Sự chuyển giao tỷ giá hối đoái tại Trung Quốc: Một mô hình giá đầu vào-đầu ra chi phí đẩy

Open Economies Review - Tập 31 - Trang 513-528 - 2020
Yuwan Duan1, Yanping Zhao2,3, Jakob de Haan4,5,6
1School of International Trade and Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, China
2School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Shandong, China
3Institue of Marine Economy of Ocean University of China, Shandong, China
4De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
5University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
6CESifo Munich, Germany

Tóm tắt

Dựa trên một mô hình đầu vào-đầu ra chi phí đẩy cho Trung Quốc, chúng tôi ước lượng tỷ lệ chuyển giao tỷ giá hối đoái đến cả giá nội địa và giá xuất khẩu ở cấp ngành. Kết quả thực nghiệm của chúng tôi cho thấy sự giảm giá nhân dân tệ trong lĩnh vực xuất khẩu chế biến phản ứng với sự tăng giá của nhân dân tệ lớn hơn so với lĩnh vực xuất khẩu không chế biến, điều này, lần lượt, lớn hơn sự giảm của chỉ số giá tiêu dùng. Phân tích xuyên ngành của chúng tôi cũng cho thấy rằng những thay đổi tỷ giá hối đoái có tác động thấp nhất đến giá trong các ngành không nhạy cảm với vốn và công nghệ.

Từ khóa

#tỷ giá hối đoái #Trung Quốc #giá nội địa #giá xuất khẩu #mô hình đầu vào-đầu ra #chỉ số giá tiêu dùng

Tài liệu tham khảo

Acemoglu D, Akcigit U, Kerr W (2015) Networks and the macroeconomy: an empirical exploration. NBER Macroecon Annu 30(1):273–335 Aydoğuş O, Değer C, Çalışkan ET, Günal GG (2018) An input-output model of exchange-rate pass-through. Econ Syst Res 30(3):323–336 Barhoumi K (2006) Differences in long run exchange rate pass-through into import prices in developing countries: an empirical investigation. Econ Model 23(6):926–951 Bazzazan F, Batey P (2003) The development and empirical testing of extended input–output price models. Econ Syst Res 15:69–86 Bergin PR, Feenstra RC (2009) Pass-through of exchange rates and competition between floaters and fixers. J Money Credit Bank 41(1):35–70 Berüment H, Taşçı H (2002) Inflationary effect of crude oil prices in Turkey. Physica A 316:568–580 Betts C, Devereux MB (2000) Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market. J Int Econ 50(1):215–244 Bigio S, La’O J (2016) Distortions in production networks. NBER Working Paper 22212 Bouvet F, Ma AC, Van Assche A (2017) Tariff and exchange rate pass-through for Chinese exports: a firm level analysis across customs regimes. China Econ Rev 46:87–96 Bussière M (2013) Exchange rate pass-through to trade prices: the role of nonlinearities and asymmetries. Oxf Bull Econ Stat 75(5):731–758 Bussière M, Chiaie SD, Peltonen TA (2014) Exchange rate pass-through in the global economy: the role of emerging market economies. IMF Econ Rev 62(1):146–178 Bussière M, Gaulier G, Steingress W (2020) Global trade flows: revisiting the exchange rate elasticities. Open Econ Rev 31(1):25–78 Campa JM, Goldberg LS (2002). Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: a macro or micro phenomenon? NBER Working paper no. 8934 Campa JM, Goldberg LS (2005) Exchange rate pass-through into import prices. Rev Econ Stat 87:679–690 Carvalho VM (2014) From micro to macro via production networks. J Econ Perspect 28(4):23–48 Chen X, Cheng LK, Fung KC, Lau LJ, Sung YW, Zhu K, Yang C, Pei J, Duan Y (2012) Domestic value added and employment generated by Chinese exports: a quantitative estimation. China Econ Rev 23:850–864 Cheung Y, Steinkamp S, Westermann F (2020) A tale of two surplus countries: China and Germany. Open Econ Rev 31(1):131–158 Choudhri EU, Hakura DS (2006) Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: does the inflationary environment matter? J Int Money Financ 25:614–639 Choudhri EU, Faruqee H, Hakura DS (2005) Explaining the exchange rate pass-through in different prices. J Int Econ 65(2):349–374 Craighead WD (2020) Intermediate goods and exchange rate disconnect. Open Econ Rev 31(1):113–129 Devereux MB, Dong W, Tomlin B (2017) Importers and exporters in exchange rate pass-through and currency invoicing. J Int Econ 105:187–204 Dixit A (1989) Hysteresis, import penetration, and exchange rate pass-through. Q J Econ 104(2):205–228 Enders A, Enders Z, Hoffmann M (2018) International financial market integration, asset compositions, and the falling exchange rate pass-through. J Int Econ 110:151–175 Fisher E (1989) A model of exchange rate pass-through. J Int Econ 26(1–2):119–137 Folloni G, Miglierina C (1994) Hypothesis of price formation in input–output tables. Econ Syst Res 6:249–264 Frankel J, Parsley D, Wei S-J (2012) Slow pass-through around the world: a new import for developing countries? Open Econ Rev 23(2):213–251 Froot KA, Klemperer PD (1989) Exchange rate pass-through when market share matters. Am Econ Rev 79(4):637–654 Gopinath G, Itskhoki O, Rigobon R (2010) Currency choice and exchange rate pass-through. Am Econ Rev 100(1):304–336 Johnson RC, Noguera G (2012) Accounting for intermediates: production sharing and trade in value added. J Int Econ 86(2):224–236 Li Y, Zhang T (2018) Incomplete exchange rate pass-through: evidence from exchange rate reform in China. Emerg Mark Financ Trade 54:690–706 Li YA, Zhao CC (2016) Price adjustment to exchange rates and forward-looking exporters: evidence from USA–China trade. Rev Int Econ 24(5):1023–1049 Li H, Ma H, Xu Y (2015) How do exchange rate movements affect Chinese exports? A firm-level investigation. J Int Econ 97(1):148–161 López-Villavicencio A, Mignon V (2017) Exchange rate pass-through in emerging countries: do the inflation environment, monetary policy regime and central bank behavior matter? J Int Money Financ 79:20–38 Marazzi M, Sheets N (2007) Declining exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices: The potential role of global factors. J Int Money Financ 26:924–947 Pei J, Oosterhaven J, Dietzenbacher E (2012) How much do exports contribute to China's income growth? Econ Syst Res 24:275–297 Razafindrabe T (2017) Nonlinearity and asymmetry in the exchange rate pass-through: what role for nominal price stickiness? Rev Int Econ 25(4):711–732 Sharify N (2013) Input–output modelling of the effect of implicit subsidies on prices. Econ Model 33:913–917 Shi K, Xu J (2010) Intermediate goods trade and exchange rate pass-through. J Macroecon 32(2):571–583 Shu C, Su X (2009) Exchange rate pass-through in China. China World Econ 17(1):33–46 Taylor JB (2000) Low inflation pass-through and the pricing power of firms. Eur Econ Rev 44:1389–1408 Wu L, Li J, Zhang Z (2013) Inflationary effects of oil-price shocks in an imperfect market: a partial transmission input–output analysis. J Policy Model 35:354–369 Yang C, Dietzenbacher E, Pei J, Chen X, Zhu K, Tang Z (2015) Processing trade biases the measurement of vertical specialization in China. Econ Syst Res 26:60–76