Experts in emergencies: A framework for understanding scientific advice in crisis contexts

Jasanoff, 2005 Donovan, 2012, Co-production of an institution: Montserrat Volcano Observatory and social dependence on science, Sci. Publ. Pol., 40, 171, 10.1093/scipol/scs078 Cloke, 2009, Ensemble flood forecasting: a review, J. Hydrol., 375, 613, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005 Demeritt, 2013, The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management, Hydrol. Process., 27, 147, 10.1002/hyp.9419 Morss, 2005, Flood risk, uncertainty, and scientific information for decision making - lessons from an interdisciplinary project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86, 1593, 10.1175/BAMS-86-11-1593 Aitsi-Selmi, 2016, Ensuring science is useful, useable and used in global disaster risk reduction and sustainable development: a view through the Sendai framework lens, Palgrave Communications, 2, 1, 10.1057/palcomms.2016.16 Lo, 2017, Health emergency and disaster risk management (Health-EDRM): developing the research field within the Sendai framework paradigm, Int J Disaster Risk Sci, 8, 145, 10.1007/s13753-017-0122-0 2015, Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015-2030 Burton, 1968 Wisner, 2004 Donovan, 2015, Resilient science: the civic epistemology of disaster risk reduction, Sci. Publ. Pol., 43, 363, 10.1093/scipol/scv039 Brown, 2009 Hulme, 2010, Problems with making and governing global kinds of knowledge, Global Environ. Change, 20, 558, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.005 Jasanoff, 1990 Owens, 2015 Leach, 2013, The social and political lives of zoonotic disease models: narratives, science and policy, Soc. Sci. Med., 88, 10, 10.1016/j.socscimed.2013.03.017 Doubleday, 2007, Organizing accountability: co-production of technoscientific and social worlds in a nanoscience laboratory, Area, 39, 166, 10.1111/j.1475-4762.2007.00742.x Boin, 2009, Crisis exploitation: political and policy impacts of framing contests, J. Eur. Publ. Pol., 16, 81, 10.1080/13501760802453221 Jasanoff, 2004 Hilgartner, 2000 Fiske, 1984, Volcanologists, journalists and the concerned local public: a tale of two crises in the Eastern Caribbean Tazieff, 1977, La Soufriere, volcanology and forecasting, Nature, 269, 96, 10.1038/269096a0 Miller, 2008, Civic epistemologies: constituting knowledge and order in political communities, Sociology Compass, 2, 1896, 10.1111/j.1751-9020.2008.00175.x Ansell, 2010, Managing transboundary crises: identifying the building blocks of an effective response system, J. Contingencies Crisis Manag., 18, 195, 10.1111/j.1468-5973.2010.00620.x Nohrstedt, 2013, Advocacy coalitions in crisis resolution: understanding policy dispute in the european volcanic ash cloud crisis, Publ. Adm., 91, 964, 10.1111/padm.12003 Nohrstedt, 2008, The politics of crisis policymaking: chernobyl and Swedish nuclear energy policy, Pol. Stud. J., 36, 257, 10.1111/j.1541-0072.2008.00265.x Nohrstedt, 2010, The logic of policy change after crisis: proximity and subsystem interaction, Risk Hazards Crisis Publ. Pol., 1, 1, 10.2202/1944-4079.1035 Hajer, 2003, A frame in the fields: policymaking and the reinvention of politics Fischer, 2004, Are scientists irrational? Risk assessment in practical reason, 54 Weingart, 1999, Scientific expertise and political accountability: paradoxes of science in politics, Sci. Publ. Pol., 26, 151, 10.3152/147154399781782437 Harris, 2015, Forecast communication through the newspaper part 1: framing the forecaster, Bull. Volcanol., 77, 29, 10.1007/s00445-015-0899-x Critchley, 2008, Public opinion and trust in scientists: the role of the research context, and the perceived motivation of stem cell researchers, Publ. Understand. Sci., 17, 309, 10.1177/0963662506070162 Eiser, 2007, Risk perception and trust in the context of urban brownfields, Environ. Hazards, 7, 150, 10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.05.004 Eiser, 2008, “Trust me, I'm a scientist (not a Developer)”: perceived expertise and motives as predictors of trust in assessment of risk from contaminated land, Risk Anal., 29, 288, 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01131.x Frewer, 2003, The views of scientific experts on how the public conceptualize uncertainty, J. Risk Res., 6, 75, 10.1080/1366987032000047815 Frewer, 2003, Communicating about the risks and benegits of genetically modified foods: the mediating role of trust, Risk Anal., 23, 1117, 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2003.00385.x Benessia, 2017, When the earth shakes and science with it. The management and communication of uncertainty in the L'Aquila earthquake, Futures, 91, 35, 10.1016/j.futures.2016.11.011 De Marchi, 2014, Scientific advice and the case of the L'aquila earthquake, Technikfolgenabschätzung—Theor. Prax, 3, 90, 10.14512/tatup.23.3.90 Hall, 2011, Scientists on trial: at fault?, Nature News, 477, 264, 10.1038/477264a Scolobig, 2014, The co-production of scientific advice and decision making under uncertainty: lessons from the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, Italy. Planet@ Risk, 2, 71 Jordan, 2011 Alexander, 2013, An evaluation of medium-term recovery processes after the 6 April 2009 earthquake in L'Aquila, Central Italy, Environ. Hazards, 12, 60, 10.1080/17477891.2012.689250 Alexander, 2010, The L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009 and Italian Government policy on disaster response, J. Nat. Resour. Pol. Res., 2, 325, 10.1080/19390459.2010.511450 Bretton, 2015, Implications of legal scrutiny processes (including the L'Aquila trial and other recent court cases) for future volcanic risk governance, J Appl. Volcanol., 4, 18, 10.1186/s13617-015-0034-x Imperiale, 2019, Reflections on the L'Aquila trial and the social dimensions of disaster risk, Disaster Prev. Manag.: Int. J., 28, 434, 10.1108/DPM-01-2018-0030 Donovan, 2017, The complex consequences of volcanic warnings: trust, risk perception and experiences of businesses near Mount Zao following the 2015 unrest period, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 27, 57, 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.023 Haynes, 2007, The issue of trust and its influence on risk communication during a volcanic crisis, Bull. Volcanol., 70, 605, 10.1007/s00445-007-0156-z Cutter, 2003, The vulnerability of science and the science of vulnerability, Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr., 93, 1, 10.1111/1467-8306.93101 Guffanti, 2014, 87 Harris, 2015, Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 2: perceptions of uncertainty, Bull. Volcanol., 77, 30, 10.1007/s00445-015-0902-6 Gudmundsson, 2016, Gradual caldera collapse at Bárdarbunga volcano, Iceland, regulated by lateral magma outflow, Science, 353, 10.1126/science.aaf8988 Sigmundsson, 2015, Segmented lateral dyke growth in a rifting event at Bardarbunga volcanic system, Iceland, Nature, 517, 191, 10.1038/nature14111 Pfeffer, 2018, Ground-based measurements of the 2014–2015 Holuhraun volcanic cloud (Iceland), Geosciences, 8, 29, 10.3390/geosciences8010029 Schmidt, 2015, Satellite detection, long‐range transport, and air quality impacts of volcanic sulfur dioxide from the 2014–2015 flood lava eruption at Bárðarbunga (Iceland), J. Geophys. Res.: Atmosphere, 120, 9739, 10.1002/2015JD023638 Donovan, 2018, Sublime encounters: commodifying the experience of the geos, Geo: Geography and Environment, 5 Donovan, 2012, Governing the lithosphere: insights from Eyjafjallajökull concerning the role of scientists in supporting decision-making on active volcanoes, J. Geophys. Res., 117, B03214 Barsotti, 2020, Operational response and hazards assessment during the 2014–2015 volcanic crisis at Bárðarbunga volcano and associated eruption at Holuhraun, Iceland, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 390, 106753, 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2019.106753 Clay, 1999 Donovan, 2014, Science, policy and place in volcanic disasters: insights from Montserrat, Environ. Sci. Pol., 39, 150, 10.1016/j.envsci.2013.08.009 Wadge, 2014, An overview of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat form 2000 to 2010, vol. 39 Young, 1998, Overview of the eruption of Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, 18 July 1995 to December 1997, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3389, 10.1029/98GL01405 Wadge, 2014, vol. 39, 439 Donovan, 2012 Donovan, 2015, Modelling risk and risking models: the diffusive boundary between science and policy in volcanic risk management, Geoforum, 58, 153, 10.1016/j.geoforum.2014.11.005 Haynes, 2008, Whose reality counts? Factors affecting the perception of volcanic risk, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 172, 259, 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.012 Hicks, 2015, Trajectories of social vulnerability during the Soufrière Hills volcanic crisis, Journal of Applied Volcanology, 4, 10, 10.1186/s13617-015-0029-7 Wilkinson, 2015, Beyond the volcanic crisis: co-governance of risk in Montserrat, Journal of Applied Volcanology, 4, 10.1186/s13617-014-0021-7 Gallopín, 2001, Science for the twenty‐first century: from social contract to the scientific core, Int. Soc. Sci. J., 53, 219, 10.1111/1468-2451.00311 Spiegelhalter, 2011, Don't know, can't know: embracing deeper uncertainties when analysing risks, Phil. Trans. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 369, 4730 Eiser, 2015, Risk perceptions and trust following the 2010 and 2011 Icelandic volcanic ash crises, Risk Anal., 35, 332, 10.1111/risa.12275 Oreskes, 1994, Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the earth sciences, Science, 263, 641, 10.1126/science.263.5147.641 Donovan, 2020, When the vertical becomes horizontal: experiencing exploding mountains in borderlands, Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr., 110, 1040 Miller, 2005, New civic epistemologies of quantification: making sense of indicators of local and global sustainability, Sci. Technol. Hum. Val., 30, 403, 10.1177/0162243904273448 Jasanoff, 2014, Serviceable truths: science for action in law and policy symposium: science challenges for law and policy, Tex. Law Rev., 93, 1723 Owens, 2000, “Engaging the public”: information and deliberation in environmental policy, Environ. Plann., 32, 1141, 10.1068/a3330 Cutter, 2015, Global risks: pool knowledge to stem losses from disasters, Nature, 522, 277, 10.1038/522277a Gaillard, 2013, From knowledge to action:Bridging gaps in disaster risk reduction, Prog. Hum. Geogr., 37, 93, 10.1177/0309132512446717 Douglas, 2000, Inductive risk and values in science, Philos. Sci., 559, 10.1086/392855 Owens, 2005, Making a difference? Some perspectives on environmental research and policy, Trans. Inst. Br. Geogr., 30, 287, 10.1111/j.1475-5661.2005.00171.x Sword-Daniels, 2016, Embodied uncertainty: living with complexity and natural hazards, J. Risk Res., 1 Mahony, 2012, Model migrations: mobility and boundary crossings in regional climate prediction, Trans. Inst. Br. Geogr., 37, 197, 10.1111/j.1475-5661.2011.00473.x Wynne, 1994, Environmental models: truth machines of social heuristics?, Globe, 21, 6 Ferguson, 2020, vol. 10, 77482 Ellison, 2020, COVID-19 and the epistemology of epidemiological models at the dawn of AI, Ann. Hum. Biol., 47, 506, 10.1080/03014460.2020.1839132 Beven, 2016, Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication, Hydrol. Sci. J., 61, 1652, 10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761 Donovan, 2019, Critical volcanology? Thinking holistically about risk and uncertainty, Bull. Volcanol., 81, 20, 10.1007/s00445-019-1279-8 Henseler, 2017, Maps of the uncertain: a new approach to communicate scientific ignorance, Innovat. Eur. J. Soc. Sci. Res., 30, 121, 10.1080/13511610.2016.1235496 Jensen, 2008, Scientific uncertainty in news coverage of cancer research: effects of hedging on scientists' and journalists' credibility, Hum. Commun. Res., 34, 347, 10.1111/j.1468-2958.2008.00324.x Covello, 2001, Risk communication: evolution and revolution, Solutions to an Environment in Peril, 164, 178 Covello, 2003, Best practices in public Health risk and crisis communication, J. Health Commun., 8, 5, 10.1080/713851971 Donovan, 2019, Changing the paradigm for risk communication: integrating sciences to understand cultures, Background paper for UNISDR Global Assessment of Risk Eiser, 2012, Risk interpretation and action: a conceptual framework for responses to natural hazards, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 1, 5, 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2012.05.002 McComas, 2006, Defining moments in risk communication research: 1996–2005, J. Health Commun., 11, 75, 10.1080/10810730500461091 McComas, 2008, Risky business: perceived behaviour of local scientists and community support for their research, Risk Anal., 28, 1539, 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01129.x White, 2007, A social judgement approach to trust: people as intuitive detection theorists, 95 Douglas, 2009 Jasanoff, 2003, (No?) Accounting for expertise, Sci. Publ. Pol., 30, 157, 10.3152/147154303781780542 Lentsch, 2011 Ding, 2012, From bench to board: gender differences in university scientists' participation in corporate scientific advisory boards, Australas. Mark. J., 56, 1443 Gieryn, 1983, Boundary-work and the demarcation of science from non-science: strains and interests in professional ideologies of scientists, Am. Socio. Rev., 48, 781, 10.2307/2095325 Oppenheimer, 2010, We told you so! Reflections on the “ashpocalypse, Elements, 6, 205 Alverson, 2000, Reflexive methodology: new vistas for qualitative research, London: Sage. Anderson, RE, & Srinivasan, SS (2003). E-satisfaction and e-loyalty: A contingency fi-amework. Psychology & Marketing, 20, 123 Gergen, 1991 Bourdieu, 2004 Woolgar, 1988, Knowledge and reflexivity: new frontiers in the sociology of knowledge