Examining the importance of existing relationships for co-offending: a temporal network analysis in Bogotá, Colombia (2005–2018)

Applied Network Science - Tập 8 - Trang 1-31 - 2023
Alberto Nieto1, Toby Davies1, Hervé Borrion1
1Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London (UCL), London, UK

Tóm tắt

This study aims to improve our understanding of criminal accomplice selection by studying the evolution of co-offending networks—i.e., networks that connect those who commit crimes together. To this end, we tested four growth mechanisms (popularity, reinforcement, reciprocity, and triadic closure) on three components observed in a network connecting criminal investigations ( $$M = 286$$ K) with adult offenders ( $$N = 274$$ K) in Bogotá (Colombia) between 2005 and 2018. The first component had 4286 offenders (component ‘A’), the second 227 (‘B’), and the third component 211 (‘C’). The evolution of these components was examined using temporal information in tandem with discrete choice models and simulations to understand the mechanisms that could explain how these components grew. The results show that they evolved differently during the period of interest. Popularity yielded negative statistically significant coefficients for ‘A’, suggesting that having more connections reduced the odds of connecting with incoming offenders in this network. Reciprocity and reinforcement yielded mixed results as we observed negative statistically significant coefficients in ‘C’ and positive statistically significant coefficients in ‘A’. Moreover, triadic closure produced positive, statistically significant coefficients in all the networks. The results suggest that a combination of growth mechanisms might explain how co-offending networks grow, highlighting the importance of considering offenders’ network-related characteristics when studying accomplice selection. Besides adding evidence about triadic closure as a universal property of social networks, this result indicates that further analyses are needed to understand better how accomplices shape criminal careers.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Ben-Akiva M, Litinas N, Tsunokawa K (1985) Continuous spatial choice: the continuous logit model and distributions of trips and urban densities. Transp Res Part A: General 19(2):119–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/0191-2607(85)90022-6 Bichler G, Malm A (2018) Social network analysis. In: Wortley R, Sidebottom A, Tilley N, Laycock G (eds). Routledge Braga AA, Weisburd D, Turchan B (2018) Focused deterrence strategies and crime control: an updated systematic review and metaanalysis of the empirical evidence. Criminol Public Policy 17(1):205–250 Brantingham PL, Ester M, Frank R, Glässer U, Tayebi MA (2011) Co-offending network mining. In: Counterterrorism and open source intelligence. Springer, pp 73–102 Bright D (2015) Disrupting and dismantling dark networks: lessons from social network analysis and law enforcement simulations. In: Gerdes LM (ed), Illuminating dark networks: the study of clandestine groups and organizations. Cambridge University Press, pp 39-51. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316212639.004 Bright D, Delaney JJ (2013) Evolution of a drug trafficking network: mapping changes in network structure and function across time. Global Crime 14(2–3):238–260 Bright D, Koskinen J, Malm A (2019) Illicit network dynamics: the formation and evolution of a drug trafficking network. J Quant Criminol 35(2):237–258 Bright D, Whelan C (2020) Organised crime and law enforcement: a network perspective. Routledge, London Burt RS (2005) Brokerage and closure: an introduction to social capital. Oxford University Press, Oxford Campana P, Varese F (2020) Studying organized crime networks: data sources, boundaries and the limits of structural measures. Social networks Carrington PJ (2002) Group crime in Canada. Can J Criminol 44:277 Carrington PJ (2014) Co-offending. In: Bruinsma G, Weisburd D (eds), Encyclopedia of criminology and criminal justice. Springer New York, pp 548–558. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5690-2_108 Cavallaro L, Ficara A, De Meo P, Fiumara G, Catanese S, Bagdasar O, Liotta A (2020) Disrupting resilient criminal networks through data analysis: the case of Sicilian Mafia. Plos one 15(8):e0236476 Charette Y, Papachristos AV (2017) The network dynamics of cooffending careers. Soc Netw 51:3–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socnet.2016.12.005 Coleman JS (1988) Social capital in the creation of human capital. Am J Sociol 94:S95–S120. https://doi.org/10.1086/228943 Cordeiro M, Sarmento RP, Brazdil P, Gama J (2018) Evolving networks and social network analysis methods and techniques. Soc Media J: Trends Connect Implications 101(2) Cornish DB, Clarke RV (2002) Crime as a rational choice. Bridging the past to the future. Criminological theories, pp 77–96 Diviák T, van Nassau CS, Dijkstra JK, Snijders TA (2022) Dynamics and disruption: structural and individual changes in two dutch jihadi networks after police interventions. Soc Netw 70:364–374 Easley D, Kleinberg J (2010) Networks, crowds, and markets, vol 8. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Englefield A, Ariel B (2017) Searching for influencing actors in cooffending networks: the recruiter. Int’l J Soc Sci Stud 5:24 Faust K, Tita GE (2019) Social networks and crime: pitfalls and promises for advancing the field. Annu Rev Criminol 2:99–122 Feinberg F, Bruch E, Braun M, Falk BH, Fefferman N, Feit EM, et al (2020) Choices in networks: a research framework. Mark Lett 31(4):349–359 Felbab-Brown V (2013) Focused deterrence, selective targeting, drug trafficking and organised crime: concepts and practicalities. Selective targeting, drug trafficking and organised crime: concepts and practicalities Feld SL (1981) The focused organization of social ties. Am J Sociol 86(5):1015–1035 Felson M (2003) The process of co-offending. Crime Prev Stud 16:149–168 Ficara A, Fiumara G, Catanese S, De Meo P, Liu X (2022) The whole is greater than the sum of the parts: a multilayer approach on criminal networks. Future Internet 14(5):123 Ficara A, Fiumara G, Meo PD, Catanese S (2021) Multilayer network analysis: the identification of key actors in a Sicilian Mafia operation. In: International conference on future access enablers of ubiquitous and intelligent infrastructures, pp 120–134 Gambetta D (2011) Codes of the underworld. In: Codes of the underworld. Princeton University Press, Princeton Gehrke J, Korn F, Srivastava D (2001) On computing correlated aggregates over continual data streams. ACM SIGMOD Rec 30(2):13–24 Gouldner AW (1960) The norm of reciprocity: a preliminary statement. Am Soc Rev, pp 161–178 Granovetter MS (1973) The strength of weak ties. Am J Sociol 78(6):1360–1380 Grund T, Morselli C (2017) Overlapping crime: stability and specialization of co-offending relationships. Soc Netw 51:14–22 Grund TU, Densley JA (2015) Ethnic homophily and triad closure: mapping internal gang structure using exponential random graph models. J Contemp Crim Justice 31(3):354–370 Hedström P, Swedberg R (1998) Social mechanisms: an introductory essay. Social mechanisms: an analytical approach to social theory, pp 1–31 Hochstetler A (2014) Co-offending and offender decision-making. In: Bruinsma G, Weisburd D (eds) Encyclopedia of criminology and criminal justice. Springer New York, pp 570–581. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5690-2_111 Holland PW, Leinhardt S (1971) Transitivity in structural models of small groups. Comp Group Stud 2(2):107–124 Hosmer DW Jr, Lemeshow S, Sturdivant RX (2013) Applied logistic regression, vol 398. Wiley, London INPEC (2021) Registro de la población privada de la libertad. Retrieved 17-05-2021, from https://www.inpec.gov.co/registro-de-la-poblacion-privada-de-la-libertad Iwanski N, Frank R (2013) The evolution of a drug co-arrest network. In: Crime and networks. Routledge, pp 64–92 King G, Zeng L (2001) Logistic regression in rare events data. Polit Anal 9(2):137–163 Kivelä M, Arenas A, Barthelemy M, Gleeson JP, Moreno Y, Porter MA (2014) Multilayer networks. J Complex Netw 2(3):203–271. https://doi.org/10.1093/comnet/cnu016 Malm A, Bichler G (2011) Networks of collaborating criminals: assessing the structural vulnerability of drug markets. J Res Crime Delinq 48(2):271–297. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427810391535 McCarthy B, Hagan J (2001) When crime pays: capital, competence, and criminal success. Soc Forces 79(3):1035–1060 McCarthy B, Hagan J, Cohen LE (1998) Uncertainty, cooperation, and crime: understanding the decision to co-offend. Soc Forces 77(1):155–184. https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/77.1.155 McFadden D (1974) Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In: Zarembka P (ed) Frontiers in econometrics. Academic Press, New York, pp 105–142 McFadden D (1981) Econometric models of probabilistic choice. Structural analysis of discrete data with econometric applications, 198272 McGloin JM, Nguyen H (2012) It was my idea: considering the instigation of co-offending. Criminology 50(2):463–494 McGloin JM, Piquero AR (2010) On the relationship between co-offending network redundancy and offending versatility. J Res Crime Delinq 47(1):63–90 McGloin JM, Sullivan CJ, Piquero AR, Bacon S (2008) Investigating the stability of co-offending and co-offenders among a sample of youthful offenders. Criminology 46(1):155–188 McGloin JM, Thomas KJ (2016) Incentives for collective deviance: group size and changes in perceived risk, cost, and reward. Criminology 54(3):459–486 Mitzenmacher M (2004) A brief history of generative models for power law and lognormal distributions. Internet Math 1(2):226–251 Molm LD (1997) Coercive power in social exchange. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Morselli C (2009) Inside criminal networks, vol 8. Springer, Berlin Morselli C, Giguère C, Petit K (2007) The efficiency/security trade-off in criminal networks. Soc Netw 29(1):143–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socnet.2006.05.001 Morselli C, Petit K (2007) Law-enforcement disruption of a drug importation network. Global Crime 8(2):109–130 Newman M (2018) Networks. Oxford University Press, Oxford Nieto A, Davies T, Borrion H (2022) “Offending with the accomplices of my accomplices’’: evidence and implications regarding triadic closure in co-offending networks. Soc Netw 70:325–333 Opsahl T, Hogan B (2011) Modeling the evolution of continuously-observed networks: communication in a facebook-like community. arXiv preprint arXiv:1010.2141 Overgoor J, Benson AR, Ugander J (2019) Choosing to grow a graph: modeling network formation as discrete choice. The World Wide Web Conference Overgoor J, Pakapol Supaniratisai G, Ugander J (2020) Scaling choice models of relational social data. In: Proceedings of the 26th ACM SIGKDD international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining, pp 1990–1998 Papachristos AV (2011) The coming of a networked criminology. Adv Criminol Theory 17:101–140 Plickert G, Côté RR, Wellman B (2007) It’s not who you know, it’s how you know them: who exchanges what with whom? Soc Netw 29(3):405–429 Reiss AJ (1986) Co-offending influences on criminal careers. Criminal careers and career criminals Reiss AJ (1988) Co-offending and criminal careers. Crime Justice 10:117–170. https://doi.org/10.1086/449145 Robins G (2009) Understanding individual behaviors within covert networks: the interplay of individual qualities, psychological predispositions, and network effects. Trends Organized Crime 12(2):166–187. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12117-008-9059-4 Sarnecki J (2001) Delinquent networks: youth co-offending in Stockholm. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Simonsohn U, Simmons JP, Nelson LD (2020) Specification curve analysis. Nat Hum Behav 4(11):1208–1214 Simonson I, Tversky A (1992) Choice in context: tradeoff contrast and extremeness aversion. J Mark Res 29(3):281–295 Smith TB (2021) Gang crackdowns and offender centrality in a countywide co-offending network: a networked evaluation of operation triple beam. J Crim Just 73:101755 Snijders TA, Van de Bunt GG, Steglich CE (2010) Introduction to stochastic actor-based models for network dynamics. Soc Netw 32(1):44–60 Stadtfeld C, Block P (2017) Interactions, actors, and time: dynamic network actor models for relational events. Sociol Sci 4(14):318–352. https://doi.org/10.15195/v4.a14 Thrasher FM (1963) The gang: a study of 1313 gangs in Chicago. University of Chicago Press Train KE (2009) Discrete choice methods with simulation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Tremblay P (1993) Searching for suitable co-offenders. Routine activity and rational choice, vol. 5, pp 17–36 van Mastrigt SB (2017) Co-offending and co-offender selection. The Oxford handbook of offender decision making, 6, 338. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199338801.013.21 Van Mastrigt SB, Farrington DP (2011) Prevalence and characteristics of co-offending recruiters. Justice Q 28(2):325–359 Warr M (1996) Organization and instigation in delinquent groups. Criminology 34(1):11–37 Warr M (2002) Companions in crime: the social aspects of criminal conduct. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Wasserman S, Faust K (1994) Social network analysis: methods and applications, vol 8. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Weerman FM (2003) Co-offending as social exchange: explaining characteristics of co-offending. Br J Criminol 43(2):398–416. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjc/43.2.398 Weerman FM (2014) Theories of co-offending. Encyclopedia of criminology and criminal justice 5173–5184. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5690-2_110