Đánh giá tác động của các biện pháp quản lý thay đổi thời điểm transplanted và nâng cao cửa thoát nước trong các vùng trồng lúa dưới các điều kiện khí hậu trong tương lai bằng cách sử dụng các mô hình APEX-Paddy và SWAT kết hợp

Paddy and Water Environment - Tập 19 - Trang 553-567 - 2021
Dong-Hyeon Kim1, Hakkwan Kim2, Taeil Jang3
1Department of Rural Construction Engineering, Jeonbuk National University, Jeonju-si, Republic of Korea
2Graduate School of International Agricultural Technology and Institutes of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University, Pyeongchang, Republic of Korea
3Department of Rural Construction Engineering and Institute of Agricultural Science & Technology, Jeonbuk National University, Jeonju-si, Republic of Korea

Tóm tắt

Dự đoán sự thích ứng và phản ứng của nguồn nước nông nghiệp với biến đổi khí hậu là một thách thức. Khi khí hậu tương lai thay đổi, môi trường nông nghiệp sẽ bị biến đổi, do đó cần có các đánh giá thực hành bảo tồn nông nghiệp (ACP) như một chiến lược phản ứng để giảm ô nhiễm nước và bảo tồn năng suất cây trồng trong các lưu vực nông nghiệp. Nghiên cứu này đã sử dụng các mô hình SWAT và APEX-Paddy kết hợp (SWAPX) để đánh giá các thực hành bảo tồn đối với thủy văn, chất lượng nước và năng suất cây trồng trong các lưu vực chủ yếu là ruộng lúa cho ba giai đoạn tương lai (2020, 2030 và 2040). Chúng tôi đã ước tính thủy văn và chất lượng nước trong tương lai bằng mô hình SWAPX đã được xác thực tốt và kịch bản RCP 8.5 cho 10 mô hình tuần hoàn chung (GCMs) và đánh giá khả năng của chiến lược quản lý thay đổi thời gian transplanted (TDS) và nâng cao cửa thoát nước (DOR) nhằm giảm dòng chảy bề mặt và tổng lượng nitơ (T-N) và bảo tồn năng suất lúa. Dòng chảy bề mặt trong các kịch bản khí hậu tương lai cao hơn so với nền (2008–2019), và tải trọng T-N được dự đoán sẽ tăng nhanh chóng trong tương lai gần và sau đó giảm dần cho đến những năm 2040 (2041–2049). Kịch bản R40 (kết hợp TDS và DOR), là kịch bản hiệu quả nhất, đã giảm dòng chảy bề mặt 9.2%, tải trọng T-N 13.6%, và năng suất nước 47.7% so với kịch bản CB (nền). Khi các ACP được áp dụng cho toàn bộ diện tích ruộng lúa trong lưu vực, tỷ lệ giảm dòng chảy bề mặt và tải trọng T-N lần lượt là 4.1% và 7.4%. Kết quả này cho thấy hiệu quả của ACP trên quy mô không gian-thời gian và gợi ý rằng hiệu quả của ACP, diện tích áp dụng, và vị trí tại các vùng mục tiêu là những yếu tố quan trọng cần xem xét khi xây dựng kế hoạch cải thiện chất lượng nước và năng suất cây trồng ở quy mô lưu vực.

Từ khóa

#biến đổi khí hậu #thực hành bảo tồn nông nghiệp #thủy văn #chất lượng nước #năng suất cây trồng #mô hình SWAT #mô hình APEX-Paddy

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