Exploring the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability on armed conflict in South Asia

Abid, 2015, Farmers' perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants: the case of Punjab province, Pakistan, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 225, 10.5194/esd-6-225-2015 Abowarda, 2021, Generating surface soil moisture at 30 m spatial resolution using both data fusion and machine learning toward better water resources management at the field scale, Remote Sens. Environ., 255, 1, 10.1016/j.rse.2021.112301 Adams, 2018, Sampling bias in climate-conflict research, Nat. Clim. Chang., 8, 200, 10.1038/s41558-018-0068-2 Adedeji, 2016, The role of local content policy in local value creation in Nigeria's oil industry: a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach, Resour. Pol., 49, 61, 10.1016/j.resourpol.2016.04.006 Anderson, 1989, Temperature and aggression - ubiquitous effects of heat on occurrence of human violence, Psychol. Bull., 106, 74, 10.1037/0033-2909.106.1.74 Asgary, 2012, Disaster recovery and business continuity after the 2010 flood in Pakistan: case of small businesses, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 2, 46, 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2012.08.001 Bagozzi, 2012, Specification, evaluation, and interpretation of structural equation models, J. Acad. Mark. Sci., 40, 8, 10.1007/s11747-011-0278-x Bell, 1976, Aggression and heat: the mediating role of negative affect, J. Appl. Soc. Psychol., 6, 18, 10.1111/j.1559-1816.1976.tb01308.x Bentler, 1980, Significance tests and goodness of fit in the analysis of covariance-structures, Psychol. Bull., 88, 588, 10.1037/0033-2909.88.3.588 Bohlken, 2010, Economic growth and ethnic violence: an empirical investigation of Hindu-Muslim riots in India, J. Peace Res., 47, 589 Buhaug, 2010, Climate not to blame for African civil wars, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 16477, 10.1073/pnas.1005739107 Buhaug, 2021, Vicious circles: violence, vulnerability, and climate change, Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour., 46, 545, 10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708 Burke, 2009, Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 20670, 10.1073/pnas.0907998106 Busby, 2018, In harm's way: climate security vulnerability in Asia, World Dev., 112, 88, 10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.07.007 Carleton, 2016, Social and economic impacts of climate, Science, 353, aad9837, 10.1126/science.aad9837 Cederman, 2010, Why do ethnic groups rebel? New data and analysis, World Polit., 62, 87, 10.1017/S0043887109990219 2011 Chaturvedi, 2012, Multi-model climate change projections for India under representative concentration pathways, Curr. Sci., 103, 791 Chen, 2011, Using luminosity data as a proxy for economic statistics, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 8589, 10.1073/pnas.1017031108 Christian, 2011 Collier, 2004, Greed and grievance in civil war, Oxf. Econ. Pap., 56, 563, 10.1093/oep/gpf064 de Mesquita, 2017, Political succession: a model of coups, revolution, purges, and everyday politics, J. Conflict Resolut., 61, 707, 10.1177/0022002715603100 Diffenbaugh, 2019, Global warming has increased global economic inequality, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 9808, 10.1073/pnas.1816020116 D'Odorico, 2020, The global value of water in agriculture, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 21985, 10.1073/pnas.2005835117 Eastin, 2018, Hell and high water: precipitation shocks and conflict violence in the Philippines, Polit. Geogr., 63, 116, 10.1016/j.polgeo.2016.12.001 Fearon, 2003, Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war, Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 97, 75, 10.1017/S0003055403000534 Fensholt, 2012, Evaluation of Earth Observation based global long term vegetation trends - comparing GIMMS and MODIS global NDVI time series, Remote Sens. Environ., 119, 131, 10.1016/j.rse.2011.12.015 Ge, 2022, Modelling armed conflict risk under climate change with machine learning and time-series data, Nat. Commun., 13, 2839, 10.1038/s41467-022-30356-x Goswami, 2006, Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment, Science, 314, 1442, 10.1126/science.1132027 Guedes, 2016, Twenty-first century approaches to ancient problems: climate and society, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 14483, 10.1073/pnas.1616188113 Helman, 2020, Climate has contrasting direct and indirect effects on armed conflicts, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 104017, 10.1088/1748-9326/aba97d Henderson, 2011, A bright idea for measuring economic growth, Am. Econ. Rev., 101, 194, 10.1257/aer.101.3.194 Hsiang, 2013, Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict, Science, 341, 1235367, 10.1126/science.1235367 Ikhuoso, 2020, Climate change and agriculture: the competition for limited resources amidst crop farmers-livestock herding conflict in Nigeria - a review, J. Clean. Prod., 272, 123104, 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123104 2011 Jun, 2021, Extreme weather events and military conflict over seven centuries in ancient Korea, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, 10.1073/pnas.2021976118 Keller, 1998, Use of structural equation modeling to test the construct validity of the SF-36 Health Survey in ten countries: results from the IQOLA Project, J. Clin. Epidemiol., 51, 1179, 10.1016/S0895-4356(98)00110-3 Kelley, 2015, Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 3241, 10.1073/pnas.1421533112 Koubi, 2019, Climate change and conflict, Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci., 22, 343, 10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-070830 Koubi, 2012, Climate variability, economic growth, and civil conflict, J. Peace Res., 49, 113, 10.1177/0022343311427173 Kreutz, 2010, How and when armed conflicts end: introducing the UCDP Conflict Termination dataset, J. Peace Res., 47, 243, 10.1177/0022343309353108 Levin, 2017, A global analysis of factors controlling VIIRS nighttime light levels from densely populated areas, Remote Sens. Environ., 190, 366, 10.1016/j.rse.2017.01.006 Lim, 2007, Global pattern formation and ethnic/cultural violence, Science, 317, 1540, 10.1126/science.1142734 Lobell, 2011, Climate trends and global crop production since 1980, Science, 333, 616, 10.1126/science.1204531 Mack, 2021, Conflict and its relationship to climate variability in Sub-Saharan Africa, Sci. Total Environ., 775, 145646, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145646 Meza, 2009, Dynamic adaptation of maize and wheat production to climate change, Clim. Change, 94, 143, 10.1007/s10584-009-9544-z O'Loughlin, 2014, Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on the risk of violence in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2012, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 16712, 10.1073/pnas.1411899111 O'Loughlin, 2012, Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990-2009, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 18344, 10.1073/pnas.1205130109 Pollman, 2014, Mercury cycling in aquatic ecosystems and trophic state-related variables - implications from structural equation modeling, Sci. Total Environ., 499, 62, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.08.036 Raleigh, 2009, Population size, concentration, and civil war. A geographically disaggregated analysis, Polit. Geogr., 28, 224, 10.1016/j.polgeo.2009.05.007 Roche, 2020, Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 1935, 10.1073/pnas.1914829117 Salehyan, 2014, Climate shocks and political violence, Glob. Environ. Change, 28, 239, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.007 Scheffran, 2012, Climate change and violent conflict, Science, 336, 869, 10.1126/science.1221339 Schilling, 2020, Climate change vulnerability, water resources and social implications in North Africa, Reg. Environ. Change, 20, 15, 10.1007/s10113-020-01597-7 Schleussner, 2016, Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 9216, 10.1073/pnas.1601611113 Schutte, 2011, Diffusion patterns of violence in civil wars, Polit. Geogr., 30, 143, 10.1016/j.polgeo.2011.03.005 Shen, 2020, Recent global performance of the climate Hazards group infrared precipitation (CHIRP) with Stations (CHIRPS), J. Hydrol. X, 591, 125284, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125284 Shi, 2014, Evaluation of NPP-VIIRS night-time light composite data for extracting built-up urban areas, Remote Sens. Lett., 5, 358, 10.1080/2150704X.2014.905728 Snee, 1977, Validation of regression-models - methods and examples, Technometrics, 19, 415, 10.1080/00401706.1977.10489581 Stenzel, 2021, Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change, Nat. Commun., 12, 1512, 10.1038/s41467-021-21640-3 Theisen, 2013, Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?, Clim. Change, 117, 613, 10.1007/s10584-012-0649-4 Vinke, 2017, Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia: extremes of water scarcity and excess, Reg. Environ. Change, 17, 1569, 10.1007/s10113-015-0924-9 Vogt, 2015, Integrating data on ethnicity, geography, and conflict: the ethnic power relations data set family, J. Conflict Resolut., 59, 1327, 10.1177/0022002715591215 von Uexkull, 2021, Security implications of climate change: a decade of scientific progress, J. Peace Res., 58, 3, 10.1177/0022343320984210 von Uexkull, 2016, Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 12391, 10.1073/pnas.1607542113 Weiss, 2018, A global map of travel time to cities to assess inequalities in accessibility in 2015, Nature, 553, 333, 10.1038/nature25181 Wheeler, 2013, Climate change impacts on global food security, Science, 341, 508, 10.1126/science.1239402 Wischnath, 2014, On climate variability and civil war in Asia, Clim. Change, 122, 709, 10.1007/s10584-013-1004-0 Zhang, 2007, Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 19214, 10.1073/pnas.0703073104 Zheng, 2019, Spatiotemporal patterns and risk factors for scrub typhus from 2007 to 2017 in southern China, Clin. Infect. Dis., 69, 1205, 10.1093/cid/ciy1050