Exploring China's oil consumption pathways toward 2060 under different climate targets

Environmental Impact Assessment Review - Tập 103 - Trang 107233 - 2023
Yu Ding1, Hongbo Duan2, Xu Tang1,3,4, Kaipeng Ren1, Zheqi Yang1, Zhixuan Lan5, Shizhang Liu5
1School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China
2School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
3Institute of Carbon Neutrality and Innovative Energy Development, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China
4Research Center for China's Oil and Gas Industry Development, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China
5KUNLUN Digital Intelligence Technologies Co., Ltd, Beijing 100040, China

Tài liệu tham khảo

Akimoto, 2004, Assessment of global warming mitigation options with integrated assessment model DNE21, Energy Econ., 26, 635, 10.1016/j.eneco.2004.04.021 Aldy, 2016, Economic tools to promote transparency and comparability in the Paris agreement, Nat. Clim. Chang., 6, 1000, 10.1038/nclimate3106 Al-Fattah, 2020, A new artificial intelligence GANNATS model predicts gasoline demand of Saudi Arabia, J. Pet. Sci. Eng., 194, 10.1016/j.petrol.2020.107528 Al-Fattah, 2021, Application of the artificial intelligence GANNATS model in forecasting crude oil demand for Saudi Arabia and China, J. Pet. Sci. Eng., 200, 10.1016/j.petrol.2021.108368 Bosetti, 2006, A world induced technical change hybrid model, Energy J., 13-37 Bouwman, 2006, Integrated modelling of global environmental change, Overv. IMAGE, 2, 225 British Petroleum, 2023 Cai, 2016, Risk of multiple interacting tipping points should encourage rapid CO2 emission reduction, Nat. Clim. Chang., 6, 520, 10.1038/nclimate2964 Calvin, 2012, The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: results from the Asia modeling exercise, Energy Econ., 34, S251, 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.09.003 Chuai, 2022, Carbon neutrality check in spatial and the response to land use analysis in China, Environ. Impact Assess. Rev., 97, 10.1016/j.eiar.2022.106893 Duan, 2021, Medium- and long-term development path of natural gas consumption in China: based on a multi-model comparison framework, Nat. Gas Industry B, 8, 344, 10.1016/j.ngib.2021.07.004 Duan, 2021, Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5° C warming limit, Science, 372, 378, 10.1126/science.aba8767 Eom, 2015, The impact of near-term climate policy choices on technology and emission transition pathways, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 90, 73, 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.017 European Commission Friedlingstein, 2014, Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets, Nat. Geosci., 7, 709, 10.1038/ngeo2248 Fujimori, 2012 Fujimori, 2017, SSP3: AIM implementation of shared socioeconomic pathways, Glob. Environ. Chang., 42, 268, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.009 Golub, 2014, Uncertainty in integrated assessment models of climate change: alternative analytical approaches, Environ. Model. Assess., 19, 99, 10.1007/s10666-013-9386-y He, 2022, Factors influencing carbon emissions from China’s electricity industry: analysis using the combination of LMDI and K-means clustering, Environ. Impact Assess. Rev., 93, 10.1016/j.eiar.2021.106724 Hwang, 2017, The effect of learning on climate policy under fat-tailed risk, Resour. Energy Econ., 48, 1, 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2017.01.001 IEA, 2021 IPCC Jiang, 2010, Technology roadmap for low carbon society in China, J. Renew. Sustain. Energy, 2 Karakurt, 2021, Modelling and forecasting the oil consumptions of the BRICS-T countries, Energy, 220, 10.1016/j.energy.2020.119720 Leimbach, 2010, Technological change and international trade–insights from REMIND-R, Energy J., 109–136 Li, 2018, Analysis and forecasting of the oil consumption in China based on combination models optimized by artificial intelligence algorithms, Energy, 144, 243, 10.1016/j.energy.2017.12.042 Ma, 2012, Oil development in China: current status and future trends, Energy Policy, 45, 43, 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.01.023 Mach, 2017, Toward the next generation of assessment, Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour., 42, 569, 10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-061007 Otto, 2015, Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy, Nat. Clim. Chang., 5, 917, 10.1038/nclimate2716 Pan, 2018, Decarbonization of China’s transportation sector: in light of national mitigation toward the Paris agreement goals, Energy, 155, 853, 10.1016/j.energy.2018.04.144 Pan, 2020, Analysis of China’s oil and gas consumption under different scenarios toward 2050: an integrated modeling, Energy, 116991 Raupach, 2014, Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions, Nat. Clim. Chang., 4, 873, 10.1038/nclimate2384 Rogelj, 2015, Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C, Nat. Clim. Chang., 5, 519, 10.1038/nclimate2572 Tao, 2010, Scenarios of China’s oil consumption per capita (OCPC) using a hybrid factor decomposition-system dynamics (SD) simulation, Energy, 35, 168, 10.1016/j.energy.2009.09.007 Vrontisi, 2018, Enhancing global climate policy ambition towards a 1.5°C stabilization: a short-term multi-model assessment, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 10.1088/1748-9326/aab53e Wang, 2019, Forecasting China’s oil consumption: a comparison of novel nonlinear-dynamic grey model (GM), linear GM, nonlinear GM and metabolism GM, Energy, 183, 160, 10.1016/j.energy.2019.06.139 Xiao, 2018, A hybrid model based on selective ensemble for energy consumption forecasting in China, Energy, 159, 534, 10.1016/j.energy.2018.06.161 Xu, 2022, Towards low-carbon economy by carbon label?: survey evidence from first-tier cities in China, Environ. Impact Assess. Rev., 97, 10.1016/j.eiar.2022.106902 Zeng, 2021, Analysis and forecast of China’s energy consumption structure, Energy Policy, 159, 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112630 Zhang, 2022, China’s energy transition pathway in a carbon neutral vision, Engineering, 14, 64, 10.1016/j.eng.2021.09.004 Zheng, 2021, Limiting global warming to below 1.5 °C from 2 °C: an energy-system-based multi-model analysis for China, Energy Econ., 100, 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105355