đưa ra khi sử dụng các yếu tố tiếp xúc tối đa hợp lý "mặc định" trong mô hình HHRA và sự biến động của thuật ngữ nồng độ dẫn đến các ước tính rủi ro lớn hơn, ít nhất trong phạm vi những gì được tạo ra bằng cách loại bỏ thuật ngữ khả năng sinh khả dụng. Do đó, việc đưa vào khả năng sinh khả dụng, một mình, là chưa đủ để cải thiện HHRA vì việc lựa chọn các yếu tố tiếp xúc có thể ảnh hưởng đáng kể đến các ước tính rủi ro cho con đường tiêu thụ đất. Tuy nhiên, ở các địa điểm khác hoặc cho các chất ô nhiễm khác, vai trò của sự không chắc chắn liên quan đến phần khả năng sinh khả dụng có thể rõ ràng hơn. Phương pháp được áp dụng trong công việc này có thể hữu ích trong việc cập nhật các yếu tố tiếp xúc để giảm thiểu sự không chắc chắn trong HHRA.
Từ khóa
#Đánh giá rủi ro sức khỏe con người #mô phỏng Monte Carlo 2D #khả năng sinh khả dụng #tiếp xúc với arsenic #tiêu thụ đấtTài liệu tham khảo
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