Sự phát triển của tần suất và cường độ của hiện tượng mưa lớn và sóng thần đồng thời trên quy mô toàn cầu: Những tác động đối với lũ kết hợp
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Arns, 2020, Non-linear Interaction Modulates Global Extreme Sea Levels, Coastal Flood Exposure, and Impacts, Nat. Commun., 11, 1, 10.1038/s41467-020-15752-5
Bevacqua, 2017, Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Compound Events via Pair-Copula Constructions: Analysis of Floods in Ravenna (Italy), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701, 10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017
Bevacqua, 2019, Higher Probability of Compound Flooding from Precipitation and Storm Surge in Europe under Anthropogenic Climate Change, Sci. Adv., 5, 5531, 10.1126/sciadv.aaw5531
Bevacqua, , Brief Communication: The Role of Using Precipitation or River Discharge Data when Assessing Global Coastal Compound Flooding, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765, 10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020
Bevacqua, , More Meteorological Events that Drive Compound Coastal Flooding Are Projected under Climate Change, Commun. Earth Environ., 1, 10.1038/s43247-020-00044-z
Booth, 2016, Comparing hurricane and Extratropical Storm Surge for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coast of the United States for 1979-2013, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094004
Field, 2012, Changes in Climate Extremes and Their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, 109, 10.1017/CBO9781139177245
Chan, 2012, Flood Risk in Asia's Urban Mega-Deltas, Environ. Urbanization Asia, 3, 41, 10.1177/097542531200300103
Couasnon, 2020, Measuring Compound Flood Potential from River Discharge and Storm Surge Extremes at the Global Scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489, 10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020
Dong, 2021, Attribution of Extreme Precipitation with Updated Observations and CMIP6 Simulations, J. Clim., 34, 871, 10.1175/jcli-d-19-1017.1
Dong, 2019, Precipitable Water and CAPE Dependence of Rainfall Intensities in China, Clim. Dyn., 52, 3357, 10.1007/s00382-018-4327-8
Emanuel, 2017, Assessing the Present and Future Probability of Hurricane Harvey's Rainfall, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 12681, 10.1073/pnas.1716222114
Evans, 2003, Objective Indicators of the Life Cycle Evolution of Extratropical Transition for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 909, 10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0909:oiotlc>2.0.co;2
Fatichi, 2009, A Comprehensive Analysis of Changes in Precipitation Regime in Tuscany, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 1883, 10.1002/joc.1921
Frank, 2001, Effects of Vertical Wind Shear on the Intensity and Structure of Numerically Simulated Hurricanes, Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2249, 10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2249:eovwso>2.0.co;2
Gemmer, 2011, Trends in Precipitation Extremes in the Zhujiang River basin, South China, J. Clim., 24, 750, 10.1175/2010jcli3717.1
Gori, 2020, Tropical Cyclone Compound Flood Hazard Assessment: From Investigating Drivers to Quantifying Extreme Water Levels, Earth’s Future, 8, 10.1029/2020ef001660
Gu, 2017, Nonstationarity in Timing of Extreme Precipitation across China and Impact of Tropical Cyclones, Glob. Planet. Change, 149, 153, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.12.019
Hamed, 1998, A Modified Mann-Kendall Trend Test for Autocorrelated Data, J. Hydrol., 204, 182, 10.1016/s0022-1694(97)00125-x
Hawcroft, 2012, How Much Northern Hemisphere Precipitation Is Associated with Extratropical Cyclones?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 1, 10.1029/2012gl053866
Hawcroft, 2018, Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Cyclones, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 124006, 10.1088/1748-9326/aaed59
Hendry, 2019, Assessing the Characteristics and Drivers of Compound Flooding Events Around the UK Coast, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3117, 10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019
2017
Horsburgh, 2007, Tide-surge Interaction and its Role in the Distribution of Surge Residuals in the North Sea, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 112, 1, 10.1029/2006jc004033
Huntingford, 2014, Potential Influences on the United Kingdom's Floods of winter 2013/14, Nat. Clim Change, 4, 769, 10.1038/nclimate2314
Iannuccilli, 2021, Extreme Precipitation Events and Their Relationships with Circulation Types in Italy, Int. J. Climatol, 1, 10.1002/joc.7109
Ikeuchi, 2017, Compound Simulation of Fluvial Floods and Storm Surges in a Global Coupled River-Coast Flood Model: Model Development and its Application to 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, 1847, 10.1002/2017ms000943
Jane, 2020, Multivariate Statistical Modelling of the Drivers of Compound Flood Events in South Florida, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2681, 10.5194/nhess-20-2681-2020
Kalnay, 1996, The NCEP/NCAR 40-year Reanalysis Project, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437, 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:tnyrp>2.0.co;2
Karim, 2008, Impacts of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Cyclonic Storm Surge Floods in Bangladesh, Glob. Environ. Change, 18, 490, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.05.002
Khanam, 2021, Impact of Compound Flood Event on Coastal Critical Infrastructures Considering Current and Future Climate, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 587, 10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021
Khouakhi, 2017, Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to Rainfall at the Global Scale, J. Clim., 30, 359, 10.1175/jcli-d-16-0298.1
Klotzbach, 2018, Continental U.S. Hurricane Landfall Frequency and Associated Damage: Observations and Future Risks, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 1359, 10.1175/bams-d-17-0184.1
Kunkel, 2020, Precipitation Extremes: Trends and Relationships with Average Precipitation and Precipitable Water in the Contiguous United States, J. Appl. Meteorology Climatology, 59, 125, 10.1175/jamc-d-19-0185.1
Kurniadi, 2021, Independent ENSO and IOD Impacts on Rainfall Extremes over Indonesia, Int. J. Climatol, 41, 3640, 10.1002/joc.7040
Lai, 2020, Greater Flood Risks in Response to Slowdown of Tropical Cyclones over the Coast of China, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 14751, 10.1073/pnas.1918987117
Leonard, 2014, A Compound Event Framework for Understanding Extreme Impacts, Wires Clim. Change, 5, 113, 10.1002/wcc.252
Li, 2015, Future Joint Probability Behaviors of Precipitation Extremes across China: Spatiotemporal Patterns and Implications for Flood and Drought Hazards, Glob. Planet. Change, 124, 107, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.11.012
Li, 2013, GCMs-Based Spatiotemporal Evolution of Climate Extremes during the 21stcentury in China, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 11017, 10.1002/jgrd.50851
Lian, 2013, Joint Impact of Rainfall and Tidal Level on Flood Risk in a Coastal City with a Complex River Network: A Case Study of Fuzhou City, China, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 679, 10.5194/hess-17-679-2013
Lim, 2007, Southern Hemisphere winter Extratropical Cyclone Characteristics and Vertical Organization Observed with the ERA-40 Data in 1979-2001, J. Clim., 20, 2675, 10.1175/jcli4135.1
Liu, 2017, The Present-Day Simulation and Twenty-First-century Projection of the Climatology of Extratropical Transition in the North Atlantic, J. Clim., 30, 2739, 10.1175/jcli-d-16-0352.1
Mawdsley, 2016, Spatial and Temporal Variability and Long-Term Trends in Skew Surges Globally, Front. Mar. Sci., 3, 1, 10.3389/fmars.2016.00029
Menne, 2012, An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily Database, J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech., 29, 897, 10.1175/jtech-d-11-00103.1
Milly, 2008, Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management?, Science, 319, 573, 10.1126/science.1151915
Moftakhari, 2017, Compounding Effects of Sea Level Rise and Fluvial Flooding, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 9785, 10.1073/pnas.1620325114
Moftakhari, 2019, Linking Statistical and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Compound Flood hazard Assessment in Tidal Channels and Estuaries, Adv. Water Resour., 128, 28, 10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.04.009
Muis, 2018, Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Global Coastal Flooding, Earth's Future, 6, 1311, 10.1029/2018ef000909
Neumann, 2015, Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment, PLoS ONE, 10, 10.1371/journal.pone.0118571
Pawlowicz, 2002, Classical Tidal Harmonic Analysis Including Error Estimates in MATLAB Using T_TIDE, Comput. Geosciences, 28, 929, 10.1016/s0098-3004(02)00013-4
Pinto, 2014, Large-scale Dynamics Associated with Clustering of Extratropical Cyclones Affecting Western Europe, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 13704, 10.1002/2014jd022305
Raymond, 2020, Understanding and Managing Connected Extreme Events, Nat. Clim. Chang., 10, 611, 10.1038/s41558-020-0790-4
Ridder, 2020, Global Hotspots for the Occurrence of Compound Events, Nat. Commun., 11, 1, 10.1038/s41467-020-20502-8
Sen, 1968, Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall’s Tau, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 63, 1379, 10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
She, 2015, Investigating the Variation and Non-stationarity in Precipitation Extremes Based on the Concept of Event-Based Extreme Precipitation, J. Hydrol., 530, 785, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.10.029
Svensson, 2002, Dependence between Extreme Sea Surge, River Flow and Precipitation in Eastern Britain, Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1149, 10.1002/joc.794
Svensson, 2004, Dependence between Sea Surge, River Flow and Precipitation in South and West Britain, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 973, 10.5194/hess-8-973-2004
Towey, 2018, Track and Circulation Analysis of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones that Cause strong Precipitation and Streamflow Events in the New York City Watershed, J. Hydrometeorology, 19, 1027, 10.1175/jhm-d-17-0199.1
Tramblay, 2020, Observed Changes in Flood hazard in Africa, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 1040b5, 10.1088/1748-9326/abb90b
Van Den Hurk, 2015, Analysis of a Compounding Surge and Precipitation Event in the Netherlands, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 035001, 10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/035001
Vousdoukas, 2018, Global Probabilistic Projections of Extreme Sea Levels Show Intensification of Coastal Flood hazard, Nat. Commun., 9, 2360, 10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w
Wahl, 2015, Increasing Risk of Compound Flooding from Storm Surge and Rainfall for Major US Cities, Nat. Clim Change, 5, 1093, 10.1038/nclimate2736
Wang, 2019, Forecast and Service Performance on Rapidly Intensification Process of Typhoons Rammasun (2014) and Hato (2017), Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev., 8, 18, 10.1016/j.tcrr.2019.07.002
Ward, 2018, Dependence between High Sea-Level and High River Discharge Increases Flood hazard in Global Deltas and Estuaries, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 10.1088/1748-9326/aad400
Weisse, 2012, Changing North Sea Storm Surge Climate: An Increasing hazard?, Ocean Coastal Manag., 68, 58, 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2011.09.005
Williams, 2016, Tide and Skew Surge independence: New Insights for Flood Risk, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 6410, 10.1002/2016gl069522
Wong, 2004, Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Vertical Wind Shear, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1859, 10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<1859:tciivw>2.0.co;2
Woodworth, 2016, Towards a Global Higher-Frequency Sea Level Dataset, Geosci. Data J., 3, 50, 10.1002/gdj3.42
Xu, 2018, Joint Risk of Rainfall and Storm Surges during Typhoons in a Coastal City of Haidian Island, China, Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 15, 10.3390/ijerph15071377
Xu, 2019, Compound Effects of Rainfall and Storm Tides on Coastal Flooding Risk, Stoch Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 33, 1249, 10.1007/s00477-019-01695-x
Yanase, 2015, Idealized Numerical Experiments on Cyclone Development in the Tropical, Subtropical, and Extratropical Environments, J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 3699, 10.1175/jas-d-15-0051.1
Yanase, 2019, Parameter Sweep Experiments on a Spectrum of Cyclones with Diabatic and Baroclinic Processes, J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 1917, 10.1175/jas-d-18-0232.1
You, 2011, Changes in Daily Climate Extremes in China and Their Connection to the Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation during 1961-2003, Clim. Dyn., 36, 2399, 10.1007/s00382-009-0735-0
Yu, 2019, Assessing the Potential Highest Storm Tide hazard in Taiwan Based on 40-year Historical Typhoon Surge Hindcasting, Atmosphere, 10, 10.3390/atmos10060346
Zhai, 2005, Trends in Total Precipitation and Frequency of Daily Precipitation Extremes over China, J. Clim., 18, 1096, 10.1175/jcli-3318.1
Zhang, , Is the Pearl River basin, China, Drying or Wetting? Seasonal Variations, Causes and Implications, Glob. Planet. Change, 166, 48, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.04.005
Zhang, 2013, Copula-based Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Precipitation Extremes in China, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 1140, 10.1002/joc.3499
Zhang, , Dominant Role of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the Recent Decadal Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 354, 10.1002/2017gl076397
Zhang, , Urbanization Exacerbated the Rainfall and Flooding Caused by hurricane Harvey in Houston, Nature, 563, 384, 10.1038/s41586-018-0676-z
Zhang, 2010, Tide-surge Interaction Intensified by the Taiwan Strait, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 115, 1, 10.1029/2009jc005762
Zhang, 2005, Trends in Middle East Climate Extreme Indices from 1950 to 2003, J. Geophys. Res. Atmospheres, 110, 1, 10.1029/2005jd006181
Zhang, 2011, Indices for Monitoring Changes in Extremes Based on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data, Wires Clim. Change, 2, 851, 10.1002/wcc.147
Zheng, 2013, Quantifying the Dependence between Extreme Rainfall and Storm Surge in the Coastal Zone, J. Hydrol., 505, 172, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.09.054