Estimation of total discharges of volcanic ash using atmospheric-transport models

Pleiades Publishing Ltd - Tập 9 - Trang 30-47 - 2015
K. B. Moiseenko1, N. A. Malik2
1Obukhov Institute of Physics of the Atmosphere, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
2Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii, Russia

Tóm tắt

We propose a method for calculating the total mass and grain-size composition of the ash that enters the atmosphere during explosive eruptions based on direct numerical modeling of transport and precipitation of ash particles and measurements of deposited mass in the ashfall area. The solution reduces to an overdetermined problem in a single parameter, viz., discharge rate as estimated by least squares from the minimal prior information on wind field structure and discharge heights. The example we consider in this study is the explosive event of January 13, 2011 on Kizimen Volcano accompanied by emission of pyroclastic products to heights of 6–9 km a.s.l. with subsequent propagation of the downwind plume to distances on the order of a few hundred kilometers. The ultimate estimate for the emitted volume (0.68–1.67 million tons) is in overall agreement with calculations made using the isopach method along with the Fedotov nomogram based on data on the eruptive cloud height and wind velocity. It is shown that meso-scale (2–200 km) atmospheric disturbances above mountains exert the controlling influence on the conditions of transfer/deposition of ash particles; this influence should be taken into account in order to derive correct estimates for emission mass and the role of wind-caused gravity differentiation of ash material during the formation of volcanogenic deposits.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Bonadonna, C., Ernst, G.G.J., and Sparks, R.S.J., Thickness variations and volume estimates of tephra fall deposits: the importance of particle Reynolds number, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 1998, vol. 81, pp. 173–187. Bonadonna, C., Macedonio, G., and Sparks, R.S.J., Numerical modelling of tephra fallout associated with dome collapses and Vulcanian explosions: application to hazard assessment on Montserrat, in The Eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999, Druitt, T.H. and Kokelaar, B.P., Eds., London: Geological Society, 2002, pp. 517–537. Bonadonna, C. and Houghton, B.F., Total grain-size distribution and volume of tephra-fall deposits, Bull. Volcanol., 2005, vol. 67, pp. 441–456. Bonasia, R., Macedonio, G., Costa, A., et al., Numerical inversion and analysis of tephra fallout deposits from the 472 AD sub-Plinian eruption at Vesuvius (Italy) through a new best-fit procedure, J. Volcanol. Geotherm Res., 2009, vol. 189, pp. 238–246. Brown, R.J., Bonadonna, C., and Durant, A.J., A review of volcanic ash aggregation, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 2012, vol. 45–46, pp. 65–78. Bursik, M., Tephra dispersal, Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 1998, vol. 145, pp. 115–144. Byrne, M.A., Laing, A., and Connor, C.B., Predicting tephra dispersion with a mesoscale atmospheric model and a particle fall model: Application to Cerro Negro volcano, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 2007, vol. 46, pp. 121–135. Churikova, T., Worner, G., Eichelberger, J., and Ivanov, B.V., Minor- and trace element zoning in plagioclase from Kizimen Volcano, Kamchatka, in Volcanism and Subduction the Kamchatka Region, Eichelberger, J., et al., Eds., Washington, 2007, pp. 303–324. Connor, L.J. and Connor, C.B., Inversion is the key to dispersion: understanding eruption dynamics by inverting tephra fallout, in Statistics in Volcanology, Mader, H.M., Cole, S.G., Connor, C.B., and Connor, L.J., Eds., Special Publications of IAVCEI, Geological Society, London, 2006, pp. 231–242 Costa, A., Dell’Erba, F., Di Vito, M.A., et al., Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), Bull. Volcanol., 2009, vol. 71, pp. 259–273. Dubik, Yu.M. and Menyailov, I.A., A new phase in the eruptive activity of Bezymyannyi Volcano, in Vulkany i izverzheniya (Volcanoes and Eruptions), Moscow: Nauka, 1969, pp. 38–77. Evans, J.R., Huntoon, J.E., Rose, W.I., et al., Particle sizes of andesitic ash fallout from vertical eruptions and copyroclastic flow clouds, Volcán de Colima, Mexico, Geology, 2009, vol. 37(10), pp. 935–938. Fedotov, S.A., Estimates of heat and pyroclastics transport by volcanic eruptions and fumaroles based on the height of their jets and clouds, Vulkanol. Seismol., 1982, no. 4, pp. 3–28. Firstov, P.P., The acoustic and seismic waves that accompanied the 1983–1985 eruption of Bezymyannyi Volcano, Vulkanol. Seismol., 1988, no. 4, pp. 3–28. Firstov, P.P. and Tristanov, A.B., The generation of wave disturbances in the atmosphere during eruptions of pyroclastic flows and powerful explosive activity of andesitic volcanoes, Materialy ezhegodnoi konferentsii, posvyashchennoi Dnyu vulkanologa (Proc. annual conference devoted to Volcanolosist’s Day), Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii: IViS DVO RAN, 2010, pp. 50–59. Fierstein, J. and Nathenson, M., Another look at the calculation of fallout tephra volumes, Bull. Volcanol., 1992, vol. 54, pp. 156–167. Froggatt, P.C., Review of methods of estimating rhyolitic tephra volumes; applications to the Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 1982, vol. 14, pp. 301–318. Garbuzova, V.T. and Sobolevskaya, O.V., Seismicity in the area of Kizimen Volcano in 1996–2007, in Geofizicheskii monitoring i problemy seismicheskoi bezopasnosti Dal’nego Vostoka Rossii (Geophysical Monitoring and Problems of Seismic Safety for the Russian Far East), vol. 1, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii: GS RAN, 2008, pp. 64–67. Girina, O.A., Pyroclastic deposits due to the October 1984 eruption of Bezymyannyi Volcano, Vulkanol. Seismol., 1990, no. 3, pp. 82–91. Girina, O.A., Convective gravity differentiation of pyroclastics produced by andesitic volcanoes, Litosfera, 2010, no. 3, pp. 135–144. Girina, O.A., Manevich, A.G., Mel’nikov, D.V., et al., The 2011 activity of Kamchatka volcanoes, in Vulkanizm i svyazannye s nim protsessy (Volcanism and Related Processes), Materials of the regional conference devoted to Volcanologist’s Day, 50 years of the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii, March 29–30, 2012, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii: IViS DVO RAN, 2012a, pp. 28–33. Girina, O.A., Nuzhdaev, A.A., Manevich, A.G., and Ushakov, S.V., The 2010–2012 eruption of Kizimen Volcano as reported by the KVERT team, in Vulkanizm i svyazannye s nim protsessy (Volcanism and Related Processes), Materials of the regional conference devoted to Volcanologist’s Day, 50 years of the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii, March 29–30, 2012, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii: IViS DVO RAN, 2012b, p. 10. Gushchenko, I.I., Peply Severnoi Kamchatki (Ashes of Northern Kamchatka), Moscow: Nauka, 1965. Kaminski, E. and Jaupart, C., The size distribution of pyroclasts and the fragmentation sequence in explosive volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res., 1998, vol. 103(B12), pp. 29759–29779. Kir’yanov, V.Yu. and Rozhkov, G.F., The grain-size composition of tephra produced by major Holocene eruptions of Kamchatka volcanoes, Vulkanol. Seismol., 1989, no. 3, pp. 16–29. Kozhevnikov, V.N., Vozmushchenie atmosfery pri obtekanii gor (Atmospheric Disturbances during Flow around Mountains), Moscow: Nauchnyi Mir, 1999. Kozhevnikov, V.N. and Moiseenko, K.B., Modeling flow around mountains by a current with height-varying parameters, Izv. RAN, Fizika Atmosfery i Okeana, 2004, vol. 40, no. 2, pp. 166–178. Legros, F., Minimum volume of tephra fallout deposit estimated from a single isopach, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 2000, vol. 96, pp. 25–32. Macedonio, G., Costa, A., and Longo, A., A computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard, Computers and Geosciences, 2005, vol. 31(7), pp. 837–845. Makhmudov, E.R.., Firstov, P.P., and Kozhevnikova, Yu. T., Seismic effects accompanying the eruptions of Bezymianny volcano (Kamchatka), in Natural Disasters: Research, Monitoring, Forecast: V Sakhalin, Young Scientific School, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, June 8–11, 2010, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk: IMGG FEB RAS, 2011, pp. 178–185. Malik N.A. and Moiseenko, K.B., Sensitivity study of eruption source parameters in numerical models for volcanic ash transport and deposition, in Proceedings of the 7th Biennial Workshop on Japan-Kamchatka-Alaska Subduction Processes (JKASP-2011): Mitigating Risk through International Volcano, Earthquake and Tsunami, Science Institute of Volcanology and Seismology FEB RAS (IVS), Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia, August 25th–30th, 2011, pp. 100–101. Malik, N.A. and Ovsyannikov, A.A., The eruption of October 2010 to March 2011 on Kizimen Volcano, Vestnik KRAUNTs, Nauki o Zemle, 2011, no. 1, issue 17, pp. 7–10. Melekestsev, I.V., Ponomareva, V.V, and Volynets, O.N., Kizimen Volcano, Kamchatka: A future St. Helens?, Vulkanol. Seismol., 1992, no. 4, pp. 8–32. Mel’nikov, D.V., Dvigalo, V.N., and Melekestsev, I.V., The 2010–2011 eruption of Kizimen Volcano, Kamchatka: The behavior of eruptive activity and the geologicalgeomorphologic effect inferred from remote sensing data, Vestnik KRAUNTs, Nauki o Zemle, 2011, no. 2, issue 18, pp. 87–101. Moiseenko, K.B. and Malik, N.A., Numerical simulations of atmospheric tephra dispersal and fallout at mesoscale-Implications for assessment of total erupted mass from the December 2006 and 2009 explosive events at Bezymianny Volcano, Kamchatka, in IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly, Forecasting Volcanic Activity, 20–24 July, Kagoshima, Japan, Abstract, 2013, p. 928. Monin, A.S. and Yaglom, A.M., Statisticheskaya gidromekhanika (Statistical Hydromechanics), Part 1, Moscow: Nauka, 1965. Ovsyannikov, A.A. and Malik, N.A., The tephra erupted by Kizimen Volcano in December 2010 to February 2011, in Vulkanizm i svyazannye s nim protsessy (Volcanism and Related Processes), Materials of the regional conference devoted to Volcanologist’s Day, 50 years of the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii, March 30 to April 1, 2011, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii: IViS DVO RAN, 2011, pp. 57–61. Pfeiffer, T., Costa, A., and Macedonio, G., A model for the numerical simulation of tephra fall deposits, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 2005, vol. 140, pp. 273–294. Pielke, R.A., Lyons, W.A., McNider, R.T., et al., Regional and mesoscale meteorological modeling as applied to air-quality studies, in Air Pollution Modeling and Its Applications, VIII, van Dop, H. and Steyn, D. G., Eds., Plenum, 1991, pp. 259–290. Pielke, R.A., Cotton, W.R., Tremback, C.J., et al., A comprehensive meteorological modelling system-RAMS, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 1992, vol. 49, pp. 69–91. Piip, B.I., Kizimen Volcano, Byull. Volcanol. Stantsii na Kamchatke, 1946, no. 13, pp. 22–32. Pouget, S., Bursik, M., Webley, P., et al., Estimation of eruption source parameters from umbrella cloud or downwind plume growth rate, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 2013, vol. 258, pp. 100–112. Pyle, D.M., The thickness, volume and grain size of tephra fall deposits, Bull. Volcanol., 1989, vol. 51, pp. 1–15. Robock, A., Volcanic eruptions and climate, Rev. Geophys., 2000, vol. 38, pp. 191–219. Rose, W.I., Comment on “Another look at the calculation of fallout tephra volumes” by Judy Fierstein and Manuel Nathenson, Bull. Volcanol., 1993, vol. 55, pp. 372–374. Rose, W.I. and Durant, A.J., Fine ash content of explosive eruptions, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 2009, vol. 186, pp. 32–39. Rose, W.I. and Durant, A.J., Fate of volcanic ash: Aggregation and fallout, Geology, 2011, vol. 39, no. 9, pp. 895–896. Rose, W.I., Gu, Y., Watson, I.M., et al., The February–March 2000 eruption of Hekla, Iceland from a satellite perspective, in AGU Geophysical Monograph 139: Volcanism and the Earth’s Atmosphere, Robock, A. and Oppenheimer, C., Eds., ISBN: 0-87590-998-1, 2003, pp. 107–132. Rybin, A.V., Chibisova, M.V., Webley, P., et al., Satellite and ground observations of the June 2009 eruption of Sarychev Peak Volcano, Matua Island, central Kuriles, Bull. Volcanol., 2011, vol. 73(9), pp. 1377–1392. Scollo, S., Folch, A., and Costa, A., A parametric and comparative study of different tephra fallout models, J. Volcanol. Geotherm Res., 2008, vol. 176, pp. 199–211. Scollo, S., Prestifilippo, M., Coltelli, M., et al., A statistical approach to evaluate the tephra deposit and ash concentration from PUFF model forecasts, J. Volcanol. Geotherm Res., 2011, vol. 200, pp. 129–142. Self, S., The effects and consequences of very large explosive volcanic eruptions, Philos. Trans. R. Soc., Ser. A, 2006, vol. 364, pp. 2073–2097. Senyukov, S.L., Droznina, S.Ya., and Kozhevnikova, T.Yu., Identification of ash discharges and estimation of their heights from seismic data for Shiveluch, Karymskii, Kizimen, and Bezymyannyi volcanoes between January 1, 2003 and May 1, 2011, Trudy tret’ei nauchnotekhnicheskoi konferentsii “Problemy kompleksnogo geofizicheskogo monitoringa Dal’nego Vostoka Rossii” (Proc. Third conf. “Problems in Multidisciplinary Geophysical Monitoring of the Russian Far East), Obninsk: GS RAN, 2011, pp. 139–143. Shantser, A.E., Geptner, A.R., Egorova, I.A., et al., The Tumrok volcanogenic rock sequences, their paleomagnetic characteristics and age, Izv. AN SSSR, Ser. Geol., 1969, no. 9, pp. 73–82. Shantser, A.E., Kutyev, F.Sh., Petrov, V.S., and Zubin, M.I., Kizimen Volcano, in Deistvuyushchie vulkany Kamchatki (Active Volcanoes of Kamchatka), vol. 2, Moscow: Nauka, 1991, pp. 16–29. Shirokov, V.A., Estimating the mass and volume of tephra produced by volcanic eruptions, Vulkanol. Seismol., 1985, no. 5, pp. 24–34. Sorem, R.K., Volcanic ash dusters: tephra rafts and scavengers, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 1982, vol. 13, pp. 36–41. Sparks, R.S.J., Bursik, M.I., Carey, S.N., et al., Volcanic Plumes, Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 1997. Suzuki, T., A theoretical model for dispersion of tephra, in Volcanism: Physics and Tectonics, Shimozuru, D. and Yokayama, I., Eds., Tokyo: TERRAPUB, 1983, pp. 95–113. Thorarinsson, S., The eruption of Hekla, 1947–48. II. 3. The tephra fall from Hekla on March 29th, 1947, Visindafélag Íslendinga, 1954, P. 1–68. Tremback, C.J., Lyons, W.A., Thorson, W.P., and Walko, R.L., An emergency response and local weather forecasting software system, Preprints, Eighth Joint Conf. on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology, Nashville, TN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1994, pp. 219–223. Turner, R. and Hurst, T., Factors influencing volcanic ash dispersal from the 1995 and 1996 eruptions of Mount Ruapehu, New Zealand, J. Appl. Met., 2001, vol. 40, pp. 56–69. Walko, R.L. and Tremback, C.J., HYPACT: the Hybrid Particle and Concentration Transport model, User’s Guide, Mission Research Corporation, Ft Collins, CO, 1995. Webley, P.W., Dehn, J., Lovick, J., et al., Near real time volcanic ash cloud detection: Experiences from the Alaska Volcano Observatory, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., Special Issue on Volcanic Ash Clouds, 2009a, vol. 186, pp. 80–91. Webley, P.W., Stunder, B.J.B., and Dean, K.G., Preliminary sensitivity study of eruption source parameter for operational volcanic ash cloud transport and dispersion models—A case study of the August 1992 eruption of the Crater Peak Vent, Mount Spurr, Alaska, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., Special Issue on Volcanic Ash Clouds, 2009b, vol. 186, pp. 109–120. Wen, S. and Rose, W.I., Retrieval of sizes and total masses of particles in volcanic clouds using AVHRR bands 4 and 5, J. Geophys. Res., 1994, vol. 99(D3), pp. 5421–5431. Wilson, L. and Huang, T., The influence of shape on the atmospheric settling velocity of volcanic ash particles, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 1979, vol. 44, pp. 311–324. Zemtsov, A.N., A Study of Solid Dispersed Phase in Eruptive Volcanic Clouds, Extended Abstract of Cand. Sci. (Geol.-Mineral.) Dissertation, Moscow, 1986, 22 pp.