Estimation of Markovian transition probabilities for pavement deterioration forecasting

KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering - Tập 14 Số 3 - Trang 343-351 - 2010
Kiyoshi Kobayashi1, Myungsik Do2, Daeseok Han1
1Kyoto univ.
2Hanbat National Univ.

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Abaza, K. A., Ashur, S. A., and Al-Khatib, I. A. (2004). “Integrated pavement management system with a Markovian prediction model.” J. of Transp. Engrg., Vol. 130, No. 1, pp. 24–33.

Amemiya, T. (1985). Advanced Econometrics, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.

Butt, A. A., Shahin, M. Y., Carpenter, S. H., and Carnahan, J. V. (1994). “Application of Markov process to pavement management systems at network level.” 3rd International Conference on Managing Pavements, TRB, Vol. 2, pp. 159–172.

Cesare, M. A., Santamarina, J. C., Turstra, C. J., and Vanmarcke, E. (1992). “Modeling bridge deterioration with Markov chains.” J. of Transp. Engrg., Vol. 118, No. 6, pp. 821–833.

Chung, S., Hong, T., Han, S. Son, J., and Lee, S. (2006). “Life cycle cost analysis based optimal maintenance and rehabilitation for underground infrastructure management.” KSCE J. of Civil Engineering, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 243–253.

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). (1993). PONTIS technical manual, Publ. No. FHWA-SA-94-031, U.S. Dept. of Transp., Washington, D.C.

Gourieroux, C. (2000). Econometrics of qualitative dependent variables, Cambridge University Press.

Greene, W. H. (1997). Econometric analysis, 3rd. Ed., Macmillan, New York.

Guignier, F. and Madanat, S. (1999). “Optimization of infrastructure systems maintenance and improvement policies.” J. of Infrastructure Systems, Vol. 5, No. 4, pp. 124–134.

Jiang, M., Corotis, R. B., and Ellis, H. (2000). “Optimal life-cycle costing with partial observability.” J. of Infrastructure Systems, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 56–66.

Jiang, Y., Saito, M., and Sinha, K. C. (1989). “Bridge performance prediction model using the Markov chain.” Transp. Res. Rec. 1180, TRB, pp. 25–32.

Kim, S. and Kim N. (2006). “Development of performance prediction models in flexible pavement using regression analysis method” KSCE J. of Civil Engineering, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 91–96.

Lancaster, T. (1990). The econometric analysis of transition data, Cambridge University Press.

Lee, T. C., Judge, G. G., and Zellner, A. (1970). Estimating the parameters of the Markov probability model from aggregate time series data, Amsterdam, North-Holland.

Loizos, A. and Karlaftis, M.G. (2005). “Prediction of pavement crack initiation from in-service pavements: A duration model approach” J. of the Transportation Research Board, No.1940, TRB, pp. 38–42.

Madanat, S. M., Mishalani, R., and Wan Ibrahim, W. H. (1995). “Estimation of infrastructure transition probabilities from condition rating data.” J. of Infrastructure Systems, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 120–125.

Mishalani, R. G. and Madanat, S. M. (2002). “Computation of infrastructure transition probabilities using stochastic duration models.” J. of Infrastructure Systems, Vol. 8, No. 4, pp. 139–148.

Park, S. (2004). “Identifying the hazard characteristics of pipes in water distribution systems by using the proportional hazard model: 2. Applications.” KSCE J. of Civil Engineering, Vol. 8, No. 6, pp. 669–677.

Prozzi, J. A. and Madanat, S. M. (2004). “Development of pavement performance models by combining experimental and field data.” J. of Infrastructure Systems, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 9–22.

Shin, H. (2006). “Development of a semi-parametric stochastic model of asphalt pavement crack initiation.” KSCE J. of Civil Engineering, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 189–194.

Tobin, J. (1958). “Estimation of relationships for limited dependent variables.” Econometrica, Vol. 26, pp. 24–36.

Tsuda, Y., Kaito, K., Aoki, K., and Kobayashi, K. (2005) “Estimating markovian transition probabilities for bridge deterioration forecasting.” JSCE Journal, No.801/IV-73, pp. 69–82 (in Japanese).

Wee, S. and Kim, N. (2006). “Angular fuzzy logic application for pavement maintenance and rehabilitation strategy in Ohio.” KSCE J. of Civil Engineering, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 81–89.

Yang, J., Gunaratne, M., Lu, J. J., and Dietrich, B. (2005). “Use of recurrent Markov chains for modeling the crack performance of flexible pavements.” J. of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 131, No. 11, pp. 861–872.