Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents’ forecasts

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Clements, M.P., Harvey, D.I., 2009. Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts. Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming, doi:10.1002/jae.1097

Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., 2008. What can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities?. Mimeo, College of William and Mary.

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Croushore, 2001, A real-time data set for macroeconomists, Journal of Econometrics, 105, 111, 10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00072-0

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Diebold, 1998, Evaluating density forecasts: with applications to financial risk management, International Economic Review, 39, 863, 10.2307/2527342

Diebold, 1999, Multivariate density forecast evaluation and calibration in financial risk management: high frequency returns on foreign exchange, Review of Economics and Statistics, 81, 661, 10.1162/003465399558526

Diebold, 1999, Evaluating density forecasts of inflation: the survey of professional forecasters, 76

Ehrbeck, 1996, Why are professional forecasters biased? Agency versus behavioral explanations, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111, 21, 10.2307/2946656

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Engelberg, 2009, Comparing the point predictions and subjective probability distributions of professional forecasters, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 27, 30, 10.1198/jbes.2009.0003

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Fixler, 2008, The reliability of the GDP and GDI estimates, Survey of Current Business, 88, 16

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Giacomini, 2005, Evaluation and combination of conditional quantile forecasts, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 23, 416, 10.1198/073500105000000018

Giordani, 2003, Inflation forecast uncertainty, European Economic Review, 74, 1037, 10.1016/S0014-2921(02)00236-2

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Hommes, C., 2006. Heterogeneous agent models (HAMs) in economics and finance. In: Judd, K.L., Tesfatsion, L. (Eds.), Handbook of Computational Economics, Agent-based Computational Economics. vol. 2, North-Holland, Amsterdam.

Keane, 1990, Testing the rationality of price forecasts: new evidence from panel data, American Economic Review, 80, 714

Lahiri, 2008, Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model, Journal of Econometrics, 144, 325, 10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.02.002

Landefeld, 2008, Taking the pulse of the economy, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22, 193, 10.1257/jep.22.2.193

Laster, 1999, Rational bias in macroeconomic forecasts, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114, 293, 10.1162/003355399555918

Mankiw, 2002, Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117, 1295, 10.1162/003355302320935034

Mankiw, N.G., Reis, R., Wolfers, J., 2003. Disagreement about inflation expectations. Mimeo, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.

Ottaviani, 2006, The strategy of professional forecasting, Journal of Financial Economics, 81, 441, 10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.08.002

Patton, 2007, Testing forecast optimality under unknown loss, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 102, 1172, 10.1198/016214506000001176

Pesaran, 2006, Survey expectations, 715, 10.1016/S1574-0706(05)01014-1

Romer, 2000, Federal Reserve information and the behaviour of interest rates, American Economic Review, 90, 429, 10.1257/aer.90.3.429

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Wallis, 2003, Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts, International Journal of Forecasting, 19, 165, 10.1016/S0169-2070(02)00009-2

Zarnowitz, 1969, The new ASA-NBER survey of forecasts by economic statisticians, The American Statistician, 23, 12, 10.2307/2681682

Zarnowitz, 1993, Twenty-two years of the NBER-ASA quarterly economic outlook surveys: aspects and comparisons of forecasting performance, 11

Zarnowitz, 1987, Consensus and uncertainty in economic prediction, Journal of Political Economy, 95, 591, 10.1086/261473

Zellner, 1986, Biased predictors, rationality and the evaluation of forecasts, Economics Letters, 21, 45, 10.1016/0165-1765(86)90119-9