Evaluating the operational resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises to flooding using a computational modelling and simulation approach: a case study of the 2007 flood in Tewkesbury

Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences - Tập 378 Số 2168 - Trang 20190210 - 2020
Graham Coates1, Meshal Alharbi2, Chunhui Li2, S Ahilan3, Nigel Wright4
1School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne NE1 7RU, UK
2Department of Computer Science, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, UK
3School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds, Leeds L62 9JT, UK
4School of Architecture, Design & Built Environment, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham NG1 4FQ, UK

Tóm tắt

The resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to disruptive events is significant as this highly prevalent category of business forms the economic backbone in developed countries. This article provides an overview of the application of a computational modelling and simulation approach to evaluate SMEs' operational resilience to flooding based on combinations of structural and procedural mitigation measures that may be implemented to improve their premises' resistance to flooding and safeguard their business continuity. The approach integrates flood modelling and simulation with agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) within a modelled geographical environment. SMEs are modelled as agents based on findings of semi-structured interviews with SMEs that have experienced flooding or are at risk of flooding. In this paper, the ABMS has been applied to a new case study of the major flood event of 2007 in Tewkesbury. Furthermore, to enable an evaluation of the operational resilience of manufacturing SMEs in terms of the relative effectiveness of flood mitigation measures, a new coefficient based on production loss is introduced. Results indicate structural mitigation measures are more effective than procedural measures. While this result is intuitive, the approach provides a means of evaluating the relative effectiveness of combinations of mitigation measures that SMEs may implement to enhance their operational resilience to flooding. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Urban flood resilience’.

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Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences

Tập 378 Số 2168

20190210

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